All posts by Gary Lammert

The Remarkable Mathematical Order of the Global Asset Debt Macroeconomic System

Is there a (remarkable) mathematical  order to the global asset debt macroeconomic system?
Observe the ordered valuation patterns using the underlying asymptotic line defining the  low valuations of the grouped Lammert fractals since the March 2009 lows for the hegemonic Wilshire 5000 and the other leading global EuroAsian Equity markets.
Observe the simple growth and decay fractal patterns described in the 2005 and 2009 postings:  2/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and y/2-2.5y/2-2-5y and ask if the observed  subsequent patterns have occurred  by chance or  rather are they transpiring by inexorably  deterministic causal mechanisms inherent to  natural intrinsic fractal ordering of the asset debt global macroeconomic system?

SATURDAY, MAY 9, 2009

Slide2Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics – A New Science

2005 LAMMERT NONSTOCHASTIC SATURATION MACROECONOMICS

THIS BLOG EXPLORES THE NEW SCIENCE OF NONSTOCHASTIC SATURATION MACROECONOMICS, A MAJOR OBSERVATIONAL DISCOVERY. THE MACROECOMONY IS A SELF BALANCING COMPLEX SYSTEM OF ASSETS AND DEBT OPERATING ACCORDING TO SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL LAWS OF GROWTH AND DECAY OF ITS ASSET VALUATION CURVES:: X/2.5X/2X/1.5X AND Y/2-2.5Y/1.5-2.5Y

Now consider  a minor  aberration in the underlying asymptotic low to low composite equity valuations caused by ex nihilo money printing and  near zero interests by the Federal Reserve and in Europe negative interest rates aka quantitative easing, and stimulus programs such as cash for clunkers and created cash for unfunded, nonperforming aliens entering European and American borders lured  by social support  program and   fiat Euro and US dollars.
Now consider the long pattern of the great hegemonic Roman Republic  replacement, the United States of America, protected by the expanses of  two great oceans from the  local ravishes of the   effects of World War I and 2 so strongly  witnessed  by other participating European and Asian winning and losing nations, losing  millions of their countrymen and women and children  and their infrastructure.
The hegemonic fractals series of the US appears to begin with  an initiating fractal of 18 years from 1790 to 1807 nearly concurrent with the ratification of the US constitution.
Since 1807 there has been a 37/90/87 of 90 year blowoff of a x/2.5x/2.5x pattern which would end in 2020-21.
The March 2009 Wilshire  pattern is a 5/13/10/7  and  3/7/6 months or 45 months base fractal.
The second is a 8/17/17 or a 40 month fractal,
followed by a 10/25 of 25/1 of 20-25 month blow-off fractal.
For a 10/25/20 month x/2.5x/2x Wilshire fractal , this would represent a 45/92 month ::  x/2x fractal beginning in March 2009.
This makes qualitative and quantitative sense under the larger  umbrella of a (18)36-37/90/89-90/54 year x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x United States Hegemonic Fractal Series.
A final 54 year expanding  lateral decay fractal (1.5x the 36 year 1807 to 1842/43 base) and ending in  about 2073 qualitatively makes sense given the dynamics of global system. There is no limit
to competing money creation and negative interests among intustrialized nations with voters having earned promised retirement entitlements.  This will not end in a 1932 global depression scenario. Entitled citizens will recieve their entitlements
through necessary and  appropriate money expansion.
The global economy will persist.
A prudent  global monetary banking policy would be to raise interest rates to control the final speculative blow-off.  With the coutervailing political needs, this likely will not happen.
Anticipate  tulip valuations in the final 20 month blow-off period of the 267 year US hegemonic asset debt system.

Remembering 11 October 2007: 20 21 September 2018: The SPX Two Day Double Opening Gap Blow-off and Final 21 September 2018 Key Reversal Day

SPX 3 day top

 

Remember  the key reversal day on 11 October 2007 for the Housing Bubble Debt Driven Equity Market?

21 September 2018 : the 1932 US Hegemony Third Fractal Peak US Equity Valuation.

What Causes Peak Asset Valuation Decline?  Global System Peak Accumulative Debt relative to first derivative asset possession, asset overvaluation, and total employment.

 

Nonlinearity in Complex Systems

The US 87 year 3rd fractal  will very likely undergo  major nonlinear decay  in a span of next 9 trading  days: in a  3/5 of 8/6-7  day decay fractal. The June 2018 Global Asset Debt System Nonlinear Decay is following  a complex 17/42/34/27 day x/2.5y/2x/1.6y reflexic decay fractal.