The 1982 13/31 of 32 Year Second Fractal Crash … Near The Top of the March 2020 Third Fractal


Interpolated within the US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year X/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series, is an expected 1982 13/32 year second fractal nonlinear crash. The US ten year note has been inverted with the 3 month treasury for 570 days close to the 600 days in 1928 and 1929. A major recession is on the horizon.

Gold in USD has reached a March 2001 51/128/102 month :: x/2.5x/2x perfect growth fractal.

So much distortion of normal money expansion and debt expansion was caused by the 2020 global central banking QE/money printing response to the world-wide pandemic. Over two years 4.7 trillion dollars were created outright and placed on the Fed’s balance sheet. The MBS program with its 2.5-3% mortgages added (inflated) within two years an extra 100,000 dollars to the value of a US residential or 14 trillion dollars for the 140 million US residentials. There is an effort by the central bank to facilitate second mortgages so that newly inflated wealth can be extracted.

While within the asset debt macroeconomic system , fractals self organize into the two basic patterns of x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x, the distortion of unprecedented QE in response to covid caused a like distortion in the the length for western equities of the March 2020 low second fractal.

Fractal units are determined by nadir valuation slope lines.

The German Dax is a representative example of Western equities. The first fractal of 33 weeks is defined by a line connecting the lows of week 1 and week 33. The 33 weeks is composed of two fractal units of the basic two patterns defined above: 3/7/8/5 weeks and 3/7/6 weeks. The second fractal is defined by a line connecting the low of week 33 and the low of week 133 and follows a 14/35/34/21 week fractal pattern ::x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x. All intervening values are above this line. The length of the second fractal determines the ideal base and the length of third fractal growth as 2x’ to 2.5x’ or 80/81 to 101 weeks. The third fractal which is ongoing and has an underlying nadir slope line from week 133 to currently week 223. 4 fractal subunits are identifiable in the third fractal: 5/10/12 weeks; 5/13/10/8 weeks; 3/6/6 weeks; and 5/10/7 of 9-10 weeks which will likely be the final peak valuation or secondary peak valuation.

A DAX valuation crash over the ensuing 6-7 weeks would then be fractally appropriate. Commodity prices will likewise fall precipitously.

The inverted yield curve will rapidly uninvert as the central bank provides liquidity and rapidly lowers interest rates in the environment of falling equity and commodity prices with anticipatory expected deflation of the CPI.

1637, 1720, 1929, 2000, 2007 and now 2024 What name will be given to the May 2024 US Peak Equity and Peak Gold in USD global asset valuation collapse?

In the asset debt macroeconomic system what is the worst bubble element – an asset overproduction and overvaluation bubble or an unsustainable debt overproduction bubble at the consumer base of the asset-debt economic pyramid? While the two elements are closely linked, each of two might be individually assessed for comparison at peak system valuation of commodities and equities at prior asset peak valuations :1637, 1720, 1929, 2000, 2007, and now in 2024.

Qualitatively of these climax years 2024 is arguably the worst of the extremes of both global overproduction and overvaluation of assets and overproduction of consumer unsustainable debt. China, the second leading economy, has a collapsing consumer owned housing market with awful inactive parameters of a declining population, falling prices and 50-100% unoccupied residentials. With the early 2020-2022 historically low US mortgage interest rates and MBS’s inflating US residential valuations by 14 trillion dollars, and later in 2023 and 2024 with mortgage interest rates at 20 year highs, the global leading economy has its consumer housing prices both at historical high valuations and representing 5-6 times annual median wages for new purchases. US consumer credit card, college, and mortgage debt are likewise at historically high percentages of median wages. Vehicle repossession rates, the litmus test of the fragility of the consumer based economy, are rapidly climbing as consumers cannot pay interest and principal on car loans.

And while sovereigns can print money to monetize their national debt, individual citizen consumers cannot.

In May (not April) 2024, gold in USD completed a year 2001 51/128/102 month :: x/2.5x/2x peak valuation growth fractal with gold peaking at 2454.20 dollars on 20 May 2024.

Gold’s monthly long term peak valuation in US dollars and the concurrent Wilshire valuation May 2024 peak suggests that May 2024 is a global valuation peak for the global asset-debt macroeconomic system.

From the May 2024 gold in USD and Wilshire peak valuations, valuations of global equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies will significantly fall from the twin bubbles of global overproduction of assets and unsustainable consumer debt loads.

Sovereign debt instruments will appreciate as sovereign interest rates fall in a global recession.

Tulip, South Sea, Roaring Twenties, Internet, Housing, and ??? What name will be given to the US Peak Equity and Gold in USD May 2024 global asset valuation collapse?

The 2001 to April 2024 Gold in USD 51/127/102 Month :: x/2.5x/2x Peak Fractal Growth Valuation.



Since 2001 US asset prices have been pushed by debt expansion to what would currently appear to be a limit. The Federal Reserve inflated residential prices by over 14 trillion dollars with between March of 2020 and March 2022 with Federal Reserve MBS’s and 2.5-3.5 % inflation rates. Blue collar and US service workers have been priced out of the American dream.

Under the umbrella of US debt expansion, Chinese property overvaluation, and a US service sector based economy encumbered with debt, gold in US dollars has progressed in a x/2.5x/2x :: 51/127/102 monthly fractal fashion since 2001, peaking on the 102nd month of the 102 month third fractal in April 2024

Non-Stochastic Saturation Macroeconomics