The Great November 2023 Global Crash: Part 2 : Target Fractal low valuation date : Thursday 16 November 2023.

Not all global asset valuations will crash. Recent buyers of US bonds and US Notes will see great valuation increases in purchased sovereign debt as those investment instruments will undergo quantum fractal lower interest rates – to the 16 November 2023 composite equity. gold. commodity, and crypto low valuations. Money exiting those assets sold by the smarter speculators/AI programs will enter the US debt market driving interest rates down. The inverse Sovereign Debt fractal series, ie, Bond and Note interest rates, are following a 4-Phase Lammert x/2-2.5x/2xi/1.5xi collapse where xi is the ideal subfractal 3 and subfractal 4 whose ideal xi time length is determined by dividing the time length of subfractal 2 by 2.5. In the current case a 31 August 2023 9/20/16/3 of 12 day 4-phase Lammert fractal series ending 16 November 2023 is operative(self-assembled by the asset-debt macroeconomic system) where xi is 8 days, that is, 20 days divided by 2.5. This fractal series occurred after a self-ordered fractal series starting 4 April of 21/52/32 days :: a x/2.5x/1.5x series ending 31 August 2023.

The current fractal target date for the global intermediate crash low for equities, crypto, gold and commodities is 16 November 2023. This intermediate target date is based on two sequential monthly declining Bank of Shanghai equity 3-phase Lammert decay fractal series starting November 2017: 9/20/18 months and 9/21 of 21/12-18 months. A 27 June 2023 daily 4-phase Lammert fractal series of 14/34/29/22 days (ending 16 November 2023 ) completes a July 2021 9/21 month subfractal (1) and subfractal (2) series of a projected 9/21/12-18 month 3 phase decay fractal series. 

With its collapsing, overproduced by 100 %, and grossly overvalued property sector, China has the overproduced, over-owned, and overvalued manufacturing position that the United States had in 1929. 

Lammert Fractals are deterministically self-ordered in the most elegantly efficient manner by the global asset-debt macroeconomic system and have two simple mathematical fractal grouping patterns: a 3-phase time-based fractal pattern of x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x and a 4-phase time-base fractal pattern of x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. Self similar fractal time units can be in minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years. The 2-2.5x subfractal (3) of the 4-phase fractal pattern can be a peak such as the 90 year 8 November 2021 peak for the US 1807 36/90/90/54 year US Great fractal series or a nadir in a shorter declining series. The fractal groupings are determined by the underlying trend line from the first and last time unit of the fractal grouping which means that the nadir valuations determine fractal groupings. the nadir valuation point for the 90 year subfractal (2) of the 1807 36/90/90/54 year Lammert 4-phase great US fractal series occurred on 8 July 1932.

On 2 November 2023, selling was conducted by the “smartest” speculators or AI programs. Equities were sold to those unfortunate FOMO buyers occupying the last musical chairs resulting in gapped higher highs on 1, 2 and 3 November 2023. Conversely for the smart sellers of equities, long term US Notes and Bonds were purchased with exiting equity money with a gapped nonlinear low for Notes and Bonds on 2 and 3 November 2023 which occurred in the context of the completion of a 31 August 2023 9/20/16 day lower high peak interest rate and an 11 October 2023 16 day subfractal (3) growth series of a 3/8/7 day lower high peak interest rate. A gapped low occurred on day 17 of the 11 October subfractal (3) ending 2.5% lower of a projected 9/20/16/3 of 12 day series of lower low interest rate series ending 16 November 2023.

Gold in USD collapse to 16 November 2023.

Bitcoin in USD collapse to 16 November 2023 low valuation..

Bitcoin in USD is following a Jan 2015 20/44/36/27 month complex Lammert 4-pahes fractal series. March 2020 was the 20/44 month subfractal 1 and subfractal 2 low. Since that March 2020 low Bitcoin in USD, unintelligible QE and subsequent necessary QT have fostered system created self- assembled 30/69/42 weeks and 9/24/22 0f 23 week sequential 3=phase Lammert fractal series.

The daily fractal series for Bitcoin in USD that concludes the 9/24/23 week fractal series is a 11 October 2-023 7/17/3 of 14 day series ending 16 November 2023.

Below is the asset-debt macroeconomic system’s self assembly fractal nature of the 13 March 2023 to 16 November 2023 low consisting of a 52/113 of 122 day :: x/2x-2.5x subfractal 1 and subfractal 2 series:

The Great November 2023 Global Crash

The current fractal target date for the global intermediate crash low for equities, crypto, gold and commodities is 14 November 2023. This intermediate target date is based on two sequential monthly declining Bank of Shanghai equity 3-phase Lammert decay fractal series starting November 2017: 9/20/18 months and 9/21 of 21/12-18 months. A 27 June 2023 daily 4-phase Lammert fractal series of 14/34/28/21 days (ending 14 November 2023 ) completes a July 2021 9/21 month subfractal (1) and subfractal (2) series of a projected 9/21/12-18 month 3 phase decay fractal series.

With its collapsing overproduced by 100 % and grossly overvalued property sector, China has the overproduced and overproduced manufacturing position that the the United Staes had in 1929.

Lammert Fractals are deterministically self-ordered in the most elegantly efficient manner by the global asset-debt macroeconomic system and have two simple mathematical fractal grouping patterns: a 3-phase time-based fractal pattern of x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x and a 4-phase time-base fractal pattern of x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. Self similar fractal time units can be in minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years. The 2-2.5x subfractal (3) of the 4-phase fractal pattern can be a peak such as the 90 year 8 November 2021 peak for the US 1807 36/90/90/54 year great fractal series or a nadir in a declining series. The fractal groupings are determined by the underlying trend line from the first and last time unit of the fractal grouping which means that the nadir valuations determine fractal groupings. the nadir valuation point for the 90 year subfractal (2) of the 1807 36/90/90/54 year Lammert 4-phase great US fractal series occurred on 8 July 1932.

On 2 November 2023, selling and buying were conducted by the “smartest” speculators or AI programs. Equities were sold to those occupying the last musical chairs with gapped higher highs on 1 and 2 November. Conversely for the smart sellers of equities, long term US Notes and Bonds were purchased with exiting equity money with a gapped nonlinear low for Notes and Bonds on 2 November 2023 which was the trading day after the completion of a 31 August 2023 9/20/16 day lower high peak interest rate and an 11 October 2023 16 day subfractal (3) 3/8/7 day lower high peak interest rate. A gapped low occurred on day 17 of the 11 October subfractal (3) ending 2.5% lower of a projected 25 day lower low interest rate series.

Lammert Self-Assembly Saturation Asset-Debt Macroeconomics: The Great Interpolated 1982 13/30 Year 30 Year Subfractal (2) Nonlinear Collapse: Expected SPX First terminal Crash Low: Mid Trading Day – Thursday 2 November 2023

Within the Great 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Fractal series – with a 36 year low valuation in 1842-43, a 90 year low valuation on 8 July 1932, a 90 year peak valuation on 8 November 2021, and an expected low in 2074, a several decade interpolated fractal series of x/2-2.5x started on 11-12 August 1982 of 13/30 years with a 13 year subfractal (1) low valuation ending in 1994. This is depicted below.

Subfractal (2) series end in nonlinear devaluation. This can occur over months as occurred for the 90 year subfractal (2) ending in 1932 or more suddenly as in October 1987 and on 6 May 2010.

Interpolated within the 1994 30 year subfractal (2) is a terminal March 2020 4 phase fractal series whose x/2.5x/2-2.5x lower high growth is completed. See below:

The terminal 3/6 month growth of subfractal (3) 17 months is composed of a two fractal sub fractals: subfractal (1) starting 13 March 2023 of 52 days and subfractal (2) staring on 24 May 2023, which as of 24 October 2023 end of trading day, is on day 106 days and is within the 104 to 130 day :: 2x-2.5x window of subfractal (2) nonlinearity. See below.

Starting 18 August 2023 two 4-hour unit fractal series occur sequentially as depicted below and ending mid trading day on Thursday 2 November 2023. See below:

The Bank of Shanghai is the following the massive China’s property collapse and a current default on rollover debt owed by mega construction corporations. The Bank of Shanghai has an expected intermediate subfractal (2) low on the 83rd week of a 33/83 week fractal series with a subfractal (3) low in 1.5x -2x or 49 to 66 weeks. See below: This chart was created two weeks ago and the 83 week subfractal (2) is currently in the 82nd week of the 83 weeks.

The final 18 weeks of the 83 week subfractal (2 ) is composed of a 10/25/14-15 day fractal series and a 7/18/17 day fractal series ending on 2 November 2023.

All asset classes will undergo synchronous nonlinear devaluation to 2 November 2023 except held sovereign US debt which will rise in value (lower interest rates).

 A 20/44/44 month :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series for Bitcoin in USD that started in January 2015 with a final lower high gapped peak on 24 October 2023 will undergo a crash devaluation. Cryptocurrencies (use GBTC as a proxy) have undergone a 26 September 2023 short squeeze blow-off of 4/10/8 days :: x/2.5x/2x with a gapped high today and likely ending on the low of the day. This blow-off series will convert to a crash devaluation series of 4/10/10/6 days. The final 6th day of this crypto fractal series is 2 November 2023 and coincides with the expected terminal day of a weekly 29 Sept 2021 gold fractal series of 15/38/37/22 weeks :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x with the final 22 weeks composed of a 7 June 2023 15/37/33/22 days :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x ending on 2 November 2023.

A Primer on the the Self-Assembly Time-scale Fractal Nature of the growth and decay of asset valuations within the deterministic asset-debt macroeconomic system:

There are only two elegantly simple laws of time-based  fractal asset-debt macroeconomics: 

While money and credit growth (and contraction)by central banks and government spending is periodically irregular, equity and commodity composite valuations set order their growth and decay by only two distinct  time-based fractal patterns(mathematical laws): a three phase pattern: composed of three subfractals:1/2/ and 3  ::  x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x – where x is the base first fractal time length in days, weeks, months, and years.

and a four phase pattern: composed of 4 subfractals: 1/2/3/ and 4  :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x, where x is the base first fractal time length in days, weeks, months, and years.   Subfractal(3) of the 4 phase fractal series pattern can be a peak valuation such as the 2.5x 90 year subfractal (3) on 8 November 2021 or a low valuation in a declining fractal series.

The time length of subfractal 2 (2-2.5x) of the 3 and 4 phase fractal series often determines the ideal time length of subfractal 1 : (x’) upon which the lengths of sub-fractals 3 and 4 are based: e.g., the 4 phase  fractal pattern’s time lengths become x/(2-2.5x divided by 2.5 = x’)/2-2.5x’/1.5-1.6x’.

Added 26 October 2023 0847 EST: Below is depicted the French stock market composite CAC’s sequential two daily fractal decay series to the nonlinear 2 November 2023 Crash low.

The Fractal History of the 19 October 1987 global crash and the comparison to the 2 November 2023 crash:

The 1987 SPX and global crash occurred in the subfractal (2) 2-2.5x nonlinear devaluation widow of two interpolated subfractal (1) and. subfractal (2) monthly fractal series. The first was a 20/45 of 46 months fractal series starting in July 1982 and the second, an interpolated fractal series of 11/26 of 27 months fractal starting in November 1984.

Preceding the Sept-Oct 3 phase daily crash fractal series was a self-ordered 20 May 1987 4-phase 13/32/25/18 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series ending 21 September 1987. The 4/9/10 day :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x 3-phase crash series occurred from 21 September to 19 October 1987 with a peak to nadir loss of 33%.

The SPX is again in the terminal 2x-2.5x nonlinear devaluation window of two subfractal(1) and subfractal (2)series: a 1982 13/30 year fractal series and a 13 March 2023 52/107 day fractal series. The crash daily decay fractal series appears to be a 27 September to 2 November 2023 5/12/12 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x series. At a 4-hour unit level the last 12 days appear to be following a 4/10/10 4-hour unit :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal decay series ideally ending around noon on the trading day of 2 November 2023. The greatest decline will likely occur in the last units of the final 10 4-hour unit sequence.

Added: 0946 EST 26 October: A Comparison of The Crash of September-19 October 1987 to the Crash of October to 2 November 2023.


A History of October 1987 Quantum Fractal Series:

The 1987 SPX and global crash occurred in the subfractal (2) 2-2.5x nonlinear devaluation widow of two interpolated
subfractal (1) and. subfractal (2) monthly fractal series. The first was a 20/45 of 46 months fractal series starting in July 1982 and the second an interpolated fractal series of 11/26 of 27 months fractal starting in November 1984.

Preceding the Sept-Oct 3 phase daily crash fractal series was a self-ordered 20 May 1987 4-phase 13/32/25/18 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series ending 21 September 1987. The 4/9/10 day :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x 3-phase crash series occurred from 21 September to 19 October 1987 with a peak to nadir loss of 33%.

The SPX is again in the terminal 2x-2.5x nonlinear devaluation window of two subfractal(1) and subfractal (2)series: a 1982 13/30 year fractal series and a 13 March 2023 52/107 day fractal series. The crash daily decay fractal series appears to be a 27 September to 2 November 2023 5/12/12 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x series. At a 4-hour unit level the last 12 days appear to be following a 4/10/10 4-hour unit :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal decay series ideally ending around noon on the trading day of 2 November 2023. The greatest decline will likely occur in the last units of the final (10) 4-hour unit sequence.

Below: Added 29 October 832 PM EST

The 27 September 2023 32/78/78 hour :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal decay crash to the end of the trading day 2 November 2023

The final daily fractal decay sequence of a 13 March 2023 52/113 day :: subfractal (1) and subfractal (2) is a 3-phase series of 5+/12/12 days beginning on 27 Sept and ending 2 November 2023 (assuming no trading halts). On a hourly basis a 32.78/78 hour, 3- phase X/2.5x/2.5x decay fractal series is observed starting 0930 EST on 27 September 2023 and ending 400PM EST 2 November 2023.

Non-Stochastic Saturation Macroeconomics