The 2020 Great Nonlinear Devaluation Fractal Series

At the base of the economic pyramid, consumer saturation ownership of daily used commodities facilitated by easy credit and citizen high personal debt; asset overvaluation of major purchase items facilitated with 1930’s era low interest rates;  historically high corporate debt load with non value added and formerly illegal buy back purchases  of  corporate stock which have been  further  facilitated by  corporate  tax cuts unlinked to product  creation and innovation; financial derivative products exponentializing risks in a nonlinear down market; and unfunded pensions represent  the basis of  a debt dependent crash of historical proportions.  This inevitable and inexorable crash was expected   in 2020 and completed an 1807 US hegemonic Great Saturation Fractal Series of x/2.5x/2.5x :: 36/90/90 years with nadirs in 1842-3 after the panic of 1837 and in 1932 after the crash in 1929.  With the exception of pensions and derivatives, the foundations for the debt dependent asset overvaluation and asset over ownership saturation  1837 and 1929  crashes were similar to the current one.  Now superimposed on that expected 2020 devaluation  is the  sudden unemployment of 20-25  percent of the global workforce secondary to the pandemic.

Starting in February 2020, the ongoing daily decay fractal series  is 10/24/19 of 24 days.  Even with the unlimited support of central banks expect a nonlinear fractal devaluation of 80 percent and more of the global market’s  current valuation.

 

Reduce the Innoculum: Wash Hands with Soap and Water … and Wear Masks

Up to 80 percent of people with coronovirus have mild symptoms; others who later test positive for the antigen and/or antibody may have had no symptoms.
And very likely, those who have had coronovirus and have survived  have developed some degree of immunity memory to recurrent  infection.
Is one of the  primary  differentiating factors between – an overwhelming life and death immune response and a state of  desired mild symptomatology or asymptomatology with possible conferred immunity  – the initial amount(s) (viral loads) of innoculum and the surface area volume of its delivery?
Kindly review the scientific article below.
It makes (common) sense to reduce the initial viral load and the surface area of any potential droplets on the skin with soap and water and further to  reduce the viral load from  any possible aeroslized viral micro particles by use of mask –  medical grade fiber or cortton if not available – either with blockage by a medical grade mask,  or  by partial absorbtion or  attachment to the cotton filaments of a cloth fiber based  mask.
Wearing a mask, soaping one hands for twenty seconds and perhaps  a short  nasal soapy rinse after outside activity makes (common) sense.
Possibly washing the mask with soap and water allows for repeated safe use of the mask.
And does the corona virus in very small inoculum amounts in small volumes and under very controlled and known conditions represent a strategy to gently activate the immune system without triggering an overwhelming immune response which might be caused by a large(er) innoculum,   conferring immunity without great risks?
The Asset Debt Macroeconomic System’s Great daily decay fractal series started on about 15 January 2020 and is a
12/31/31 day decay fractal series: y/2.5y/2.5y. With the stress evidenced in the US repo market starting in September 2019, this January 2020 decline was the expected 89 year corporate, federal, state, financial  and global system debt implosion at  the conclusion of a maximum valuation growth evolution of a US 1807 36/90/89 year : x/2.5x/2.5x Hegemonic Asset Debt macroeconomic valuation cycle. With the concurrent pandemic, asset valuations dependent on massive defaults of debt will collapse at a minimum of 90 percent with the collapse possibly  completed, as opposed to the 1929 great US Second Fractal  collapse with its 11/26-27/26-27 day primary decay fractal series, during the 2020 primary  12/31/31 day decay fractal series.
This profound devaluation will correlate and be post hoc propter hoc ascribed to the very real 30-35 percent unemployment rate caused by the pandemic.
The final interpolated and integrated weekly decay fractal series from the December 2018 low is 10/25/23/15-16 weeks: x/2.5x/2x-2.5x/1.5=1.6x.  A nonlinear drop between 2x and 2.5x of the second 25 week fractal  as described in the main page of this blog is observable.
As a note regarding the 1858 date  and 140 year cycle in the main page. This was errant.  1858 represented an interpolated fractal low valuation  contained in  the 1843 to 1932  90 year US Great Second Fractal.  The US fractal series from the activation of its constitution in about 1790 was:
Intiating US Great Fractal: 1790-1807   18 years (1/2x)
First US Great  Fractal: 1807 to 1842-43        36  years  (x)  ( with peak asset valuation and debt collapse in 1837)
Second US Great Fractal: 1843 to 1932  90 years (2.5x) (with peak valuation in 1929 with well known and described  associated debt collapse)
Third US Great Fractal: 1932 to 2020  89 years ( with 5.1 trillion dollars provided terminally  to an  overvalued market by corporate buy backs, corporate tax cuts, and low interest margin debt.) 

The Bigger Picture: What Matters? The Deterministic Mathematical Fractal Science of Global Asset Debt Macroeconomics

This blog has been dedicated to the proposition  that  the Asset Debt  Macroeconomic system represents  a quantitative science.
 On 19 February 2020, the US Hegemonic Economy, the current proxy for the Global Macroeconomic System , was at its apogee of its 1790  18/36/90/89 year possible asset valuation peak.
Terminal  debt  creation was  facilitated by the US Federal Reserve starting in earnest in September 2019. The Reserve had to add  liquidity to the debt market at that time for the system to function.  The private sector was unable to provide the liquidity during a period of  peak economic growth. The SPX was elevated via that necessary Federal  debt creation  to its 19 February 2020 Macroeconomic valuation equity  peak. The US Federal Reserve had no alternate in September 2019. Its action was as deterministic for the survival of the system as was its recent federal funds rate cut to zero. There was  simply no alternative.
 The system’s final mathematical fractal sequence from the composite equity  low in December 2018 follows a x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x interpolated growth and decay pattern: 11/28/22/15-16 weeks following the exact  fractal pattern described in the 2005 Website Main page of this blog.
“ The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay
curves.  “

 G. Lammert

This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .

The fact that the December 2018 hegemonic macroeconomic terminal growth and decay pattern follows that simple mathematical fractal pattern  provides direct further evidence that the Asset-Debt macroeconomic system is indeed a deterministic self organizing system.   The verified elegantly simple growth and decay fractal  sequences and math elevates the asset debt macroeconomic system  to a science equivalent to the self organizing deterministic natural sciences of  physics and chemistry and biology. The fact that asset debt  macroeconomics follows the self organization of those natural sciences should not be surprising to the scientist or mathematician who is awed by mathematical simplicity and elegance of the observable universe.  The entry on the scene  of a viral pandemic at the time of the expected 1807 36/90/90 year collapse will be  a considerable matter for future historical  review.

Non-Stochastic Saturation Macroeconomics