The December2018 Expected SPX Weekly Nonlinear Collapse:

This December 2018 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5y weekly fractal pattern of 7/17/17/(5 of)10 weeks mirrors the 1807 US Hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year pattern expected to end in about 2073.

The December 2018 daily fractal  pattern is 32/79/avg 74-75/48 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5y.

With an initiating fractal series of 18 years, the  US Hegemonic Great Fractal series started in 1807 and is composed of three decades-long  sub fractals: 36/90-91/88 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x. The  maximal debt dependent peak equity  growth saturation valuation of the third 88 year year sub fractal  occurred on 26 July 2019.

Coming is a breathtaking US hegemonic 88-89 year 3rd  fractal collapse. The 2019 third fractal collapse with its  more acute and shorter dv/dt negative valuation nonlinearity will pale the slower descent of the 32 month peak-to-nadir 1929-1932  :: 88-91 year US hegemonic 2nd fractal collapse.

Retrospectively, in the terminal portions of expected monthly decay fractal subunits both in 2003 after the dot.com debt and fraud expanded bubble and in 2009 after the greater housing  debt and fraud  expanded bubble,  global  central bank and sovereign  interventions  made measurable and observable differences in the natural fractal progression of expected composite equity valuation decay, bending negative devaluations to the positive side within the terminal two subunit series of the final fractal decline –  but still self assembled   in  the deterministic self organized fractal valuation quantum subunit units that characterize the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System.

As well, the equities market is a zero sum game.  Those taking profits at peak valuations will reenter the market at lower valuation areas which likewise accounts for the bending of the expected terminal sub fractal unit nadir lows.

For the SPX, representing the plurality global equity proxy, this subunit bending occurred in 2002-3 and again in 2008-2009 where the last two subunits of a y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y  naturally occurring 4 phase fractal decay progression, instead of occurring in a negative dv/dt rate,  (v = valuation, t =time) occurred in a positive dv/dt trend or y/2-2.5y/2.5x/1.5 x while the self organization of the (monthly) fractal  quantum fractal pattern remained intact.

Quantitative easing and cash for clunkers did jump start the system’s equities to a positive dv/dt , bending the last two subunits  of the expected naturally occurring  y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y  four phase fractal progression to a positive valuation or y/2-2.5y/2.5x/1.5x.

The base fractal sequence from the SPX 2002 low was 3/6/6/4 or 16 months. Central banks lowered interest rates and facilitated debt growth through lower interest rates,  derivative manipulations, overinflated credit scores,  and manipulated engineered financial instruments to allow initiation of positive SPX valuation growth in late 2002. Politicians urged the base population of the macroeconomic pyramid to shop and spend(acquire more debt).

The resultant three phase fractal series of x/2-2.5x/2-5xy in 2002 for the SPX was 16/33-34/33-39  months with the  peak equity valuation of the final 2-2.5 x/y 39 month fractal occurring on 11 October 2007.  The last 39 month fractal was 9/20/12 months with a low on the 33-34 month which  mirrors the final 1982  9/20/12  projected yearly fractal low although central banks will attempt to intervene again,  likely bending  the  monthly nadir low in 2020 from its ideal low .  On the other hand, with European banks currently at negative interest rates and the potential fragmentation of the European Union, the ideal nadir point may be reached.

The final 12 year fractal starting on Sept 2  2009 ( vice in March 2009) is composed of an expected  26(21 ideal)/53/53 month :: x/2.5x/2.5xy complex fractal with a peak at x/2.5x/2x ::  21/53/42 months in July 2019. The 21 month base fractal ideal (vice 26 month actual) is based on a 53 month second fractal.  Note that the 26 month base fractal starting in September 2009 is composed of a 2/5/4/3 month 4 phase  growth and decay fractal series followed by a  3/7/8 month 3 phase :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5xy fractal series.

The third sub fractal 42 month peak sex composite valuation occurred on 26 July 2019 and was composed of a  9/19/16 month fractal series (note that the ideal 2x third fractal peak for a 19 month second fractal with an ideal base of 8 months is  16 months.) The  final lower secondary high on 19 September 2019 at 9/19/18 months.

There is an elegance in the simplicity of the fractal valuation progression of this  macroeconomic asset debt system akin to the elegant simple math of non black hole macro and quantum-mechanic physics. The earthly asset debt macroeconomic saturation fractal mathematical  termination of a x/2.5x/2x :: 21 ideal/53/42 month fractal growth sequence contained in the larger x/2.5x/2.5y :: 21/53/53 month decay sequence is …  simply … the most efficiently elegant mathematical pathway to capture terminal growth in a slightly longer debt-liquidation dependent asset-overvaluation depreciation dependent decay sequence where the base economy of real citizens are caught in the terminal nonlinear decline of the saturated macroeconomic system.

The expected mathematical low for the SPX is June 2020.

The baseline fractal series from the November 2019 low is expected to be y/2-2.5y/2-2.5xy/1.5xy and likely 3/6/7-8/4 months. This would place the low in June 2019 with a terminal equities valuation rise for about 11 months before the next determinant base fractal series evolves.

If central banks and sovereigns are unsuccessful, the final low could at the final subunits’ nadir lows.  Again the equities market is a zero sum game.  Those taking profits near peak valuations will reenter the market which likewise accounts for the positive  bending of the terminal nadir fractal nodal lows.

With an initiating fractal series of 18 years, The the  US Hegemonic Great Fractal series started in I 1807 and is composed of three decades-long  sub fractals: 36/90-91/88 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x. The  maximal debt dependent peak equity  growth saturation valuation of the third 88 year year sub fractal  occurred on 26 July 2019.

Coming is a breathtaking US hegemonic 88-89 year 3rd  fractal collapse. The 2019 third fractal collapse with its  more acute and shorter dv/dt negative valuation nonlinearity will pale the slower descent of the 32 month peak-to-nadir 1929-1932  :: 88-91 year US hegemonic 2nd fractal collapse.

Retrospectively, global  Central Bank and Sovereign  interventions have made measurable and observable differences in the natural fractal progression of composite equity valuation decay, bending negative devaluations to the positive side within the subunit series final fractal decline –  but still self organized  in  the deterministic self organized fractal valuation quantum subunit units that characterize the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System.

For the SPX, representing the plurality global equity proxy, this subunit bending occurred in 2002-3 and again in 2008-2009 where the last two subunits of a y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y  naturally occurring 4 phase fractal decay progression, instead of occurring at a negative dv/dt rate,  (v = valuation, t =time) occurred at a positive dv/dt trend or y/2-2.5y/2.5x/1.5 x while the (monthly) fractal  quantum subunits remained intact.

The base fractal sequence from the SPX 2002 low was 3/6/6/4 or 16 months. Central banks lowered interest rates and facilitated debt growth through lower interest rates,  derivative manipulations, overinflated credit scores,  and manipulated engineered financial instruments to allow initiation of positive SPX valuation growth in late 2002. Politicians urged the base population of the macroeconomic pyramid to shop and spend(acquire more debt).

The resultant growth fractal in 2002 for the SPX was 16/33/39 months.  The last 39 month fractal was 9/20/12 which  mirrors the final 1982  9/20/12  projected yearly fractal low although central banks will attempt to intervene again,  likely bending  the  monthly nadir low in 2020 from its ideal low .  On the other hand, with European banks currently at negative interest rates and the potential fragmentation of the European Union, the ideal nadir point may be reached.

The final 12 year fractal starting on Sept 2  2009 ( vice in March 2009) is composed of an expected  26(21 ideal)/53/53 month :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal with a peak at x/2.5x/2x ::  21/53/42 months in July 2019. The 21 month base fractal ideal (vice 26 month actual) is based on a 53 month second fractal.  Note that the 26 month base fractal starting in September 2009 is composed of a 2/5/4/3 month 4 phase  growth and decay fractal series followed by a  3/7/8 month 3 phase decay fractal series

The third sub fractal 42 month peak valuation occurred on 26 July 2019 and was composed of a  9/19/16 month fractal series with a final lower secondary high on 19 September 2019 at 9/19/18 months.

There is an elegance in the simplicity of this macroeconomic asset debt system akin to the elegant simple math of non black hole macro and quantum-mechanic physics. The earthly asset debt macroeconomic saturation fractal mathematical  termination of a x/2.5x/2x :: 21 ideal/53/42 month fractal growth sequence contained in the y/2.5y/2.5y :: 21/53/53 month decay sequence is …  simply … the most efficiently elegant mathematical pathway to capture terminal growth in a slightly longer decay sequence.

Again, if central banks and politicians are creative  and effective enough  in doing their jobs, the 2020 low valuation for global composite equity’s will be short of a 26(21 month ideal)/53/53 month fractal progression. With global central bank stimulus , the low, like 2003 and 2009, could be in March 2020 at the second sub fractal  termination, rather than in June 2020 at the end of the third sub fractal for a 26/53/53 month :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y

of a 2/5/4-5/3 month sub fractal series.

Saturation Macroeconomics: The US Hegemonic 1807 212 year Third Fractal collapse: 36/90/88 years :: Dec 2018 32/79/77 days … Bitcoin leads the way: a  Deterministic Global Asset Valuation Collapse

The secondary SPX composite equity peak valuation for the global system was on 19 September 2019.  26 July 2019 represented the nominal peak for the SPX US equities composite. 

The coming 8 week  nonlinear devaluation is deterministic, unrelated to political events, and is an inherent expected part of the natural decay process of  the macroeconomic system.

This deterministic asset debt macroeconomic system is self organizing in its  growth, peak asset and debt valuations, and in its fractal time dependent  asset and debt  Gompertz’s like valuation fractal  decays.  

Qualitatively growth phases are self reinforcing and additive and  promote employment which generate more debt based asset growth related to its nature in generating more base borrowing 

… until a saturation peak of debt load, employment, asset valuation and asset ownership is reached for the population constituting the base of the macroeconomic system pyramid.Thereafter,

natural devolution of asset over valuation, over ownership, and bad debt liquidation occur … associated with rapid increases in unemployment and further deleveraging.

This blog observes the macroeconomic system as having  elegantly simple self assembly and deterministic underlying growth and decay fractal mathematical patterns. 

The general growth (x) and decay pattern (y) occurs in a x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5y four phase fractal pattern and the subset decay pattern occurs in  a y’/2-2.5y’/2-2.5y ‘ time pattern.

For the United States with an initiating base of 18 years starting in 1790, the 1807  x/2.5x/2.5x saturation growth pattern is 36/90/88-90 years (212 years) with 1932 

observed as the end of the second US equity equivalent fractal period. The global macroeconomic system is in its 88th year of a 88-90 year third fractal cycle, defined by its  current hegemonic 

leading country. The 4th phase 1.5y time period decay fractal for the US to complete this cycle is 54 years.

Commodities, Metals, Bitcoin, and Global Composite Equities are at a time dependent edge of an intermediate and significant  nonlinear devaluation. With current debt load of both sovereigns and base populations,

all entities (except US sovereign debt futures)have reached their peak valuations for the third 88-90 year fractal cycle.  All asset and debt valuations are based  on the summation denominator of the total worth of those assets and debts. 

Bitcoin as the most useful of commodities is leading the current intermediate valuation collapse.