This blog has been dedicated to the proposition that the Asset Debt Macroeconomic system represents a quantitative science.
On 19 February 2020, the US Hegemonic Economy, the current proxy for the Global Macroeconomic System , was at its apogee of its 1790 18/36/90/89 year possible asset valuation peak.
Terminal debt creation was facilitated by the US Federal Reserve starting in earnest in September 2019. The Reserve had to add liquidity to the debt market at that time for the system to function. The private sector was unable to provide the liquidity during a period of peak economic growth. The SPX was elevated via that necessary Federal debt creation to its 19 February 2020 Macroeconomic valuation equity peak. The US Federal Reserve had no alternate in September 2019. Its action was as deterministic for the survival of the system as was its recent federal funds rate cut to zero. There was simply no alternative.
The system’s final mathematical fractal sequence from the composite equity low in December 2018 follows a x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x interpolated growth and decay pattern: 11/28/22/15-16 weeks following the exact fractal pattern described in the 2005 Website Main page of this blog.
“ The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay
This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .
The fact that the December 2018 hegemonic macroeconomic terminal growth and decay pattern follows that simple mathematical fractal pattern provides direct further evidence that the Asset-Debt macroeconomic system is indeed a deterministic self organizing system. The verified elegantly simple growth and decay fractal sequences and math elevates the asset debt macroeconomic system to a science equivalent to the self organizing deterministic natural sciences of physics and chemistry and biology. The fact that asset debt macroeconomics follows the self organization of those natural sciences should not be surprising to the scientist or mathematician who is awed by mathematical simplicity and elegance of the observable universe. The entry on the scene of a viral pandemic at the time of the expected 1807 36/90/90 year collapse will be a considerable matter for future historical review.