Market valuations for all of macroeconomic system’s assets at all times are perfectly valued on a yearly monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly basis. Debt-as-an-asset class and non-debt asset class valuations are counter balancing and dependent on the system’s prevailing central banks’ interest rate and debt/money creation conditions. The operative central banking conditions are in turn reactive to the expected outcomes of that expansive debt/money creation activity. Since 1982 in the US interest rates have been dialed down in a cascading fashion by the federal reserve. In the 1990’s American corporations increasingly outsourced American manufacturing in favor of lower-cost labor and netter paper profits with corporate buy-backs of stocks, increasing corporate leaders’ private wealth. The American economy has been shifted to focus on the service sector which includes oceanic and transcontinental transportation of manufactured goods. The federal reserve’s operative activity in concert with private financial engineering/fraud have created boom- bust cycles associated with the Dotcom bubble in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2007-8. Deterministic peak and nadir valuations and self-assembled fractal groupings are, as a subset of the perfectly ordered d(valuation)/d(time) fractal system , likewise perfectly timed and grouped. Central bank operative conditions, especially since 2009 have alternatively caused consumer inflation directly related to both finite world energy, metal, and food commodity reserves and by the commodity/equity speculation engendered by the central bank’s relatively low interest rates/money printing programs .
Since 1807 the yearly fractal groupings of 36/90/90 years::x/2.5x/2.5x for the US hegemony are observable with a peak of the composite Wilshire’s valuation in November 2021 and nadirs for the asset-debt macroeconomic system in commodity and equity prices in 1842-43 and 1932.
The monthly fractal groupings since March 2009 are empirically observable: 5/12/10/7, 3/7/6, 8/17/17, 11/26/16, and currently 8/16/8 of 10.
The final 52 years of the 1807 36/90/90/54 year US hegemonic fractal cycle will be primarily dependent on the finite global commodities available to provide energy and feed the world’s population. Cyclical sharp inflation will be controlled by periodic interest rate increases/money tightening which will temporally lower commodity prices resulting in lower interest rates. From a 16.5 percent rime interest rate in 1982, the federal reserve, over the next 50 years, will operate in a negative to 1 – 2.5-3 percent range. Commodity inflation in this central bank interest rate range will be destabilizing. The commodity inflation will be exacerbated by competing geopolitical strife, continued global warming, and food production losses caused by the first two elements. A nonlinear event such as nuclear war or a precipitous annual global crop failure is an unwelcome possibility.
The operative monthly fractal series for US equities from the 2020 March low is 8/16/10 months with an expected blow-off in commodity prices (oil, metals, grains) (starting 14 August 2022) over the next 6-7 trading days and a commodity/equity low on 7-8 October 2022. The 10 month third fractal of the 8/16/10 month fractal series started on 24 January 2022 and is composed of a 2/5/5 month series.
