The idea construct for the theory of saturation macroeconomics is occam’s razor simplistic, money under the given central bank expanding and contracting money supply conditions both via fractional reserve banking and since 2009 QE/QT expansion/constraints … flows to the maximum extent into the most advantaged and leveraged asset classes, that is, the equity and property markets. The progression to the maximal extent and peak valuation and subsequent nonlinear terminal nadir values is fractally time based and in accordance with two eloquently simple 3 and 4 phase time based sequences :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and x/2-2.5x/1.5x-2.5x.
For the US hegemony the overall long term sequence is a 4 phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal pattern starting in 1807 and consisting of 36/90/90/54 years with a first fractal equity valuation low in 1842/43, a second fractal low in 1932, a third fractal 90 year high in November 2021, with an expected fourth fractal low in 2074.
From the property bubble low in March 2009, US equities have followed a 5/13/10/7 month pattern (x/2.5x/2x/1.5x); followed by a 3/7/6 month pattern (x/2-2.5x/2x); followed by a 8/17/17 month pattern (x/2x/2x), followed by a 10/26/16 month pattern( x/2.5x/1.5x) and finally a 8/18/11 of 12 month pattern (x/2.5x/1.5x), the the latest fractal sequence starting with both unprecedented money expansion and thereafter money contraction in response to, respectively, the Covid pandemic and resulting consumer commodity and price inflation secondary to extraordinary money expansion.
The daily market valuations represent the real status of saturation investment under the changing central bank lending parameters. Does the real market valuation progression data fit an occam razor’s theoretical mathematical fractal constructs?
From the 22 November 2021 secondary Wilshire peak and Nasdaq key reversal valuation day peak 43 days (7/14/14/11)/ 101 days/102 days/ 52 of 62-63 days (x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x).
Expect nonlinear lower low valuation declines over the next ten trading days