It is the hypothesis of this asset-debt macroeconomonic website that the growth and decay of global composite equity valuations are self-ordered and deterministic. For the 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: x/2.5x large scale 1st and 2nd fractal series(cycles), the ACWI composite reached a peak valuation on 25 February 2026. This 1982 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series is interpolated into the larger scale US 1807 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x :: 36/90/90/54-57 year 4 phase fractal growth and decay series.
In 1929 from the DJIA’s 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation to its initial 13 Nov 1929 nadir valuation, a 4 phase fractal decay series of 7/18/18/10 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x is observed with a negative slope line underlying 99% of the peak to nadir 50 days’ valuations of this crash series.
The terminal growth portion of the 1994 33 year 2nd fractal of the 1982 13/33 year fractal series started on 27 Oct 2023 and was composed of a 3-phase 120/243/223 day :: x/2x/2x’-2.5x’ fractal growth series (where x’ equals 97 days which is the second fractal’s 243 day length divided by 2.5) reaching its maximum growth valuation peak on 25 Feb 2026.
ACWI’s 243 day 2nd fractal’s terminal portion (2x-2.5x) demonstrated characteristic 2nd fractal gapped lower low nonlinearity between days 240 and 241 and days 241 and 242. The fact that the 2nd fractal was only 3 days beyond a 2x length (240 days, twice the 120 day 1st fractal length) indicated that growth appreciation was near the end of a great fractal cycle (33 years) and that the 3rd fractal would likely not be self-assembled to a full 2x or 240 day peak. Likewise, the 4 phase fractal series decay from the 18 Feb 2025 peak to the 7 April 2025 (5/12/13/8 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x did not occur in a curvilinear asymptotic fashion but with the negative slope line containing all the intervening 4 fractal valuations, showing growth weakness going forward.
The final ACWI 7 April 2025 3-phase fractal growth series was composed of 53/107/65 day :: x/2x/x+. The 107 day 2nd fractal’s peak growth occurred on 28 Oct 2025 at a 23 June 2025 29/62 day :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal growth series and decayed in a 4-phase 3/7/6/5 day curvilinear asymptotic fashion with a daily nadir on 20 Nov 2025. The 107 day second length, only one day than 2x 106 days of the 1st fractal 53 base, also showed weakness going forward in valuation growth. 20 Nov 2025 3rd fractal growth peaked on 25 February 2026 completing a 19/47 :: x/2.5x fractal series self similar to the 107 day 2nd fractal’s 29/62 day :: x/2-2.5x peak valuation growth.
From this 25 Feb 2026 peak valuation , a 5/13/13/7-8 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase crash decay series shares fractal self similarity to the 3 Sept 1929 to 13 Nov 1929 7/18/18/10 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4 phase crash fractal decay series.
Into The Abyss…
The crash nadir valuation depends on degree of negativity of the underlying fractal slope line. The initial 25 Feb 5 day 1st fractal negative underlying slope line provides an initial devaluation with a predicted nadir of about 45%. It is true that the conflict began on 28 February and the strait of Hormuz was closed on the 2 March which is included in the 5 day 1st fractal. With the cascading and amplifying global energy shock with repercussions to both the global equity markets and US debt market, a more negative slope line is anticipated in the 2nd and 3rd 13 day decay fractals with a possible initial devaluation of 60-75%. The decay valuation of ACWI’s 13 day 2nd fractal and the dv/dt magnitude of the negativity of its underlying slope line should provide more observational guidance with regards to a potential 2026 60-75% initial crash loss.
Added 12 March 2026:
Decay Fractal and Crash Decay Fractal Series’ Underlying Negative Tangent Lines: Will the 25 Feb to 3 Mar2026 low valuation to low valuation five day 1st fractal tangent be breached?
Will the ACWI 13th day of the 13 day 2nd fractal … break through the 25 Feb 2026 to 3 Mar 2025 5 day 1st fractal extended tangent line which connects the lows for day 1 and day 5. With the concurrent oil shock caused by the Iran ‘excursion’, this tangent penetration will support a initial 25 Feb 2026 5/13/13/7-8 day crash nadir target of >60%. Oil futures are currently following a 16 Dec 2025 15/35/35 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x valuation blow-off expected end growth with oil prices at 200 dollars or more at the same time of the ACWI 5/13/13/7-8 day nadir.
The end of hegemonic expansion: The Moguls empire: 1274 and 1281 by the Kamikaze typhoons in the East China Sea off Japan; the Spanish Empire 1588 by the storms off the northern coast of Ireland and the US by president’s Venezuela hubris and lack of any consideration of geopolitical and economic impact in the Strait of Hormuz.
Added 1302 EST 12 March 2026: The five day 6/15-/9 hour :: x/2.5x/1.5x initial 25 Feb to 3 March 2026 initial Hourly Crash Fractal Decay Series and its Underlying Decay Tangent line.
Added 14 March 2026 … Why the 25 Feb 2026 ACWI Peak Valuation?
Bear Stearns 2007-2008 Subprime private credit leverage and the correlative Blackstone, Blackrock, Deustche Bank. et. al. AI and Tech 2025 and 2026 private credit leverage …
Macroeconomic asset valuation peaks and thereafter collapses – occur when private debt supporting overvalued assets undergo default. In July 2007, two Bear Stearns hedge funds tied to subprime mortgages – collapsed, wiping out roughly $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion in investor capital. Bear Stearns at that point had lost about 25-30% of its peak Jan 2007 valuation of 171.5. After lost investor confidence and a bank run in Mar 2008 JP Morgan bought its shares for 2 dollars. What happened to Bear Stearns is exactly what is happening now to Blackrock, Blackstone, KKR, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Apollo, Blue Owl, Ares Management, et. al. with their overvalued AI and Tech funds. These private credit companies and investment banks have lost 20-50% of their peak equity valuations, and are notifying their investors that funds which were considered 100% credit worthy last quarter are now worthless and are restricting withdrawals to 5-10% per month from other shaky funds.
25 February 2026 was the peak valuation for the global equity composite ACWI with an expected initial stock market peak to nadir crash fractally self similar to 1929 and related to the termites and wood eating cockroaches in the wooden-structured markets of the private credit and investment bank special funds.
Add to the naturally occurring collapse due to the private debt/investment debt default cockroaches – the Hormuz closure GLOBAL energy/fertilizer SHOCK – and it is not difficult to imagine that the initial credit-default related stock market crash will undergo a significant devaluation amplification.
If the trendline under the 5 day 1st decay fractal 25 Feb to 3 Mar 2026 is breached by the next 4 trading days (Monday thru Thursday 16-19 March 2026) which completes the 13 day 2nd fractal, the 25 Feb 2026 peak to nadir ACWI 5/13/13/7-8 day 4-phase fractal crash decay series’ initial devaluation will likely be a historical initial peak to nadir devaluation.
