On Friday 21 February 2025, The SPX and ACWI completed a maximum growth x/2.5x/2.5x :: 55/139/138 day 3 of 4 phase fractal series initiated on 27 Oct 2023. The SPX peak valuation occurred on day 136 of the 138 day 3rd Fractal.

Characteristic terminal 2nd Fractal lower low nonlinear gaps occurred between the prior two trading days before the 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd Fractal nadir. (See 2005 opening web page about 2nd Fractals).

Debt and credit in macroeconomic systems expand to acquire and create assets which reach eventually peak valuations or overproduction relative to the accumulated debt burden.

Debt is a countervailing asset in this system. Overreach naturally occurs when assets become over-produced and/or over-valued, and debt supporting that overproduction/over-valuation cannot be repaid. Restructuring of debt or default on debt occurs and asset prices undergo devaluation adjustment in well known cyclical patterns..

Empirical observation strongly suggests the timing of peak asset growth and nadir decline of easily tradable assets (both non-debt and debt assets) occurs and self-organizes in two very regular time-based fractal series patterns:

a four phase phase fractal series pattern of x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.4-1.6x

and a three phase fractal series pattern of
x/2-2.5x/1.5x-2.5x.

The individual elements in the four phase series are arbitrarily and sequentially termed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Fractals andin the three phase seriesthe 1st. 2nd, and 3rd Fractals .

With the exception of the 3rd Fractal in the four phase series, Individual fractals (groupings)are defined by beginning and ending nadir to nadir valuations with all individual valuations within the fractal (grouping) above these nadir valuations. The 3rd fractal in a four phase series, represents a peak valuation.

Since the creation of the 2005 web page, the primary fractal pattern of the current US hegemonic macro economy has been traced further back than the original webpage’s 1858 origin to available trading data dating from about 1790, a couple of years before the 1792 Wallstreet Buttonwood agreement.

An incipient 18 year fractal series occurred from 1790 to 1807 ending in nadir commodity prices in the depression of 1807. This 18 year incipient fractal served as the basis for an 1807 four phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series of 36/90/90/54 years ending in about 2074. The nadir valuations of commodity and stock progenitors for the 36 year 1st Fractal and the 90 year 2nd Fractal occurred in 1842/43 and 1932 respectively. 8 November 2021 represented the 90 year 3rd Fractal Peak.

The 90 year 3rd Fractal beginning in 1932 and 54 year 4th Fractal starting in 2021 are composed of two interpolated fractal series: a 1932 10/21-22/21-22 year three phase series ending in 1982 and a 4 phase 1982 13/32-33/32-33/20 year series ending in 2074.

Credit is created via private fractional reserve banking and via central bank money creation. The former is collateralized by assets and the latter by securitized assets and by future taxation.

US politicians adopted anti-US industry based-policies and treaties starting in the 1990’s favoring corporation profits via the use the very cheap foreign available labor. Private US credit expansion to corporations allowed investment abroad and foreign countries bought US national debt to fund the US military, transoceanic transportation protection, and deficit spending for US social programs to bolster appearances in a setting of a declining standard of living requiring two breadwinners in aa typical US household.

The predominant interpolated four phase fractal series for US composite equities since 1982 is a 13/32-33/32-33/20 year series completing the 1807 36/90/90/54 year four phase fractal series.

With the leveraged housing bubble bust In 2009 and even more so with the Covid unemployment crash in 2020, the US and world central banks have unprecedentedly placed trillions of credit in circulation. This excessive credit and money expansion have distorted composite asset fractal nadir valuations.

Since March 2009 system self organizing Fractal series for the US SPX composite have been:

5/12/10/7 months :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x
3/7/7 months :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 8/17/17 months :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 10/26/16 months :: x/2.5x/1.6x 8+/24/14 month :: x/2.5x/1.6x and 4-/8/7 months or 55/139/138 days with a peak on day 19 Feb 2025, the 137th day of the 3rd fractal

The March 2020 8+/24/14 month fractal series did not have a 27 October 2023 14 month nadir that contained all valuations from March 2020 to 27 October 2023. This was a blow-off sequence extending to Feb 2025 caused by a distortion of the central bank excessive money creation in 2020 and 2021.

A 32 year 2nd Fractal nonlinear ending for its interpolated 1982 13 year 1st Fractal base is expected with a targeted nadir in Aug-Sept 2025.

Debt and credit is created by private banks through fractional reserve banking and by money printing by

It is hypothesis of this website that easily tradable assets, both nondebt and debt entities, grow and decay in an optimal and deterministic time-based self-assembly fractal manner; either in a three phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/1.5 to 2.5x or in a four phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x.

Unraveling of the US hegemony started in the 1990’s by career US politicians, lobbied and supported by US corporations who favored greater profits with foreign-based manufacturing and inexpensive labor. The US hegemony is following a 4 phase 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series for equities and commodities after having an incipient 18 year fractal base from 1790 to 1807.

Since 1982 US equities are following an interpolated 13/32 of 32-33/32-33/20 year four phase fractal series ending about 2054 . In this four phase series expected is a great 32-33 year second fractal crash occurring in 2025-2026.

Since 2000 2-3 % average GDP annual growth has been sustained by an average of 5 % GDP-deficit spending with the US central bank, US citizens and institutions, and the world subsidizing US debt. Until 2020, low-labor cost imported manufactured goods exchanged for US farm goods, US energy, and US debt maintained a low inflationary environment. With the increasing cost of foreign labor – and more recently the US adopting an isolationist posture, the abrupt ice-cold alienation of former allies, and the threatened and real imposition of new tariffs – both support of US debt growth from other than the US sources and the expectation of a low inflationary environment will qua;itatively wither.

A March 2020 3-phase 8+/24/14 month :: x/2.5x/1.6x fractal growth series ended on 27 October 2023.

On February 14 2025 a new high for ACWI, the 115 trillion dollar ETF proxy, was observed with a tiny blow-off gap opening at the beginning of the trading day with an end trading valuation near the low of the day (see the ten day 15-minute unit ACWI chart at the bottom of the page.) : 14 February completed nested fractal growth series: an 8 December 2024 7/14/18/11 day :: x/2x/2.5x/1.5x inverse growth fractal series: a 5/11/10 day a/2-2.5x/2x growth fractal series: a 5 Aug 2024 24/53/59 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series: and a 27 Oct 2023 55/139/134 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series. See below.

(In the previous post, the 5 Aug 2024 3-phase fractal series had been identified errantly as a 24/52/54 or 128 day series vice the correct 24/53/59 day or 134 day series and the 27 October 2023 fractal series as 55/139/128 day series vice the correct 55/139/134 day series. )

TNX, the US Ten Year Note interest rate came within 0.2 % of its 23 week third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline. It is possible for TNX to touch the third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline on Tuesday or Wed, 18 or 19 February 2025 with a final 2/5/4-5 day growth fractal of ACWI completing a 5/11/11-12 day fractal series rather than the current 5/11/10 day series.

Within the global asset debt macroeconomic system, it appear obvious that deterministic equity self assembly growth to a maximum valuation within the frame work of the simple laws of Lammert fractal progression is both observable and operative.

Torsades de Points, the twisting of the points, is an unraveling of a stable cardiac rhythm. The unraveling of global equity valuations will occur in concert with market forces on US debt and in particular US Ten Year Notes – qualitatively caused by 36.5 trillion in US Federal debt, expected tariff induced inflation, anticipated tax cuts promoting continued high % GDP deficits, and predictable partisan political turmoil obstructing a necessary increase in the US debt ceiling, et.al. – and quantitatively, by a natural fractal progression of US Ten Year Note interest rate growth.

Near Friday February 14 2025 the US ten year note will commence a terminal rate rise of 10 to 32 weeks following a 22/55/23 of 33 -55 week rate increase :: x/2.5x/1.6x-2.5x fractal series,

On February 14 2025, twisting away from debt interest rate growth, the 115 trillion dollar global index ACWI will complete a 27 October 2023 55/139/128 day :: x/2.5x/near 2.5x maximum fractal growth series …

and an inverse 8 December 2024 7/14/18/11 day :: x/2x/2.5x/1.5x inverse fractal series with a final peak or secondary lower peak to its 9 December 2024 current peak on 14 February 2025.

Concurrent with weakening employment and US manufacturing index statistics, US 30 year mortgage rates may again approach 8%.