The Great November 2019 Global Equity Nonlinear Crash:

As Deutsche Bank goes from its December lows: 7.5/18/15/10 of 12 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x so goes the Global Macroeconomic Asset Debt Valuation System:

In the face of global stagnation: default on bad global debt is at its qualitative  nonlinear break point.

The global system  now has the dual burdens  of enormous debt load and a non-expanding global economy.  In the setting of a  non-expanding economy to partially service and sustain the quality of  that debt, recognition will be made that the debt cannot be repaid and it will under default initiating a cascade of asset devaluation and larger secondary derivative bet devaluations.

From its December 2018 lows, the Deutsche Bank weekly fractal series conveys the true state of both the European and Global Macroeconomic system. Quantitatively Deutsche Bank’s weekly fractal series and current week of that fractal series exactly matches the Global Macroeconomy’s position of sudden nonlinear collapse.

The inability and failure to further expand and inflate to sustain debt quality represents the exact conditions of a terminal illness for global asset-debt system’s  peak cycle asset valuations. 

Like death, asset devaluation is a sudden nonlinear event.

Was the US Federal Reserve right in lowering interest rates and encouraging citizens to preferentially place their money in a stock market deterministically destined to collapse within a fixed time fractal frame?

The Reserve can make the claim that it was attempting to  do everything it  could to prevent the inevitable. 

For Deutsche Bank, its weekly fractal series is telltale of a nonlinear collapse occurring over the next 7 to 8 trading days. Deutsche Bank’s first and second fractals are in a classical Lammert Fractal pattern of x/2.5x :: 7.5/18 weeks.

Deutsche Bank’s third and fourth weekly fractals of the four phase series are interpolated into two subfractal series of 2/5/4/3 weeks and  3/7/6 of 8 week series with a peak valuation on week 15 of the interpolated series or week 2x of the x/2.5x/2x :: 7.5/18/15 week fractal growth series. The 4th week fractal is composed of 12 weeks starting from the 15 week high of the third fractal for a completed fractal series from the December low of 7.5/18/15/12 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x.  Nonlinearity and DB devaluation is expected in the next  8 trading days representing weeks 11 and 12 of the 4th descent fractal.

For the SPX from its December 2018 low,  the final series is x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x :: 32/79/77/42 of 50 days with the 1.5-1.6x 4th fractal in  a yx’y’  pattern with x’ representing a 32 day blow-off fractal.

The SPX December 2018  low’s first and second fractals of 32/79days :: x/2.5x  exactly matches Deutsch Bank’s December 2018 low’s first and second weekly fractals.  

The SPX’s third fractal has a secondary peak of  2.5x or 77 days. The first y descent of its 4th fractal  from the 77 day peak third fractal is part of a larger 16 day base descent fractal  for an expected 40 day second fractal. 

The blow off  x’ fractal is now at the 32nd day with a gap higher on Friday 15 November 2018 ending near the high of the day. The x’  32 day blow off fractal pattern (with a 16 day base descent fractal ) is composed of two subfractals: 4/9/6 days and 5/10/3 days with an expected  y’ descent of 8 days for a 16/40 day :: x/2.5x fractal series.

Expect the inevitable deterministic  and mathematical expected. Expect system nonlinear devaluation.

Google’s base fractal sequence (x) starting in 2004 self assembled itself into a classic Lammert Fractal 4 phase growth and decay series lasting 18 quarters. (see graph below: 3/7/6/5 quarters =18 quarters) The maximum length of a second fractal series is 2.5 times the base sequence (x).  For Google with  a first fractal base sequence of 18 quarters, the maximum length of the second fractal is 45 quarters x/2.5x ::18/45 quarters.

In October 2019, Google entered the time period of its second fractal’s 45th quarter.  Google’s 45 quarter second fractal is composed of two sub fractals, the first of 13 quarters and the second of 33 quarters. This also is a x/2.5x sequence of 13/33 quarters.

In October 2019 Google entered the 33rd quarter of its 45 quarter second fractal  x/2.5 ::13/33 quarter sub fractal series.

From the face page of the 2005 Economic Fractalist:

The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle.

Expect the expected which the elegantly simple patterned science of saturation macroeconomics allows prediction.

The global asset debt macroeconomic system is elegantly quantifiable and deterministic in its intrinsic nature. Its assets grow in sequential fractal and sub fractal units  to their necessary maximum valuation saturation areas which underlying  debt expansion can produce with thereafter necessary devaluation in a Gompertz fractal manner.

The December2018 Expected SPX Weekly Nonlinear Collapse:

This December 2018 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5y weekly fractal pattern of 7/17/17/(5 of)10 weeks mirrors the 1807 US Hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year pattern expected to end in about 2073.

The December 2018 daily fractal  pattern is 32/79/avg 74-75/48 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5y.

With an initiating fractal series of 18 years, the  US Hegemonic Great Fractal series started in 1807 and is composed of three decades-long  sub fractals: 36/90-91/88 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x. The  maximal debt dependent peak equity  growth saturation valuation of the third 88 year year sub fractal  occurred on 26 July 2019.

Coming is a breathtaking US hegemonic 88-89 year 3rd  fractal collapse. The 2019 third fractal collapse with its  more acute and shorter dv/dt negative valuation nonlinearity will pale the slower descent of the 32 month peak-to-nadir 1929-1932  :: 88-91 year US hegemonic 2nd fractal collapse.

Retrospectively, in the terminal portions of expected monthly decay fractal subunits both in 2003 after the dot.com debt and fraud expanded bubble and in 2009 after the greater housing  debt and fraud  expanded bubble,  global  central bank and sovereign  interventions  made measurable and observable differences in the natural fractal progression of expected composite equity valuation decay, bending negative devaluations to the positive side within the terminal two subunit series of the final fractal decline –  but still self assembled   in  the deterministic self organized fractal valuation quantum subunit units that characterize the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System.

As well, the equities market is a zero sum game.  Those taking profits at peak valuations will reenter the market at lower valuation areas which likewise accounts for the bending of the expected terminal sub fractal unit nadir lows.

For the SPX, representing the plurality global equity proxy, this subunit bending occurred in 2002-3 and again in 2008-2009 where the last two subunits of a y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y  naturally occurring 4 phase fractal decay progression, instead of occurring in a negative dv/dt rate,  (v = valuation, t =time) occurred in a positive dv/dt trend or y/2-2.5y/2.5x/1.5 x while the self organization of the (monthly) fractal  quantum fractal pattern remained intact.

Quantitative easing and cash for clunkers did jump start the system’s equities to a positive dv/dt , bending the last two subunits  of the expected naturally occurring  y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y  four phase fractal progression to a positive valuation or y/2-2.5y/2.5x/1.5x.

The base fractal sequence from the SPX 2002 low was 3/6/6/4 or 16 months. Central banks lowered interest rates and facilitated debt growth through lower interest rates,  derivative manipulations, overinflated credit scores,  and manipulated engineered financial instruments to allow initiation of positive SPX valuation growth in late 2002. Politicians urged the base population of the macroeconomic pyramid to shop and spend(acquire more debt).

The resultant three phase fractal series of x/2-2.5x/2-5xy in 2002 for the SPX was 16/33-34/33-39  months with the  peak equity valuation of the final 2-2.5 x/y 39 month fractal occurring on 11 October 2007.  The last 39 month fractal was 9/20/12 months with a low on the 33-34 month which  mirrors the final 1982  9/20/12  projected yearly fractal low although central banks will attempt to intervene again,  likely bending  the  monthly nadir low in 2020 from its ideal low .  On the other hand, with European banks currently at negative interest rates and the potential fragmentation of the European Union, the ideal nadir point may be reached.

The final 12 year fractal starting on Sept 2  2009 ( vice in March 2009) is composed of an expected  26(21 ideal)/53/53 month :: x/2.5x/2.5xy complex fractal with a peak at x/2.5x/2x ::  21/53/42 months in July 2019. The 21 month base fractal ideal (vice 26 month actual) is based on a 53 month second fractal.  Note that the 26 month base fractal starting in September 2009 is composed of a 2/5/4/3 month 4 phase  growth and decay fractal series followed by a  3/7/8 month 3 phase :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5xy fractal series.

The third sub fractal 42 month peak sex composite valuation occurred on 26 July 2019 and was composed of a  9/19/16 month fractal series (note that the ideal 2x third fractal peak for a 19 month second fractal with an ideal base of 8 months is  16 months.) The  final lower secondary high on 19 September 2019 at 9/19/18 months.

There is an elegance in the simplicity of the fractal valuation progression of this  macroeconomic asset debt system akin to the elegant simple math of non black hole macro and quantum-mechanic physics. The earthly asset debt macroeconomic saturation fractal mathematical  termination of a x/2.5x/2x :: 21 ideal/53/42 month fractal growth sequence contained in the larger x/2.5x/2.5y :: 21/53/53 month decay sequence is …  simply … the most efficiently elegant mathematical pathway to capture terminal growth in a slightly longer debt-liquidation dependent asset-overvaluation depreciation dependent decay sequence where the base economy of real citizens are caught in the terminal nonlinear decline of the saturated macroeconomic system.

The expected mathematical low for the SPX is June 2020.

The baseline fractal series from the November 2019 low is expected to be y/2-2.5y/2-2.5xy/1.5xy and likely 3/6/7-8/4 months. This would place the low in June 2019 with a terminal equities valuation rise for about 11 months before the next determinant base fractal series evolves.

If central banks and sovereigns are unsuccessful, the final low could at the final subunits’ nadir lows.  Again the equities market is a zero sum game.  Those taking profits near peak valuations will reenter the market which likewise accounts for the positive  bending of the terminal nadir fractal nodal lows.