Why the Great Nonlinear 2022 Crash?
While not 1929 and not 2008, this crash does represent great nonlinearity within the US 1807: 36/90/90/54 year asset-debt macroeconomic cycle. This historical super bubble asset valuation was inflated since 2020 via unprecedented world central bank covid related money printing, low to negative interest rates, and facilitated money lending programs. With resulting consumer inflation at 40 year highs, the bubble is being given the largest of needle pricks via an 220 year unprecedented acceleration of central bank money tightening and sharply rising interest rates. This time it is really different. A historical nonlinear devaluation of global assets is expected to be representative of that difference.
From the 90 year 1932-2021 Third Fractal November 2021 Wilshire/Bitcoin high:
the simplest mathematical y/2y/2y monthly decay fractal series is this: 3/6/6 months (with lower or higher low valuation at 3/6/6/4 months – likely higher with an earlier central bank QT to QE pivot than anticipated).
Composite Equity Valuations 2009 To Present:
1st fractal: From the ending Feb 2009 monthly low: 6/14/14 months: 32 months
2nd fractal 15/35(8/17/12)/20(6/15) months = 68 months
Terminal Valuation distortions caused by Brexit world banks’ large QE/lowered interest rates …
3rd fractal using a 15 (3/7/7) month upgoing base of the (6/15) month terminal 2nd fractal : (15)//36 (7/15/16)//33 (7/17/11) = 68 months (with lower or higher low at month 71 (15)/36/36 months.
The final 11 months of the 7/17/11 month fractal are composed of:
7/15/13/10 weeks or
31/71/60/43-44 days (with an ideal base for a 71 day second fractal of 28+ days)
The final 43-44 day decay fractal is composed of two sub fractal decay series: 2/4/4/3 days and 5/12/13/7-8 days ending Wednesday or Thursday 9/10 November 2022 with a potential longer daily time frame because of trading halts. A potential low of 14470 to 15370 is possible for the Wilshire.
Final 7-8 day 4th fractal decay series:
From the 1 November 2022 3rd fractal 13 day (key reversal day) (5/12/13 day) high : 2/4/3 to 4 days for a 5/1213/7-8 day series.
The daily timing of the crash of the composite US (and European, and Japanese) equity crash and cryptocurrency crash coincides with the Chinese property, banking, and composite equity crash.