The length of time of the fractal pathway from the asset-debt macroeconomy’s peak asset valuation to its nadir valuation in 1929 vice 2024 may well be 0.36 , which is the ratio of the length of the 13 year 1982 to 1994 interpolated first fractal to the length of the 36 year 1807 to 1842-43 first fractal of the US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year great fractal series ending 2074.
November 7 2024 marked the global equity peak for the 32 year second fractal of 1982’s 13 year interpolated first fractal just as 3 September 1929 represented the 90 year second fractal peak for the 1807 36 year first fractal.
The higher high gap for ACWI, the 100 + trillion dollar global ETF equity index on 7 November, 2024 has been observed only once before on 27 Sept 2024 and not even on the 90 year third fractal (of the 36/90/90/54 year series) inflation adjusted high average valuation on 8 November 2021.
By fractal count the time duration between the 3 Sept 1929 high and the 8 July 1932 low was 35 months. 35 months times 0.36 is 12.6 months which would put the crash asset low (by fractal time count) to be in late October- November 2025.
US conservative fiscal policy by the new conservative majority in the executive and legislative branches will likely oppose any further deficit spending – very much akin to the Hoover administration in 1929 to 1931 with deficit to GDP spending of -0.7, -0.8 and 0.6%, even as GDP fell by 10 % a year.
QE monetary policy by the Fed and central banks will benefit primarily financial institutions with their first use of money making even greater wealth disparities between those with assets and without assets.
Of all countries China is perhaps in the worst position because of their real estate gross overproduction, overvaluation, and gross over-ownership by their citizens as a primary wealth holding vehicle.
For the Shanghai Property index the current weekly fractal projection from the Jan 2024 low is 14/30 of 34 weeks. The daily series from the 11 September 2024 low is 9/21/8 of 24 days ending with a crash low on 1 December 2024. The normal fractal progression of a 14/34/28-34/21 week progression would place the nadir low in late October-November 2025, the same as the 0.36 ratio as above. The 28-34/21 week 3rd and 4th fractals will not follow the standard grow and decay model but will follow a proportionality decay fractal model observable in the 1929 peak to nadir progression.
The ACWI correct fractal 5 Aug 2024 to 1 December 2024 24(+)/62 day :: x/2.5x progression is shown below and matches the Shanghai property index 1 December 2024 nadir date and the 5 week base decay fractal equivalent to 1929’s 13 week decay base.
