There is an undeniable observable elegance to the simple self assembly growth and decay of asset valuations within the global asset-debt macroeconomic system.

The two simple self ordering time-based fractal laws governing all growth and decay of the system’s asset valuations are: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x.

On the longest observable time scale in years, the US hegemony is following an 1807: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x yearly fractal series of 36/90/90/54 years ending in 2074 with lows in 1843-43 and 1932 and a (global) peak asset valuation in November 2021. This global peak is better understood if one considers inclusion of Chinese property valuation.

An interpolated US fractal series started in 1982 (of 13/32 years ending in 2025) commenced with the peak double-digit Volcker fed funds rates which have been lowered in a cascadingly ratcheted manner with near zero rates after the 2009 global property bubble collapse and recently fed fund increases since 2021 to combat inflation caused in the main, by excessive global Covid QE programs. The length of US 3 month Treasury minus 10 year inversion QT program now exceeds the length (and depth) of the inversion leading to 1929.

World Equity growth since the March 2020 covid lows have followed an elegant 8-9/24/24 month :: x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal ending July-August 2024. The monthly sub fractals (following the self-ordering laws defined above) composing the 8-9/24/24 month fractal are shown in the graph below.

The last 10-11 months of the 24 month third fractal of 5/10/10-11 months are shown below in a series of weekly fractals :: 13/30-33 weeks.

A 33 week second fractal can be observed to be a 5/10/13/8 week fractal ending 30 August 2024 with week 26 (2x) containing July 16 2024.

The final growth from 28 June 2024 to the peak of 16 July follows a 3/7/4 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x growth fractal. A reflexic 4 phase decay/decay/growth/crash decay fractal series of 6/13/12/9 days completes week 8 of the 33 week 5/10/13/8 week fractal series ending 30 August 2024. The July -August 2024 decay will be the beginning of a valuation decay process lasting 12 -15 months with substantial counter valuation growth fractals.

Kindly review the 19 August 2024 post. With the exception of third fractal growth in a 4-phase series, Fractal groupings are generally defined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit of the grouping with all values within the intervening time unit being above the nadir points.

The crash devaluation of the ACWI world index reached a nominal peak on 16 July 2016. This was day 125 of an October 2023 59/125 day first and second fractal series and week 26 of an analogous 13/26 week first and second series. for the second fractal, after a 17 Jan 2024 20/47/49 day series, the peak valuation occurred in a 28 June 3-/7/4 day :: x/2.5x/1.5x growth fashion.

Integratively and with incipient decay beginning near end growth the 7 day second fractal of the 3-/7/4 day final growth series became the base first fractal of a 3 July 7/18/16 day 3-phase crash decay sequence ending 26 August. Note that the 7/18/16 day decay series meets the criteria of fractal groupings.

In the x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6 four phase time based deterministic self ordering fractal model of Lammert asset-debt saturation macroeconomics, the 139 day 2nd fractal low on 5 August 2024 would nicely fit the standard model described in the 2005 web page with later modification and identification/description the US 1807 36/90/90/54 year and further identification of the 3 phase fractal growth and decay x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x. All of macroeconomic’s systems self assembly valuation growth and decay deterministic time ordering can be described in the context of the 4 phase and the 3 phase self assembly fractal series.

5 August 2024 is day 139 of a first and second daily fractal series of 59/139 days :: x/2x-2.5x and from the actual daily nadir valuation on 27 October 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 : 55/139 days. :: within a day of x/2.5x.

An alternative model can be observed in the weekly fractal series starting 23 October 2023 with a 13/32 of 32 week series ending this week. Week 26 is the peak of a 13/26 of 32 week series containing 16 July 2024, the unadjusted inflation peak valuation for the World index ACWI. The 26 week peak valuation is composed of a 5/10/13 week :: x/2x/2.5x growth series staring on 17 January 2024. The completion of this 4-phase fractal series would be 5/10/13/7 weeks.

The daily fractal series correlate to the 5/10/13/7 week 4 phase fractal series and the subfractal series that make up the first 59 day first fractal and the possible 153 day second fractal are shown below.

If 5 August 2024 was the nadir for the second fractal and the beginning of third fractal valuation growth and if there is no further second fractal crash devaluation in the equity, commodity and crypto markets ending about 23 August 2024, it will be difficult for the federal reserve to lower the fed funds rate in September 2024.