November 16, 2022. 14 trading days to the 6 December 2022 nadir.
What happens when 20-30 billion dollars of valuation disappear from an asset valuation such as FTX over a few days or 2.2 trillion dollars disappear over a year from the total crypto valuation? All individual asset entity (including debt) valuations are supported by the composite sum of the macroeconomic system’s total valuation. When the system has had a time period of excessive leverage promoted by low or negative sovereign interest rates, outright digital and/or paper money creation, or facilitated lending programs, the composite supporting debt and mount grows larger and larger, supporting higher individual asset. If credit tightening then occurs, asset valuations will decrease. Because there is debt which cannot be repaid, the system is not a zero sum proposition. Nonlinear devaluations can be expected. The QE/debt expansion over the last 12 of the last 13 years for the US has been extraordinary and the last 11 month QT simply historical. The probability for large debt corporate and private debt default in China and Europe – after 30 years of sovereign central bank nearly-unlimited underwriting of debt creation – is 100 per cent.
The 1807 36/90/90/54 year 4-phase Great US Fractal cycle.
The 90 year 1932 to 2021 US Third Fractal peak valuation occurred on 8 November 2021.
Equities and Cryptocurrencies: 13 more trading days to the 6 December 2022 Nadir crash devaluation.
The current monthly western and Japan equity fractal grouping from March 2020 is 8/16/11 of 12 months: y/2y/1.5y. The US 1932 to 2021 90 year Third Fractal peak valuation occurred in the 16 month second fractal of this 8/16/12 month series. The 12 month third fractal of the 8/16/12 month series starts on 24 January 2022 and ends on 6 December 2022 and is composed of a (use the Wilshire) 31/72/73/47 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y 4-phase fractal decay series. The 47 day final decay series is composed of a 30 September 2022 9.5/ 20.5/19 day :: y/2-2.5y/2y decay fractal ending 6 December 2022. The current predictions for the final 19 day third fractal of the 9.5/20.5/19 day series uses a 5 day base contained in the last 5 days of the 20.5 day second fractal. The final series is (5)/12-13/8-7 days ending with a nadir on 6 December 2022. In this model the 12-13 day second fractal nadir would occur on 25 November or 28 November respectively. Cryptocurrencies are following this same fractal pattern.
The CRB: 13 more trading days to the 6 December 2022 Nadir crash devaluation.
The CRB is following an April 2020 27/58/51 of 54 week growth and decay pattern. (With the incipient Covid pandemic, oil valuation became temporarily negative causing the CRB nadir valuation to occur in April 2020 vice March 2020). The 54 week third fractal of the 27/58/54 week fractal series is composed of two subfractal series 4/8/8 weeks and 7/18/11 of 14 weeks for a total of 54 weeks. The final 14 weeks starting 8 September 2022 is composed of a 12/26/14 of 27 day ::y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal ending 6 December 2022.
US Debt Inverse growth of the US Ten Year Note
Peak interest rates for US Notes and Bonds likely occurred in mid October 2022 following a March 2020 7/16/11 month :: interest rate fractal growth series of x/2-2.5x/1.5x. The 11 month third growth fractal of the 7/16/11 month series started on 17 December 2021 and is composed of a 11/22/13-15 weeks to peak growth series. The 13-15 week third fractal is past peak interest rate growth and at week 17. The 17 week third fractal os the 11/22/17 week series is composed of a 1 August 2022 14/33/26/6 of 20 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5 x 4-phase fractal series with an expected low interest rate valuation on 7 December 2022.
Over the next 13-14 trading days money will flow from the selling of equity and commodity will nonlinear lower valuations into the US debt market, driving interest rates on US debt instruments lower.
The asset debt system is a self-assembly, self ordering process the greatest mathematical efficiency and following the macroeconomic system’s simple growth and decay 4-phase and 3-phase laws: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy/1.5xy and xy/2-2.5xy/1.5-2.5xy, respectively. These self ordering patterns represent the science of the asset debt macroeconomic system.
One thought on “Quantitative Fractal Countdown to the 6 December 2022 Global Equity Nadir: the Great Equity and Commodity Valuation Collapse.”
The Great incipient 54 year Forth Fractal Crash.
10 trading days remain until the 6 December 2022 nonlinear nadir valuation. A 3/3 of 7/7 day decay fractal series :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y is possible from the SPX’s recent lower high valuation. This would be consistent with an interpolated 5/13/7 day series.
This is a historical deleveraging deterministic process of the self-ordering asset debt system as it enters the 54 year 4th fractal of a US 1807 36/90/90/54 year cycle with peak valuations on 8 November 2022 in the 90th year of a 36/90/90 year growth cycle.
The valuations that 12 years of QE has created will abruptly and nonlinearly decay after only 11 months of QT. This QE/QT process will be the dominant central bank and sovereign treasury policy pattern during the next 54 years. ….