In the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System, the self-assembly growth and decay of asset valuations occur in the simplest and most efficient manner possible, following the principal of Occam’s razor and following only two elegantly simple mathematical 4-phase and 3-phase time-based growth and decay fractal series.
The 7 October 2024 date is the end date for a 13 February 2024 47/118 day :: x/2.5x interpolated 1st and 2nd fractal series. The 27 October 2023 to 5 August 2024 55/139 day :: x/2.5x fractal series lasted one more day than the expected ideal 138 day second fractal but ended with characteristic 2nd fractal nonlinear lower low gaps between days 137 and 138 and days 138 and 139. The 47/118 day series will end an interpolated 27 October 2023 74/164 day :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with 13 February 2024 day 74 of the 1st fractal. (see previous posting and graphs)
The Nikkei, the ACWI, and US Ten Year Note Interest Rates (the latter which is the ongoing inverse of the valuation of held ten year notes) are following 5 August 2024 to 7 October 2024 3-phase y/2.5y/2.5y :: 8/20/20 day Lammert decay fractal patterns.
‘Smart’ Money is existing equities and entering US debt instruments, driving US sovereign interest rates lower. With the ten year note interest rate in steep market decline from increased supply, the Federal Reserve will have ample coverage to lower the fed funds rate to catch up with the market.
After the low on 7 October 2024 there will be observable lower high valuation growth and lower low decay patterns taking the global system to a final low between June and October 2025 and completing an observable March 2020 Nikkei 9/23/23/12-14 month x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series.
Money and debt expansion is following an incipient Volcker and Reagan 1982 interpolated 13/32/32-33/20 year US hegemonic :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series, which is part of a greater 1807 36/90/90/54 year x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x US hegemonic 4-phase fractal series ending in 2074. The next 32-33 year commencing in 2025 will be hallmarked by unprecedented historical QE measures and marked wage, money, and asset inflation.
There Are Two identifiable October 2023 Interpolated First and Second Weekly and Daily x/2-2.5x Fractal series. 5 August 2024 represented the first interpolated fractal series’s low: 8 October 2024 is the second interpolated series’s Global Equity Crash Low
It is the hypothesis of this website that the growth and decay of the asset-debt macroecomic system’s asset valuations self assemble in a deterministic and optimal mathematical time-based fractal manner under two simple self-ordered fractal ‘laws’ or modes: a 4-phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x time-based fractal series and a 3-phase time-based fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x. The arbitrary nomenclature within the 4 phase series is as follows: x is termed the first fractal; 2-2.5x is the second fractal; 2-2.5x is the third fractal, and 1.5-1.6x is the fourth fractal. In the 3-phase series x, 2-2.5x, and 1.5-2.5x are respectively termed the first, second, and third fractals.
In the 4-phase fractal series, the third fractal ends on a high or lower high valuation, whereas the first, second, and fourth fractals end on the lowest valuation of the fractal grouping. In a three phase series, all three fractals end on a low valuation. With the exception of the third fractal in a 4 phase fractal series, fractal groupings are determined by initial time unit low and the terminal time unit low. The second fractal in both the 4 phase and 3-phase fractal series has as its hallmark characteristic, a nonlinear lower low gap decline in the last 2x to 2.5x time frame of the series – identifiable on the daily, hourly, and minutely time scales and sometimes on the weekly scales in longer (monthly) fractal series.
With sequential unprecended QE started in March 2020 and thereafter unprecedented QT starting late 2021 The macroeconomic system’s equity valuations grew in a 8-9/24/24 month :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal fashion from March 2020 to August 2024 completing the first, second, and third fractals of a 4-phase series. A characteristic nonlinear lower low gap can be seen on a weekly basis during the second week of June 2022 during month 21 of the 24 month second fractal (between 2x and 2.5x of the 9 month base March 2020 first fractal).
There are two observable interpolated October 2023 Weekly and Daily First and Second Fractals identifiable by the asset-debt system’s second fractal nonlinear gapped lower lows terminal second fractal endings. 5 August 2024 represented the first interpolateds series low: 8 October 2024 is the second interpolated series Global Equity Crash Low. The elegantly simple self assembly fractal math with be shown in subsequent postings.
