The US 1807 36/90/90/54 Year Fractal Cycle 31 October 2022 Update

Current Wilshire Composite fractal modeling observations:

New 24 January 2022 first fractal base: 35 day vice 31 day base
First Fractal starting January 24 2022 ending 14 March 2022 :

composed of 2 sub fractals: 

5/12/7 days and 3/8/5 days 

Second fractal 14 Mar thru 14 July – composed of two sub fractals:

8/18/18 days and 9/19/19 days (last 19 days are up going) 86 days

Third fractal 14 July to 7/8 November composed of two sub fractals

9/21/23 days and 5/11/12/2 of 7-8 days (total 82-83 days )

Here the final third subfractal 2.5xy lower high saturation peak valuation xy/2.5xy/2.5xy falls in the last 2xy-2.5xy time frame of the third subfractal followed by nonlinear decay also (efficiently) contained in the last 2xy-2.5xy third subfractal time frame.

This morning the Hangseng Index fell below 15k. The HSI appears to be following a 23 August 2022 9/18/18/5 of 10-11 day decay fractal series :: (y/2y/2y/1.5y) which will likely take it below its 2008 nadir valuation. The Chinese equity pattern matches the end timing for the Wilshire and Bitcoin in USD decay fractal patterns. The asset-debt macroeconomic system is globally interlocking. Bad debt and overvalued assets are undergoing nonlinear liquidation.

The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system’s 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year :: Great Fractal Cycle

  1. The Efficient Market Saturation Time-based Trading to Peak and Nadir Valuation Theory of Quantitative Fractal Valuation progression:

The central banks expand and contract available system debt/money to sustain the asset-debt macroeconomic system with the bank’s defined boundary conditions of 1. unacceptable unemployment vice 2. unacceptable consumer inflation (and likely unacceptable consumer asset devaluation). The asset-debt macroeconomic system then integrates  the central bank’s manipulation of credit/money expansion/contraction via interest rates and broader measures of  QE/QT  and self-orders and self-assembles asset valuations into the most efficient time-based mathematical trading saturation growth-to-peak valuation fractals, and trading saturation decay-to-nadir valuation fractals. Within major valuation growth trends there is periodic countertrend decay  and vice-versa. These time-based saturation trading valuation fractals are seen on minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly unit scales. 

2. Two simple self-ordering asset valuation time-based fractal patterns represent the most efficient pathways to trading saturation peak valuations and nadir valuations. These recurrent fractals pathways confer upon the complex macroeconomic asset-debt system the characteristics of a patterned science. The two time-based fractal patterns are:

An ‘A’ type 4-phase fractal series : xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy/1.5xy (the fourth subfractal unit ranges from 1.4xy to 1.6xy)

First xy subfractal unit: time length defined by nadir to nadir  point time  trading saturation valuations

Second 2-2.5xy subfractal unit: time length defined  by nadir to point time nadir trading saturation valuation with a nonlinear lower low drop occurring between the 2x to 2.5x time frame

Third 2-2.5xy subfractal unit: time length  defined by concluding Second subfractal point time nadir valuation to final point time peak valuation trading saturation

Fourth 1.5xy subfractal unittime length defined by point time  third subunit peak valuation  to point time nadir trading saturation valuation

and 

‘B’ type 3-phase fractal series: xy/2-2.5xy/1.5-2.5xy.  

The first, second, and third subfractal units of the 3-phase fractal pattern are all defined by the time length defined by nadir to nadir  point time  trading saturation valuations

Observational Empirical examples of ‘A’, the 4-phase series

Yearly Fractal units: Both the Wilshire and Bitcoin in USD reached a daily average high valuation on 8 November 2021. These high valuations occurred in the 90th year of a US 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series with valuations lows in 1842-43, 1932, and an expected low in 2074. 

Monthly Fractal units: starting from the March 2009 low:5/12/10/7 months

Monthly Observational Empirical composite equity valuation examples of ‘B’, the 3-phase series: Sequentially from the ending low trading valuation of the March 2009 4-phase 5/12/10/7 month fractal series: 3/8/6 months, 8/17/16 months, and 11/26/16 months ending in March 2020.  

 Daily observational examples of the ‘B’ type series: from Jan 2020 to March 2020 a 6/15/15 day 3 phase decay fractal series can be observed.

3.  Current valuation modelling using the above two self-ordering efficient   laws of of the Asset-Debt system:

Equity Composite Asset class 

Starting March 2020, a  ‘B’ type 3-phase 8/16/10 of 11-16 month fractal  series is observable. This fractal series is consistent with the timing of central banks’ extraordinary QE response to Covid  and unemployment and later extraordinary QT response to the consumer inflation brought about by QE. The 16 month second subunit contains  the 90th year peak valuation of the 8 November 2021 90 year  third subfractal of the US 1807 36/90/90/54 year  ‘a’ type 4-phase fractal series.

The final 11-16 month decay (8/16/10 of 11-14) starts on 24 January 2022 and is  consistent with an evolving  7+/19/17 of 18 week (xy/2-2.5xy/2.5xy) ‘A’ type 3-phase fractal pattern which corresponds to a 35/86/82-83 day fractal series with a low valuation expected on 7-8 November 2022.

US Debt market: (Debt as an Asset)

The US Debt (Debt-as-Asset)Market had  its sharpest 10 and 1/2 month valuation decline dv/dt(squared)  since 1794 

Using the debt market’s inverse parameter: The US Ten Year Notes rise in interest rates (QT) (currently 4.01 %) from 1 August 2022 is  observed to be following  a 14/33/20 of 26/20 days with an expected transient peak interest rate on 7-8 November 2022 with trending declining interest rates to about December 4- 8 2022.  The current rise in the US Ten Year Note interest rates dates from March 2020 and is following a 7/16/11 of 13-16 rising interest rate monthly pattern likely part of a  Type A 4 phase 7-/16/13-14/10 month with declining interest rates in the last ten months consistent with an economic recession.

THE US ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC 1807 36/90/90/54 YEAR GREAT FRACTAL CYCLE 19 October 2022 Update 

The above DJIA chart dates from 17 June 2022 and shows an interpolated 3 fractal grouping of 18, 38, and 32 of 36-37 days, an expected low. The primary decay fractal series starting at day 60 on 9/12/2022 appears to be a 11/22/15-16 day sequence completing a 24 January 2022 31/73-74/60/45-46 day series. 30 year and 10 year US bond/ notes appear to be following a 14/33/30 day higher interest rate fractal series.

The US Asset-Debt Macroeconomic 1807 36/90/90/54 Year Great Fractal Cycle

The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system’s 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year :: Great Fractal Cycle

  1. The Efficient Market Saturation Time-based Trading to Peak and Nadir Valuation Theory of Quantitative Fractal Valuation progression:

The central banks expand and contract available system debt/money to sustain the asset-debt macroeconomic system with the bank’s defined boundary conditions of 1. unacceptable unemployment vice 2. unacceptable consumer inflation (and likely unacceptable consumer asset devaluation). The asset-debt macroeconomic system then integrates  the central bank’s manipulation of credit/money expansion/contraction via interest rates and broader measures of  QE/QT  and self-orders and self-assembles asset valuations into the most efficient time-based mathematical trading saturation growth-to-peak valuation fractals, and trading saturation decay-to-nadir valuation fractals. Within major valuation growth trends there is periodic countertrend decay  and vice-versa. These time-based saturation trading valuation fractals are seen on minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly unit scales. 

2. Two simple self-ordering asset valuation time-based fractal patterns represent the most efficient pathways to trading saturation peak valuations and nadir valuations. These recurrent fractals pathways confer upon the complex macroeconomic asset-debt system the characteristics of a patterned science. The two time-based fractal patterns are:

An ‘A’ type 4-phase fractal series : xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy/1.5xy (the fourth subfractal unit ranges from 1.4xy to 1.6xy)

First xy subfractal unit: time length defined by nadir to nadir  point time  trading saturation valuations

Second 2-2.5xy subfractal unit: time length defined  by nadir to point time nadir trading saturation valuation with a nonlinear lower low drop occurring between the 2x to 2.5x time frame

Third 2-2.5xy subfractal unit: time length  defined by concluding Second subfractal point time nadir valuation to final point time peak valuation trading saturation

Fourth 1.5xy subfractal unittime length defined by point time  third subunit peak valuation  to point time nadir trading saturation valuation

and 

a ‘B’ type 3-phase fractal series: xy/2-2.5xy/1.5-2.5xy.  

The first, second, and third subfractal units of the 3-phase fractal pattern are all defined by the time length defined by nadir to nadir  point time  trading saturation valuations

Observational Empirical examples of ‘A’, the 4-phase series

Yearly Fractal units: Both the Wilshire and Bitcoin in USD reached a daily average high valuation on 8 November 2021. These high valuations occurred in the 90th year of a US 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series with valuations lows in 1842-43, 1932, and an expected low in 2074. 

Monthly Fractal units: starting from the March 2009 low:5/12/10/7 months

Monthly Observational Empirical composite equity valuation examples of ‘B’, the 3-phase series: Sequentially from the ending low trading valuation of the March 2009 4-phase 5/12/10/7 month fractal series: 3/8/6 months, 8/17/16 months, and 11/26/16 months ending in March 2020.  

 Daily observational examples of the ‘B’ type series: from Jan 2020 to March 2020 a 6/15/15 day 3 phase decay fractal series can be observed.

3. Current valuation modelling using the above two self-ordering efficient   laws of of the Asset-Debt system:

Equity Composite Asset class

Starting March 2020, a  ‘B’ type 3-phase 8/16/10 of 11-16 month fractal  series is observable. This fractal series is consistent with the timing of central banks’ extraordinary QE response to Covid  and unemployment and later extraordinary QT response to the consumer inflation brought about by QE. The 16 month second subunit contains  the 90th year peak valuation of the 8 November 2021 90 year  third subfractal of the US 1807 36/90/90/54 year  ‘a’ type 4-phase fractal series.

The final 11-16 month decay (8/16/11os 13-16) starts on 24 January 2022 and is  consistent with an evolving  7/15/14/10-11 week (xy/2-2.5xy/2xy/1.5xy) ‘A’ type 4-phase fractal. pattern which corresponds to a 31/73/60-61/47 day fractal series.  The 47 day 4th subfractal series appears to be composed of a 8-9/16 of 20/20 day series with a low valuation expected on Thursday 20 October 2020 followed by a 16 day trending rise to 12 November followed by 4 day nonlinear decline.

US Debt market: (Debt as an Asset)

The US Debt (Debt-as-Asset)Market had  its sharpest 10 and 1/2 month valuation decline dv/dt(squared)  since 1794 

Using the debt market’s inverse parameter: The US Ten Year Notes rise in interest rates (QT) (currently 4.01 %) from 1 August 2022 is  observed to be following  a 11/27/18 of 22/16 days with an expected transient peak interest rate on Thursday 20 October with trending declining interest rates through 12 November 2022.  The current rise in the US Ten Year Note interest rates dates from March 2020 and is following a 7-/16/11 of 13-16 rising interest rate monthly pattern likely part of a  Type A 4 phase 7-/16/13-14/10 month with declining interest rates in the last ten months secondary to a recession.