The Economic Fractalist

Nikkei, FTSE, and DJIA Weekly Fractal Patterns: Further Confirmation of Nonlinear Saturation Macroeconomics

X/2.5X/2X/1.5X :: 7/17/14/3 of 10-11 weeks.  Economic news unfolds as the deterministic asset valuation saturation curves evolve in a precise rotational manner under the ultimate control of system net money growth through increasing net debt- or system cumulative money decay under the umbrella of twin elements of decelerating debt growth and debt default. Under the decay umbrella of money and debt contraction, available speculative money flows in a patterned rotational growth and decay behavior between the two contra veiling major asset classes: commodity and equity assets on the one hand and high quality debt instruments on the other.

This was previous post expected daily saturation sequence:

The Nikkei, FTSE, and DJIA have all reached a third  fractal peak on the 14th week of a 7/17/14 week :: X/2.5X/2X decayng Lammert three phase growth series.  The Nikkei may reach an extended higher high peak of x/2.5x/2.5x or 7/17/17 of17 weeks this next week as US bonds are expected to fall sharply  on Monday or Tuesday to complete a first growth fractal base of 13-14 days.  This would correspond to final rotational money support for equities on Monday or Tuesday 29 and 30 June 2009.  Look for a opening gap upward on Monday for World equities as the Nikkei likely reaches a 7/17/17 :: x/2.5x/2.5x or 39 week final high and the FTSE and DJIA reach a 17 week third fractal final lower high, lower than their 14 week third fractal high and importantly lower than their first fractals’ 7 week highs.

And…

Of all composite equities, the FTSE is remarkable. Saturation of equity growth will consist of 32-33 days composed of two 17 day subfractals. The second subfractal is currently 15 days in length with an expected final high on day 16 Monday 29 June or day 17 Tuesday 30 June 2009.  Retrospectively this 32-33 day period will be viewed as one of the greatest saturation areas, distribution areas, and transfer of wealth areas from the small speculator to the large investment houses - of all time.

And …

For the commodities, US dollar denominated metals represented by silver are following an 18/45/37 of 45 week decay fractal :: y/2.5y/2.5y with the last 45 week decay fractal made of a smaller and fractally similar 8/20/11 of 19-20 week (y/2.5y/2.5y) decay fractal.  While short term growth of a few days is likely on Monday and possibly Tuesday, the subsequent 7-9 weeks match the final 8 weeks of the composite equity 7/17/14/3 of 10-11 week fractal. Both commodities and equities will fall as investment enters the high quality debt market with likely 150 year low long term interest rates.

And….

By the patterned science of debt dependent nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics, after the final gapped (nonlinear) growth on 29 June and possibly 30 June for the composite equities and commodites, the greatest percentage nonlinear devaluation of equities and commodities over time (d%V/dT) since the predicted interday high on 11 October 2007 for Wilshire is predicted over the ensuing 7-9 weeks.

The Nikkei did not reach an extended 2.5x new 39 week high, there was not enough in the system to reach an extended third growth fractal new high.  The final trading minutely gaps for the Nikkei, FTTSE, and DJIA were intraday rather than  at the trading day opening and occurred on Tuesday and finally for a final lower high on Wednesday 1 July 2009. The US Treasury reached a higher low on Wednesday with a mirror investment image of the equities.

On a weekly basis. the final prediction (below) remains with the possibility of a sudden nonlinear devaluation of greater percentage than has been seen in the last two years of equity valuation activity.

After the coming 7-8 week massive equity and commodity devaluation - associated with highlighted news of state funding shortfalls, IOU script establishment, state bond, pension, and service deterioration, commercial real estate closure, and a nonlinear auto industry reverse multiplier collapse, few will fail to recognize that - in spite of the worlds’ central banks’ historically unprecedented, blatantly unfair, and unbalanced inventions - to self serve their inbred sister collaborative debt and financial institutions, the world is in a necessary debt dependent  nonlinear economic depression of historical proportions.

The Nikkei dominant monthly fractal pattern since 2003 is 26/52 months or x/2x with an expected nonlinear break between 2x and 2.5x or between 52 and 65 months.  Expected the expected from the new science of nonlinear saturation macroeconomics.

All of the calculations for US solvency and entitlement program continuation based on linear reasoning and linear macroeconomic models will require recalibration based on the world’s  real economic operating system of nonlinear saturation macroeconomics.

Nikkei, FTSE, and DJIA Weekly Validation of Lammert Asset Valuation Saturation Growth and Decay Curves

X/2.5X/2X/1.5X :: 7/17/14/3 of 10-11 weeks.  Economic news unfolds as the deterministic asset valuation saturation curves evolve in a precise rotational manner under the ultimate control of system net money growth through increasing net debt- or system cumulative money decay under the umbrella of twin elements of decelerating debt growth and debt default. Under the decay umbrella of money and debt contraction, available speculative money flows in a patterned rotational growth and decay behavior between the two contra veiling major asset classes: commodity and equity assets on the one hand and high quality debt instruments on the other.

For the two contra  veiling classes the last 12 trading day have demonstrated mirror image reciprocal performance.

The unfolding parallel play economic news is delivered to the public with a blended bias via Reuters  or Wall Street or the financial industries owned or proxy news networks. The financial industries hidden objective is to place as many speculators on the wrong side of selling and buying at the saturation areas as psychologically possible - with highlighted economic reporting by the controlling editors.  The financial industries sell at the top of the equity saturation curve luring speculators into buy positions with appropriate selective emphasis and reporting of ongoing economic news.  Picking, choosing, and publishing the appropriate news at saturation growth areas such as ‘the economy is getting worse at a slower pace’ and ‘Americans’ saving rates(including the US financial industries) have skyrocketed (from formerly negative rates’) typifies the parainformation that the financial news network uses to game the system and fleece speculators at the saturation limits. The financial industries’ business of manufacturing money via manipulation of money via money leverage instruments and ownership of news networks and selective reporting is an ongoing travesty against a real economy of citizens and a few good CEO’s struggling and involved in real work, real wages, real products, and real investment for societal useful agents.

The Nikkei, FTSE, and DJIA have all reached a third  fractal peak on the 14th week of a 7/17/14 week :: X/2.5X/2X decayng Lammert three phase growth series.  The Nikkei may reach an extended higher high peak of x/2.5x/2.5x or 7/17/17 of17 weeks this next week as US bonds are expected to fall sharply  on Monday or Tuesday to complete a first growth fractal base of 13-14 days.  This would correspond to final rotational money support for equities on Monday or Tuesday 29 and 30 June 2009.  Look for a opening gap upward on Monday for World equities as the Nikkei likely reaches a 7/17/17 :: x/2.5x/2.5x or 39 week final high and the FTSE and DJIA reach a 17 week third fractal final lower high, lower than their 14 week third fractal high and importantly lower than their first fractals’ 7 week highs.

Of all composite equities, the FTSE is remarkable. Saturation of equity growth will consist of 32-33 days composed of two 17 day subfractals. The second subfractal is currently 15 days in length with an expected final high on day 16 Monday 29 June or day 17 Tuesday 30 June 2009.  Retrospectively this 32-33 day period will be viewed as one of the greatest saturation areas, distribution areas, and transfer of wealth areas from the small speculator to the large investment houses - of all time.

For the commodities, US dollar denominated metals represented by silver are following an 18/45/37 of 45 week decay fractal :: y/2.5y/2.5y with the last 45 week decay fractal made of a smaller and fractally similar 8/20/11 of 19-20 week (y/2.5y/2.5y) decay fractal.  While short term growth of a few days is likely on Monday and possibly Tuesday, the subsequent 7-9 weeks match the final 8 weeks of the composite equity 7/17/14/3 of 10-11 week fractal. Both commodities and equities will fall as investment enters the high quality debt market with likely 150 year low long term interest rates.

By the patterned science of debt dependent nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics, after the final gapped (nonlinear) growth on 29 June and possibly 30 June for the composite equities and commodities, the greatest percentage nonlinear devaluation of equities and commodities over time (d%V/dT) since the predicted interday high on 11 October 2007 for Wilshire is predicted over the ensuing 7-9 weeks.

After the coming 7-8 week massive equity and commodity devaluation - associated with highlighted news of state funding shortfalls, IOU script establishment, state bond, pension, and service deterioration, commercial real estate closure, and a nonlinear auto industry reverse multiplier collapse, few will fail to recognize that - in spite of the worlds’ central banks’ historically unprecedented, blatantly unfair, and unbalanced decitrillion US equivalent dollars interventions - to self serve their inbred sister collaborative debt and financial institutions, the world is in a necessary debt-liquidation, asset-deflation,  and nonlinear economic depression of historical proportions.

All of the calculations for US solvency and entitlement program continuation based on linear reasoning and linear macroeconomic models will require recalibration based on the world’s  real economic operating system of nonlinear nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics.

SPX: 450 by August 2009   7/16/14/2 of 9-11 weeks

The PE ratio of the new DJIA 30 group rests  over 47, while the DJIA lies about 40 percent less than its all time nominal high.  The ZPIR treasury policy of the Fed and the money manipulation of placing recently created social security like trust fund entries on US central bank and Treasury conjoined ledgers with future taxpayers on the hook has caused a certain degree of speculative market malinvestment and has  had an effect on the periodicity and absolute values of composite saturation curves, albeit, observably very small. Some enabled favored institutions represented by  Citibank and Bank of America have done infinitely well in terms of stock price growth over the last 15-16 weeks compared to probable current bankruptcies and zero equity value -  had  the former  market rules been operative.

Nevertheless, most of the real market is operative and the real economy is undeniably operative. Jobs are vanishing. The reverse multiplier effect of the recent and ongoing loss of factories, suppliers, and retail outlet sales areas will create nonlinear future monthly job loss rates. The cost of over supplied and over valued real estate is declining and with it, the major source of wealth for the middle class, and a large portion of the tax base for states and communities.  States without sovereign ‘State Reserve’ banks, unable to recreate the Federal Reserve’s slight of hand maneuver by fabricating their own state money, are retrenching. Citizen with private enterprise jobs are unwillingly to pay increased taxes to support state programs and pensions.

Looking at the monthly charts, observe the fractal similarities between the final growth and decay for the SPX leading to its 2000 high and its 2003 low and the current pathway from the 2007 SPX high. Money in the real economy is disappearing at a much faster rate than in the similar correlative 2000 - 2003 fractal decay period.

The rich, those with easy access to free credit,  ZIRP  loans from the money fabricators, those able and knowlegdgeable, to speculate in the business of money manipulation and speculation, are becoming wealthier gorging on America’s real economic decaying carcass.

Buzzards,  scavengers,  parasites, hyenas, vultures - these are the Wall Street elite making profits on the central bankers’ money manipulations.  These are the Federal Reserve’s collaboratives and  real economic immoral imperatives that are registering massive profits in saturation growth and subsequent decay whilst the real economy and middle class suffers the short sightedness of politicians, CEO’s, and central bankers’ new world macroeconomic model.

The disparaging gains of the monied, credited wealthy and the contraveiling ongoing losses of the middle class  are simply … destabilizing.  A middle class and a real operating economy  of a superpower is needed for a stable world.

Rotational Asset Valuation Saturation Fractals: The Macroeconomy’s Dynamic Summation of the Speculative Money Supply

Rotational asset valuation curves are the footprints of the science of saturation macroeconomics. The integral areas of the temporally matching asset rotational saturation curves and the derivative points along the slope of the curves define the composite money supply system and the daily health of that system in the context of the daily, weekly,and monthly total value of all assets within the system. Accumulative debt, which the real economy - dependent on (over)supply, valuation pricing, and demand - cannot support, represents the rate limiting factor within the complex macroeconomic system.  At the maximum sustainable debt level, the total valuation of all assets within the system begins to contract or in the language of saturation macroeconomics, begins its decay phase. In some past civilizations, the rate limiting effect of accumulative debt on the local economy has been recognized, and the outstanding debt of citizens has been periodically canceled at the beginning of a new sovereign’s reign.

This debt cancellation process has been selectively imitated during the last two years. Debt of selective favored corporations and by association the elite affiliated with those organizations has been effectively canceled by the new sovereign powers, the central banks.  This preferential debt forgiveness  maintains the wealth of those with electronic debt assets and has the effect of stabilizing the system.  For those arguing against a private central bank, it would be wise to reflect on the general efficiency, business model planning, and politicization of government run programs. There are many examples of government run central banks, including the Wiemar republic and the former Soviet Union. While the concept is appealing with the presumption  that wise and balanced leadership would operate the government bank, the probable outcome in the US would likely match earlier examples.

On 13 June 2009 the Wilshire rests at a very saturated distributive level at 7/16/15 weeks and the underperforming Dow Jones at 7/17/14 weeks.

By the science of saturation macroeconomics , a devolution is due for 1.5 to 1.6x of the base 7 week first fractal or for the Dow Jones 7/17/14/10 weeks::x/2.5x/2x/1.5x.  Because this will be followed by a significant 4-6 month growth period; a caricatured shortened 1.5x 4th phase devolution is likely with a low in late July 09 or early to mid August 09.

The operating composite US equity monthly four phase Lammert fractal series from the 2002 and 2003 nodal lows are 14/35/28/10 of 21 month fractal series with a major low at month 21 which carry the SPX substantially below 500. During the next 11 months there will be a substantial growth period of 4-6 months following the expected next saturation low in late July to mid August 09.

The Wilshire’s inverse fractal from Saturation Macroeconomics’s  predicted inter day day high on11 October 2007 is 8/14 of 20-22/ 6-4 months for a total of 32 months from the 2007 high to the low correlative to the 1929 to1932 ad 2000 to 2003 32 month high to low deterministic composite equity devaluations.

These time frames also are consistent with a second fractal 2x to 2.5x nonlinear devolution window for the Nikkei’s 26 month first fractal starting in 2003.

Yet another dominant fractal series for the Wilshire is a 3/7/6 or 14 month series with the last 6 months containing the 19 July high. A 6/15/4 of 15 month decay fractal would complete a 34-35 month second fractal to the 14 month base.  This fractal series agrees with the expected above 32 month October 2007 high to low bottom.

The CRB and its proxy gold are at weekly saturated x/2.5x/2.5x areas following a 16-18/40-42/39-40 week curvilinear lower high extended saturation areas.  A major devolution is expected.

While the world is at end oil peak production levels, the relative supply to the dropping global demand of the real world economy, will lower oil’s dollar denominated cost.  The CRB and oil will have a caricatured growth period during the equities 4-6 month growth period starting in late July- mid August 09 as speculative money exits again the US debt market with long term August 09 yields returning transiently near their 150 year lows.

The US long bond is over 4.6 percent with the ratio of long bond to T bill at a record high proportionality.  Composite equity PE ratio’s are so very out of kilter with the declining real consumer based  economy.  Since proceeding on a 6/14/12 day growth fractal, supersaturation of the Wilshire has occurred with 9 days of distribution trading, likely representing an inverse fractal base.

The asset valuation rotational system at the composite debt instrument, equity, and commodity saturation areas are mechanical.  Decline will follow valuation saturation areas. Growth will follow valuation decay saturation areas.  The total money supply in real operating economy is declining and subsequent rotational valuation highs will be lower than the preceding highs.

After Delta, after New Century, after GM and Chrysler, and after Fannie, Freddie, AIG, C, and BAC - save the monopoly money supplied by the Central Bankers -  as goes McDonald’s,  so goes America.