Asset Debt Macroeconomic System Collapse: The Recent 1982 Mathematical Fractal Progression of the Global Asset Debt System


With an initiating fractal series of 18 years, The the  US Hegemonic Great Fractal series started in I 1807 and is composed of three decades-long  sub fractals: 36/90-91/88 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x. The  maximal debt dependent peak equity  growth saturation valuation of the third 88 year year sub fractal  occurred on 26 July 2019.

Coming is a breathtaking US hegemonic 88-89 year 3rd  fractal collapse. The 2019 third fractal collapse with its  more acute and shorter dv/dt negative valuation nonlinearity will pale the slower descent of the 32 month peak-to-nadir 1929-1932  :: 88-91 year US hegemonic 2nd fractal collapse.

Retrospectively, global  Central Bank and Sovereign  interventions have made measurable and observable differences in the natural fractal progression of composite equity valuation decay, bending negative devaluations to the positive side within the subunit series final fractal decline –  but still self organized  in  the deterministic self organized fractal valuation quantum subunit units that characterize the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System.

For the SPX, representing the plurality global equity proxy, this subunit bending occurred in 2002-3 and again in 2008-2009 where the last two subunits of a y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y  naturally occurring 4 phase fractal decay progression, instead of occurring at a negative dv/dt rate,  (v = valuation, t =time) occurred at a positive dv/dt trend or y/2-2.5y/2.5x/1.5 x while the (monthly) fractal  quantum subunits remained intact.

The base fractal sequence from the SPX 2002 low was 3/6/6/4 or 16 months. Central banks lowered interest rates and facilitated debt growth through lower interest rates,  derivative manipulations, overinflated credit scores,  and manipulated engineered financial instruments to allow initiation of positive SPX valuation growth in late 2002. Politicians urged the base population of the macroeconomic pyramid to shop and spend(acquire more debt).

The resultant growth fractal in 2002 for the SPX was 16/33/39 months.  The last 39 month fractal was 9/20/12 which  mirrors the final 1982  9/20/12  projected yearly fractal low although central banks will attempt to intervene again,  likely bending  the  monthly nadir low in 2020 from its ideal low .  On the other hand, with European banks currently at negative interest rates and the potential fragmentation of the European Union, the ideal nadir point may be reached.

The final 12 year fractal starting on Sept 2  2009 ( vice in March 2009) is composed of an expected  26(21 ideal)/53/53 month :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal with a peak at x/2.5x/2x ::  21/53/42 months in July 2019. The 21 month base fractal ideal (vice 26 month actual) is based on a 53 month second fractal.  Note that the 26 month base fractal starting in September 2009 is composed of a 2/5/4/3 month 4 phase  growth and decay fractal series followed by a  3/7/8 month 3 phase decay fractal series

The third sub fractal 42 month peak valuation occurred on 26 July 2019 and was composed of a  9/19/16 month fractal series with a final lower secondary high on 19 September 2019 at 9/19/18 months.

There is an elegance in the simplicity of this macroeconomic asset debt system akin to the elegant simple math of non black hole macro and quantum-mechanic physics. The earthly asset debt macroeconomic saturation fractal mathematical  termination of a x/2.5x/2x :: 21 ideal/53/42 month fractal growth sequence contained in the y/2.5y/2.5y :: 21/53/53 month decay sequence is …  simply … the most efficiently elegant mathematical pathway to capture terminal growth in a slightly longer decay sequence.

Again, if central banks and politicians are creative  and effective enough  in doing their jobs, the 2020 low valuation for global composite equity’s will be short of a 26(21 month ideal)/53/53 month fractal progression. With global central bank stimulus , the low, like 2003 and 2009, could be in March 2020 at the second sub fractal  termination, rather than in June 2020 at the end of the third sub fractal for a 26/53/53 month :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y

of a 2/5/4-5/3 month sub fractal series.





Leave a Reply