All posts by Gary Lammert

Saturation Macroeconomics Deterministic Concepts: X/2.5x/2x/1.5y :: 6/15/12/1 of 9 days

1. De novo new debt created mostly by the government(citizen based entitlement programs, defense spending, cash for clunkers, bailouts for financials …  expands the money supply; expands the economy and creates wage paying jobs at the base of the economic pyramid that creates a basis for expansion of the citizen debt  based economy for the purchase of service economy based items and durable goods which further telescopes growth of jobs and wages  in those sectors. Lowering interest rates enhances debt creation for all debtor parties. Negative interest rates: changing 1 or 2% for guaranteeing repayment to holders of monies denominated in 1’s and 0’s in  electronic accounts would generate 100-200 billion on 10 trillion of US debt. The primary pathway for the Asset-Debt  Global Macroeconomic system to survive is for trending lower and lower interest rates. Negative interest rates  allow governmental debt expansion an equilibrium point , and in game theory allow the system to survive for the wealthy who are paying the negative interest rates but who have the most to lose, and for the citizens occupying the base of pyramid to survive in a wage based, citizen debt based, ultra low interest rate environment where more and more jobs will be lost to the growing  robotic-computer element.

2. Debt based available money flows preferentially  into the most leveraged and advantaged ‘investment’ vehicle. For the unsophisticated citizen masses  and their representative institutional investment companies  (who don’t routinely short options on call spreads between June 2020 cattle shorted futures and long Nov 2028 Libor rates) the equity markets represents relatively great leverage with tax free dividends, untaxed growth of equity valuation until sold, and(in the US)  a 15 per cent tax rate on profit on sold long held equities. The possibility of investing in an Apple-like stock provides additional citizen-based interest and incentive.

3. For the masses equities or ETF’s representing commodity/interest rate elements are the best investment vehicles in the long run.  Patterned devaluations occur in the global interconnected  trading market at saturation areas based on prevailing interest rates, investor population saturation, and citizen based  population saturation of ‘owned ‘ durable goods and accumulated interest based debt(car debt, student debt, credit card debt, mortgage debt), and asset bubble pricing relative to wages and living expenses. At or near the system’s saturation point, debt based money growth velocity changes rapidly from positive, to less positive,  to zero, and to negative. The timing of these elements are qualitatively and likely quantitatively knowable by those(any intelligent entity) with an interest scrutinizing the ‘economic data’ . During the patterned devaluation of equities , ‘various unsophisticated and sophisticated shorting mechanisms ‘ allow varying degrees of very large unleveraged and leveraged profits.

4. Growth and Decay of valuations of equity, commodity and interest rate trading vehicles occur in a self-assembly  patterned fractal manner that can be easily observed in  minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly,  and decadely time based units that compose the long and short term  Trading Entities’ valuation histories. Growth evolves to a saturation point based on the elements described above, and thereafter, decays to a selling saturation point where growth begins again. The terminal decay fractal forms the mathematical basis of the initiating first growth fractal …. and vice versa at the saturation valuation peak. Marked nonlinearities such as the 6 May 2010 flash crash are expected and conform and confirm the patterned science of the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System.