A Coming US Hegemonic 1807 71/144 year :: x/2-2.5x Second Fractal Collapse? The Case for the Panic of 1873-77 as the End of an American 71 Year Great First Fractal Base (x).


An Alternative Global Grand Fractal Asset-Debt Macroeconomic Growth and Decay Pattern

The Asset Debt Global Macroeconomy growth and decay of it’s debt dependent assets and those asset valuations are deterministic and self assembly into highly regular fractal units and patterns – just as galaxies, stars, and planets fractally self-assemble from the gravitational forces on massive clouds of precursor hydrogen gas.

Fractals are interpolated units and confluent occurences – one cycle merges with the next. 

Rather the previously described (18)36/90/89 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x three phase fractal series model; an alternate grouping is apparent. That alternative interpolated grouping is a 1790 18 year initiating fractal  followed by two 36 year sequential sub-fractals forming a 71 year base Great First Fractal. The US Second Great Fractal consists of two sub-fractals of 56 + 89 years respectively  for a current Great Second Fractal  total length of 144 years.  More simply  from 1807,  a First and Second Great Fractal  series of 71 and 144 years  :: x/2-2.5x are apparent  with the first 71 year Grand Fractal defining itself with the equity market valuation low bottoming  in 1877. 

Again from the observed economic nadir activity in 1877, this 71 year (x) First Great Fractal and the current (2-2.5x) Second Great  Fractal form an 1807 two phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x, with an expected great nonlinear collapse defining the Second Great Fractal as per the main page of this website. This  makes empirical sense and is at least as probable as the 1807 three phase series:  36/90/89 years ::x/2.5x/2.5x year previously identified. 

The United States’ Asset-Debt Macroeconomic cyclical history since 1790: a brief summary.

After a 1790 US  initiating fractal of 18 years ending in the panic of 1807,  two sequential 36 year US sub-fractal  cycles  self-assembled. The first 36 year cycle was caused by over investment  and speculation in land acquired by Jefferson’s 1803 Louisiana purchase. Individual state and  bank local money creation and over-investment  peaked  and collapsed in the panic of 1837 with an economic/commodity  nadir in 1842.   The second 36 year cycle  was caused by US railroad over-investment and speculation with global financial involvement  which peaked with gross overbuilding  and collapsed in the panic of 1873 with a nadir in stock valuations in 1877.

The panic of 1873 was a world wide event resulting in US depression level unemployment rates of 14% in the US and nearly 25% in New York City. Before the great depression of the 1930’s,  the decade after the panic of 1873 was known as America’s first great depression.

America’s  Second Great Fractal started at the nadir in 1877. The US Second Great Fractal is composed of two sub-fractals: a 56 year first sub-fractal with a nadir market valuation in 1932, and a 89 year current second sub-fractal.

The second sub-fractal starting in 1932 is composed of two further sub-fractals: a  51 year 10-11/21-22/21-22 (x/2x/2x) year sub-fractal ending in 1982 and the current 1982-2020 9/20/12  (x/2-2.5x/1.5X’) 39 year sub-fractal.   [X’ = 1.5 times {the length  of observed 2-2.5x second fractal cycle(20 years) divided by 2.5}]

The first 1932 to 1982 51 year sub-fractal was fueled by  ‘over-investment’ in World War II, post war Marshall plan spending, continued  US military industrial complex cold war spending, and new technologies, principally, the transistor.

The second 1982-2020  second sub-fractal  was fueled by 38 years of continuously and drastically falling US and global sovereign debt interest rates, new microchip and cable technologies and internet companies bubble; a historical  property bubble, the emergence of China as the world’s dominant manufacturer with acceptance of other country’s sovereign debt for its products; transoceanic shipping;  the emergence of the Euro, underwriting both good and very bad Euro projects; and the necessary global  deficit spending, money creation, quantitative easing, and zero rate interest policies associated with the 2008-2009 housing collapse; with the 2019-2020 corporate debt collapse, and with the current COVID’s global  stimulus  plans. 

The  January thru March 2020 global equity valuation collapse occurred in an easily recognizable quantitative fractal decay manner: 6/15/14 days  :: y/2.5/2.5y days.

3 trillion dollars in US COVID stimulus deficit spending and near zero rates  with some sovereigns offering negative rates  have caused another x/2.5x/2.5x fractal equity valuation bubble growth rise from the March 2020 lows.

Tesla at a PE ratio of about 1100 provides a scope of the  magnitude of the current bubble valuations. 

As of Sunday 25 October 2020

From the March 2020 low the  current fractal growth progression as of 25 October 2020 is: 27/67/61 of 66-67 days   where x/2.5x/2.5x peak growth will rapidly translate into y/2.5y/2.5y nonlinear valuation  collapse.

27 day first fractal:  x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x fractal pattern ::

4/10/10/6 days  

67 day second fractal: x/2x/1.5x fractal pattern:

15/32/23 days 

15(3/7/7) ///  32(7/16/11) /// 23(4/8/8/6) days  

66-67 day third fractal:  x/2.5x/2.5xy fractal pattern

12/29/22 of 27-28 days 

 12(2/5/5/3) /// 29(5/13/13)// 27-28 4/10/10/1 of 6-7 days 

or 12(2/5/5/3) /// 29(5/13/13)// 27-28  5/12/7 of 12-13 days 

Historical deterministic 144 year US Second Fractal Nonlinear Valuation  Collapse appears to be  at hand.

A 90 percent valuation  drop over the equivalent of the next five to six trading days would be  consistent with the conclusion of a 144 year Great Second Fractal starting in 1877.

Equity Peak Saturation at a maximum second fractal growth of 2.5x (103 days) to the March 2020 Low Valuation Base of 41 days and at a US 30 Year bond of 1.59 percent … Will the US 30 Year Bond Turn Negative Within the Next 8 trading days?

The US hegemony is following a 1790 (1/2x initiating fractal)/x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x pattern :: correlating to a 18/36/90/90/54 year fractal pattern. 

The higher and lower high composite equity peak valuations of the global asset debt macroeconomic system are completely deterministic and grow  in time  dependent fractal order to a peak valuation level. Thereafter decay and devaluation occur also in a highly ordered fractal pattern.

Those equity valuations are dependent on long term sovereign  interests rates.  And because of the accumulated enormous unrepayable bad debt load and  entitlement system, those long term sovereign interest rates  over the next 54 years for the US hegemony will negative or close to zero. 

Just like the hegemonic Roman Emperors, Senate and financial system operating in concert over 2000 thousand years ago  debased their currency with base metals, the hegemonic American federal reserve, executive,  and legislative and funding  branch  are, of necessity, debasing its currency with negative or near-zero long term interest rates. And this is the only way forward to maintain the system. The necessary goal is the maintenance  of 401k equity valuations, which provide the glue and the basis for wealth and spending, required  for a principally service-line American  economy.

From the March 2020 low : two interpolated daily  fractals:

1). 13/29/32 days   and  23/50 of 58 days

2) 13/29(41 days)  and 32//  23(4/8/8/6)//50 (9/23/20) days  of 58 days

or x/2.5x  :: 41/103 days  to (secondary) peak valuation

with collapse devaluation 32/72 of 80 days … over the next 8 trading days