All posts by Gary Lammert

The 1807 to 2071 US Hegemonic 265 Year Lammert 4 Phase Fractal Asset Debt Macroeconomic Cycle

US initiating fractal: 18 years (1/2x) 1790-1807

US First Fractal Series: 36 years (x) 1807-1842

US Second Fractal Series:  91 years (2.5x)  1842-1932

US Third Fractal Series: 87 years to peak (near 2.5x)1932- 26 January 2018

Expected US 4th  Fractal Series: 54 years (1.5x) 2018-2071

Initiating US 3rd Fractal Daily  Decay Series: Exactly the same as for  the US Second Fractal Initiating  Decay Series.


A Deterministic Self Assembly Asset Debt Macroeconomic System Governed by Elegantly Simple Fractal Laws of Growth and Decay

The daily, weekly, monthly, and   yearly valuations  of the Global Composite Equities represent the summation of all of the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System’s  interrelational dynamics. Concurrent with the global system’s  peak composite equity valuation  saturation area, occurs the base populations’ durable items asset owership and debt saturation. This is followed  by a nonlinear system devolution, liquidation of unrepayable private  debt, decreased  economic activity further increasing the private debt burden with  reinforcing feedback until the system’s  bottom equilibrium point is reached. At this time in history the private sector is encumbered by record credit card debt, higher education debt, automobile debt, the ongoing and accelerating loss of jobs with robotics, and in the US: the loss of consumption of higher end assets by a bolus of retiring boomers.

The major interrelational elements of the system are limited : market and now mostly central bank controlled interest rates, asset prices,  number of jobs to support new and ongoing  debt,  base economy asset and debt consumption saturation, over investment of new technologies and asset products,  and central bank  money creation to maintain entitlement programs and government deficit spending, On a composite level corporations expand or contract activity based on the private consumer and governments’ ability to expand debt.

The ongoing valuations of the composite equities are  the integral sum  product of all of the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System’s major interrelational elements.

The Global System composite equity valauations increase or decrease   in elegantly simple time dependent  fractal patterns: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5y; x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x;  y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y; y/2-2.5y/1.5-1.6y; y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1-1.5y. where ‘x’  represent  time dependent units of growth and ‘y’ represent time dependent units of decay.

These  fractal patterns of self assembly represent the operative mathematical  laws or simple equations of the global  macroeconomic system just as the laws and equations of physics represent the relationships between the  forces and particles of the knowable  universe.