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The Bigger Picture: What Matters? The Deterministic Mathematical Fractal Science of Global Asset Debt Macroeconomics

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This blog has been dedicated to the proposition  that  the Asset Debt  Macroeconomic system represents  a quantitative science.
 On 19 February 2020, the US Hegemonic Economy, the current proxy for the Global Macroeconomic System , was at its apogee of its 1790  18/36/90/89 year possible asset valuation peak.
Terminal  debt  creation was  facilitated by the US Federal Reserve starting in earnest in September 2019. The Reserve had to add  liquidity to the debt market at that time for the system to function.  The private sector was unable to provide the liquidity during a period of  peak economic growth. The SPX was elevated via that necessary Federal  debt creation  to its 19 February 2020 Macroeconomic valuation equity  peak. The US Federal Reserve had no alternate in September 2019. Its action was as deterministic for the survival of the system as was its recent federal funds rate cut to zero. There was  simply no alternative.
 The system’s final mathematical fractal sequence from the composite equity  low in December 2018 follows a x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x interpolated growth and decay pattern: 11/28/22/15-16 weeks following the exact  fractal pattern described in the 2005 Website Main page of this blog.
“ The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay
curves.  “

 G. Lammert

This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .

The fact that the December 2018 hegemonic macroeconomic terminal growth and decay pattern follows that simple mathematical fractal pattern  provides direct further evidence that the Asset-Debt macroeconomic system is indeed a deterministic self organizing system.   The verified elegantly simple growth and decay fractal  sequences and math elevates the asset debt macroeconomic system  to a science equivalent to the self organizing deterministic natural sciences of  physics and chemistry and biology. The fact that asset debt  macroeconomics follows the self organization of those natural sciences should not be surprising to the scientist or mathematician who is awed by mathematical simplicity and elegance of the observable universe.  The entry on the scene  of a viral pandemic at the time of the expected 1807 36/90/90 year collapse will be  a considerable matter for future historical  review.

16 March 2020: The US 1932 90 Year Third Fractal Incipient Daily Decay Fractal Series :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y Great Nonlinear Crash

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Quantitative Deterministic Asset Debt Saturation Macroeconomics:

Ultimately, it’s very simple fractal math.

16 March 2020

Day 12 of a Jan 31 2020  6/15/12 of 12-15 day spx decay  fractal series  of the 1929 89 Year US Third Fractal

For the 1929 US Second 90 year Great Fractal, a decay fractal of 10-11/26/26 days  lowered US composite equities from their highs to about a  46-47 % nadir and 30 months later in June 1932 to a 90 percent nadir from those 29 highs   as on-the-books liquidating bad debt,  reduced asset over ownership and collapsing asset overvaluation reestablished a trough equilibrium finally dominated with incipient new asset valuation growth.
The 1932 US Great 90 year  Third Fractal  with an incipient 31 January 2020  growth terminal 6/15/12-15 day decay fractal series will likely represent at least a similar 1929 50 percent initial drop, likely more…  If simple fractal proportionality represents the operating factor in Asset Debt Macroeconomics, the decline in months for the US  90 year  Third Fractal nadir will be about half that of 1929.
1790-1807  18 year initiating US Fractal
1807-1842-3  36 year First US Fractal
1843-1932 90 year US Second Fractal
1932-2020  89 of 90 year US Third Hegemonic  Fractal
2021-2074  US 4th Fractal Decline … ??? Rise of the Chinese-Indian Hegemony

 

 

THE FINAL THIRD OF A THIRD OF A THIRD OF A … FRACTAL …THE 1807 Y/2.5Y/2.5Y :: 36/90/90 YEAR US HEGEMONIC FRACTAL SERIES : Y/2.5Y/2.5Y ::12/30/22 OF 30 WEEKS

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THE FINAL THIRD OF A THIRD OF A THIRD OF A … FRACTAL …THE 1807 Y/2.5Y/2.5Y :: 36/90/90 YEAR US HEGEMONIC FRACTAL SERIES : Y/2.5Y/2.5Y ::12/30/22 OF 30 WEEKS

The great US third fractal  90 year Crash starting in 1932 is at hand.

Starting in December 2018 the last multi weekly  quantitative  third fractal series began in the deterministic global asset debt system.

The final fractal seriesis y/2.5y/2.5y  decay series with peak of the third weekly fractal at about 1.6y of third 2.5y weeks at 20-21 weeks. The each fractal weekly series is self assembled in Lammert classic quantitative  fractals.

The December 2018 quantiative decay series is 12/30/21 of 30 weeks ::  y/2.5y/2.5y.

Ist 12 week fractal : 2/5/5/3 weeks

2nd 30 week fractal : 3/7/5 and 3/8/6/4 weeks

3rd 30 week fractal:  3/8/6/4 and 3/3 of 6/6 weeks”:

Final daily Fractal series starting 31 January 2020 : 10/10 of 22-25/22-25 days

The quantitative great crash will occur over the next 8 weeks.

While many obfuscating factors are transpiring, it is the composite of the total global  end bad debt load, asset overvaluation, consumer asset ownership saturation, and the inability for  money printing to  improve on or sufficiently remedy  any of these parameters at the base consumer working population of the  pyramid– that is/are the underying causative qualitative factors for the  global macroeconomic system which operates, grows and nonlinearly decays in a self assembly,   deterministic, and  quantitative fractal manner.