An Alternative Global Grand Fractal Asset-Debt Macroeconomic Growth and Decay Pattern
The Asset Debt Global Macroeconomy growth and decay of it’s debt dependent assets and those asset valuations are deterministic and self assembly into highly regular fractal units and patterns – just as galaxies, stars, and planets fractally self-assemble from the gravitational forces on massive clouds of precursor hydrogen gas.
Fractals are interpolated units and confluent occurences – one cycle merges with the next.
Rather the previously described (18)36/90/89 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x three phase fractal series model; an alternate grouping is apparent. That alternative interpolated grouping is a 1790 18 year initiating fractal followed by two 36 year sequential sub-fractals forming a 71 year base Great First Fractal. The US Second Great Fractal consists of two sub-fractals of 56 + 89 years respectively for a current Great Second Fractal total length of 144 years. More simply from 1807, a First and Second Great Fractal series of 71 and 144 years :: x/2-2.5x are apparent with the first 71 year Grand Fractal defining itself with the equity market valuation low bottoming in 1877.
Again from the observed economic nadir activity in 1877, this 71 year (x) First Great Fractal and the current (2-2.5x) Second Great Fractal form an 1807 two phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x, with an expected great nonlinear collapse defining the Second Great Fractal as per the main page of this website. This makes empirical sense and is at least as probable as the 1807 three phase series: 36/90/89 years ::x/2.5x/2.5x year previously identified.
The United States’ Asset-Debt Macroeconomic cyclical history since 1790: a brief summary.
After a 1790 US initiating fractal of 18 years ending in the panic of 1807, two sequential 36 year US sub-fractal cycles self-assembled. The first 36 year cycle was caused by over investment and speculation in land acquired by Jefferson’s 1803 Louisiana purchase. Individual state and bank local money creation and over-investment peaked and collapsed in the panic of 1837 with an economic/commodity nadir in 1842. The second 36 year cycle was caused by US railroad over-investment and speculation with global financial involvement which peaked with gross overbuilding and collapsed in the panic of 1873 with a nadir in stock valuations in 1877.
The panic of 1873 was a world wide event resulting in US depression level unemployment rates of 14% in the US and nearly 25% in New York City. Before the great depression of the 1930’s, the decade after the panic of 1873 was known as America’s first great depression.
America’s Second Great Fractal started at the nadir in 1877. The US Second Great Fractal is composed of two sub-fractals: a 56 year first sub-fractal with a nadir market valuation in 1932, and a 89 year current second sub-fractal.
The second sub-fractal starting in 1932 is composed of two further sub-fractals: a 51 year 10-11/21-22/21-22 (x/2x/2x) year sub-fractal ending in 1982 and the current 1982-2020 9/20/12 (x/2-2.5x/1.5X’) 39 year sub-fractal. [X’ = 1.5 times {the length of observed 2-2.5x second fractal cycle(20 years) divided by 2.5}]
The first 1932 to 1982 51 year sub-fractal was fueled by ‘over-investment’ in World War II, post war Marshall plan spending, continued US military industrial complex cold war spending, and new technologies, principally, the transistor.
The second 1982-2020 second sub-fractal was fueled by 38 years of continuously and drastically falling US and global sovereign debt interest rates, new microchip and cable technologies and internet companies bubble; a historical property bubble, the emergence of China as the world’s dominant manufacturer with acceptance of other country’s sovereign debt for its products; transoceanic shipping; the emergence of the Euro, underwriting both good and very bad Euro projects; and the necessary global deficit spending, money creation, quantitative easing, and zero rate interest policies associated with the 2008-2009 housing collapse; with the 2019-2020 corporate debt collapse, and with the current COVID’s global stimulus plans.
The January thru March 2020 global equity valuation collapse occurred in an easily recognizable quantitative fractal decay manner: 6/15/14 days :: y/2.5/2.5y days.
3 trillion dollars in US COVID stimulus deficit spending and near zero rates with some sovereigns offering negative rates have caused another x/2.5x/2.5x fractal equity valuation bubble growth rise from the March 2020 lows.
Tesla at a PE ratio of about 1100 provides a scope of the magnitude of the current bubble valuations.
As of Sunday 25 October 2020
From the March 2020 low the current fractal growth progression as of 25 October 2020 is: 27/67/61 of 66-67 days where x/2.5x/2.5x peak growth will rapidly translate into y/2.5y/2.5y nonlinear valuation collapse.
27 day first fractal: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x fractal pattern ::
4/10/10/6 days
67 day second fractal: x/2x/1.5x fractal pattern:
15/32/23 days
15(3/7/7) /// 32(7/16/11) /// 23(4/8/8/6) days
66-67 day third fractal: x/2.5x/2.5xy fractal pattern
12/29/22 of 27-28 days
12(2/5/5/3) /// 29(5/13/13)// 27-28 4/10/10/1 of 6-7 days
or 12(2/5/5/3) /// 29(5/13/13)// 27-28 5/12/7 of 12-13 days
Historical deterministic 144 year US Second Fractal Nonlinear Valuation Collapse appears to be at hand.
A 90 percent valuation drop over the equivalent of the next five to six trading days would be consistent with the conclusion of a 144 year Great Second Fractal starting in 1877.