May 15 2025: The final 3 day SPX lower high blow-off 31 day 3rd Fractal Countertrend Growth Series.

The German Dax propelled by exiting US equity money and new German defense deficit to GDP spending exceeding 2 percent has recently reached record peaks.

From 3 February 2025 the SPX is self-ordered as a 14/31/28 of 31/20 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x’/1.5x’ 4 phase crash decay fractal series. The 1st 3 Feb 2025 14 day fractal is a growth series, the second fractal ending 7 April is a decay series, the 3rd Fractal is a 31 day countertrend growth series and the final 20 day 4th Fractal starting 20 May is a crash decay series ending about 17 June 2025.

This fractal series is interpolated within a final peak SPX valuation series starting 27 October 2023 and ending 17 June 2025, a x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 55/139/136/82 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series peaking on day 136 of the 3rd Fractal on 19 Feb 2025.

This is interpolated within the terminal portion of a 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series which is interpolated within a US hegemonic 1807 36/9/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series.

The terminal 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractal portion of the 3 February 2025 to 17 June 2025 decay series will become the first fractal of 4-phase fractal series ending in 2026.

The US ten year bond is undergoing a 3 day lower high blow-off yielding lower high interest rate yields.

The incipient crash fractal sequence of the 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series which includes the terminal 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x 19 February 2025 SPX peak valuation is a 3 February 14/32/26-32/20 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x’-2.5x’/1.5x’ 4-phase Lammert Fractal Series.

The Case for a Self-Assembly Mathematical Asset-Debt System

The purpose of this website for the last 20 years has been to demonstrate that the asset-debt macroeconomic system is self-ordered by deterministic elegantly simple mathematical laws of time-based fractal growth and decay of its easily tradable assets. This fractal self assembly process is included as a primer at the end of the post.

The 1807 US hegemony commodity and equity valuations are self-ordered in a series of mostly nadirs and a 3rd fractal peak in a 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year fractal series with lows in 1807/1842-43/1932, a projected low in 2074, and a 90 year 3rd Fractal peak in November 2021. The 2020 US government 3.13 trillion dollar deficit spending that combated Covid represented 14.7 % deficit to GDP spending which was followed by a 2.78 trillion deficit spending or a 11.7% deficit to GDP spending in 2021. This historically high peacetime deficit spending (by comparison 1942 was 12.2%) resulted in a 90 year US 3rd fractal composite equity high in Nov 2021 and a subsequent higher high on 19 Feb 2025..

After an interim low on 27 October 2023, the SPX has followed a 3-phase maximum growth series of 55/139/136 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x with a peak valuation on 19 February 2025 and a secondary lower high peak on
day 138 or 2.5x on 21 February 2025.

If the SPX follows a similar fractal pattern as the US 1807 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal pattern ending in 2074, the 27 Oct 2023 SPX pattern will end with a interim low on 17 June 2025 or 55/139/136/83 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x.

This is an interim low of a interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series ending in 2026.

The 139 day 2nd fractal in yellow below shows the characteristic 2nd nonlinear gapped lower lows between days 137 and 138 and between days 138 and 139 of its terminal portion just as described 20 years ago in the main page of the Economic Fractalist.

The 3rd (orange) and 4th(red) fractals are shown in more detail below. After a 3-phase 5 August 2024 18+/48/47 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal series, the final blow-off for the SPX occurred in two sequential smaller 3-phase series: a 3/8/6 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal growth series and a final 3/6/5 day :: x/2x/1.6x series ending with a peak valuation on 19 February 2025.

The 4th fractal is shown below is a composite of 4 sequential fractal series: One: a 19 February 5/13/11/7 day 4-phase decay fractal series with an 11 day interim counter trend growth 3rd fractal and a 7 day 4th decay fractal with gapped lower low nonlinearity between days 4 and 5 and 5 and 6 ending with a nadir on day 7 and 7 April. Two and Three are counter-trend growth series of 2/4/4/3 days and 3/6/8 days ending on 9 May 2025. Four is expected to be similar to the 19 February 2025 4 phase series: a 9 May 4/10/10/6 days series with counter trend growth on the 3rd 10 day fractal and a crash 6 day 4th fractal ending 17 June 2024. See below.

Two interpolated three phase y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y fractal decay series are shown below:

A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Fractal Growth and Decay of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities

Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years and 1982 13/32 of 33/32/-33/20 years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself.

On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above.

Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series:

a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x

In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals.

The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.

With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.