Quantitative Saturation Fractal Macroeconomics:  The March 2020 Y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y :: 33/72/68 of 72 Week Decay Series And The Four Week July 2023 Equity, Commodity, and Crypto Global Crash 

Above: x/2.5x/2x Nikkei Growth followed by y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y Decay

Observable within the US hegemony 1807 great fractal pattern of x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 years with equity valuation lows in 1842-43 and 1932, and third fractal 90 year peak valuation in November 2021.

Also observable is an interpolated  1981-82 fractal pattern of 13/30 years :: x/2-2.5x.  This 1981-82 first and second fractal series began with US central bank QT resulting in a May-July 1981 peak prime rate of 20.5% to control inflation.

Historical %-GDP Deficit US defence spending initially maintained composite equity prices. Thereafter. over the next 40-42 years – falling interest rates, globalization of manufacturing with grossly cheaper labor cost, transoceanic shipment of goods, trade of hegemony petro-dollars and Euros for those manufactured goods,  repeal of 1930’s investment laws, looser bank lending regulations, lower corporate taxes, increased corporate buy-backs, financial engineering with tranching of CDO’s and CLO’s, gross assessment and lending fraud, and US, Euro, and Chinese central bank QE and lending programs with low, near zero and negative sovereign bond rates – have pushed composite equity valuations and property valuation to the November 8 2021 zenith and recent secondary peak valuations.

During this 40 year time plus period, there have been over-investment bubbles propelled by the  above cited stimulus modalities  in 1987, 2000, 2008, 2020, and 2021.

For the interpolated 1981-82 first and second fractal series, a sudden nonlinear ending is expected between 2x and 2.5x of the x base fractal. With x equal to 13 year, the nonlinear ending is expected between 26 and 32 years.

The US, Japanese, and Chinese equity markets; cryptocurrencies, gold, and  global CRB indices  all  have synchronized monthly and weekly  fractal patterns, for crash devaluations over the next 4 trading weeks.

The current weekly and monthly  fractal patterns began at the March 2020 global covid pandemic low valuations in March 2020. In an unprecedented fashion, the US money supply over 12-18 months was increased by 25 % resulting in inflation and thereafter decreased by 5 percent in the QT phase to control the resulting inflation. The 2020-2021 unprecedented increase in money supply, low interest rates and MBS programs have resulted in a supple bubble of equity and property valuations.

The y/2-2.5y/2-2.5 decay fractal series for the composites from the March 2020 low are 14/72/72 weeks. Currently the decay series is 33/72/68 of 72 weeks.

The Nikkei and its proxy DXJ fund have done among the best of global equities with a 33/72/66-67 week :: x/2-2.5x/2x valuation growth pattern.  See above green graph.

DXJ and Nikkei have matching first and second fractal patterns: 33 weeks: 6/15/14 weeks and 72 weeks 14/30/30 weeks. DXJ’s current  67-68 third fractal blow-off.

DXJ diverges slightly from the Nikkei and is composed of a 10/21/25 week fractal series followed by a blow.-off series of 4/8-9/4 of 8 weeks for a total of 72 weeks. The final four weeks  are expected to complete a composite decay series of 33/72/72 weeks or 8/18/17 months. See above red graph.

For the Hang Seng index the March 2020 first and second fractals are likewise composed of 33/72 weeks. The third 72 week decay fractal is composed of 10/25/25/11 of 15 weeks. The second 25 week fractal of this x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x series took the HSI below its 2011 low – a telltale valuation sign of what s to come in the next four weeks.

Fractal patterns predict a Chinese property valuation crash and banking/equity crash (Shanghai Property Index and Bank of Shanghai/Shanghai Composite)  over the next four weeks. These patterns will be self-evident and detailed in follow-on postings as will the closing fractal patterns for crypto, gold, oil, and the CRB composite.

That the macroeconomy operates in a self-organizing fashion allows the label of a science to its intrinsic nature.

The Nikkei’s Low to High March 2020 to June 2023 x/2-2.5x/2x :: 33/72/66 Week Final Valuation Blow-off Growth – and Expected Valuation Collapse

The Global macroeconomy is tightly interwoven with the use of central bank debt to create job growth and maintain forward prosperty. The Japanese Nikkei has expanded in valuation since the global banks’ unprecedented QE program following the Covid pandemic.

Nikkei valuation growth since March 2020 has followed a perfect self-assembly Lammert fractal growth pattern first described in the 2005 face page of this web site. A three phase growth fractal series of x/2-2.5x/2x :: 33/72/66 weeks is easily observable in the above Nikkei March 2020 to June 2023 weekly charts with the 3 fractal series delineated by green curvilinear lines.

The three fractals making up this series are a series of sub fractals:

33 week first fractal: composed of a 6/15/14 week: x/2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series

72 week second fractal : composed of 14/30/30 week: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series with a second fractal characteristic nonlinear lower low gap between week 71 and 72, corresponding to between week 29 and week 30 of the third subfractal and described in the 2005 face page.

66 week third fractal composed of a 15/30/23 week fractal series; the 23 week final third fractal is composed of two weekly subseries: 3/6/4 weeks and 3/7/6 weeks.

A 7 week crash devaluation would complete a 15/30/30 week third fractal and result in a 33/72/73 week decay series dating from the March 2020 low. A final 42 week self assembly would complete a 33/72/73/42 week :: x/2-25x/2-2.5x/1.5x’ fractal series and complete the Global QT equity phase ( as interest rates are lowered during the phase of job loss, macroeconomic recession, equity and commodity decline)

The Nikkei’s final 23 weeks of growth of 3/6/4 and 3/7/6 weeks correspond to 11/25/16 days :: x/2.5x/1.5x and 11/27/27 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x.

The Nikkei’s final 3/15/2023 11/27/27 day blow-off growth fractal corresponds to a 3/13/2023 Wilshire 12/27/30 day :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x final growth fractal.

From its March 2020 low the Wilshire grew in a QE 15/37/38 week x/2.5x/2.5x maximum fractal fashion to its November 8 2021 1807 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal series maximum growth high valuation. Consumer-inflation- fighting QT began 4 October 2021 with an 18/38/36 week :: x/2-2.5x/2x reflexive second fractal decay and third fractal high matching the Nikkei June 15/16 2023 high. A wilshire subsequent decay fractal of 18/38/43 weeks :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y would match the intermediate ending of a Nikkei 33/72/73 week decay series, the third 73 week fractal made of a 15/30/30 week :: y/2y/2y fractal series.

Global equities can be expected to collapse over the next 7 weeks and in a fractal manner. Fractal decay possibilities include a 7/15-17/17-15 day decay series :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y or a 8/18-20/12 day decay series :: y/2-2.5y/1.5y. Chinese, US and European real estate valuations and equity valuations are grossly overpriced compared to ongoing mortgage rates, US ten year bonds, wages, and outstanding composite private, corporate, and individual debt to GDP ratio’s.

Be prepared for a 1981-1982 13/30 year first and second fractal x/2-2.5x nonlinear second fractal corrective nonlinear devaluation reckoning.

The Wilshire’s March 2020 Historical Sequential QE/QT Two Phase Self Assembly Process Composed of Two Fractal Series: 15/37/31 Weeks and 18/38/40-41 Weeks, Respectively; The Wilshire’s 1/13/2023 Final x/2.5x/2.5x ::12/27/26-27 Day Blow-off Valuation Fractal Growth Series

Since its March 2020 Covid low valuation, the Wilshire’s valuation growth has been stimulated by unprecedented global central bank historical QE money and MBS credit creation and followed and limited thereafter by  historical QT tightening.

Near annual money supply increased by 25% and thereafter decreased by 4.5 %. These extremes of money/credit creation and contraction caused the self assembly of two sequential fractal series in the global hegemony’s composite Wilshire: a growth series of15/37/31 weeks and a reflexive growth, decay, final growth and decay series of 18/38/40-41 weeks.

This website has attempted to show that global equity and commodity valuations – under the umbrella of supply and demand of property, goods, and credit and more recently of greater central bank influence and manipulation of money and credit supply – grow and decay in elegantly simple well defined optimal self-assembly time based quantitative fractal patterns.

From its March 2020 low  valuation, the Wilshire’s valuation grew in a rapid  first phase 15/37/31 week :: x/2.5x/2x QE   fashion, followed by a second QT phase of final  growth, decay, and secondary growth fashion in a September 2021 18/38/35 of 35-36 week to peak secondary growth fractal series of x/2-2.5x.2x , and collapsing in the final 5 weeks of a composite 18/38/40-41 week decay series: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y.

The September 2021 18 week base fractal was composed of a 3/8/6/4 fractal series.  The 38 week second fractal was composed of a 7/15/18 week series. The third 35-36 week fractal to final growth valuation was composed of two growth series 4/8/8/5 weeks and 3/7/6-7 weeks.

The final 1/13/2023 12/27/26-27 day :: x/2.5x/2.5.x growth pattern, composing the 3/7/6-7 week fractal series, matches  an 1807 x/2.5x/2.5x :: 36/90/90 year series peaking November 8,2021.

This  November 2021 peak was the 37 week of a 37 week third fractal of an interpolated 15/37/37 week :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal series from the March 2020 low. and week 5 of the second 8 week fractal of the September 2021 18 week base composed of a 3/8/6/4 week series.

The gapped higher high blow-off of the 1/13/2023 final growth series occurred between 5/31/2023 and 6/2/2023 and can currently be seen on a monthly basis between month 9 and 10 (May and June 2023) of  an interpolated September 2021 4/10/10 month reflexive growth/decay/final growth series.

A nonlinear second fractal 2x-2.5x valuation decay ending would fit an interpolated 1981-1982 13/29-32 year first and second fractal series :: x/2-2.5x.