All posts by Gary Lammert

A 4/24/2023 22 Trading Day 50 Percent Nonlinear Decline in Global Composite Equity Valuations


There is a mathematical fractal case for an interpolated 1981-82 13/30 year first 13 year base fractal and 30 year second fractal major terminal nonlinearity. This interpolated series is contained within a larger US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series with lows in 1807, 1842-43, 1932, and 2074 and a 90 year third fractal high in November 2021.

Both the French CAC and Wilshire are following a x/2.5x/2x/1.5x :: 15/37/30/22 day fractal series starting 12/30/2022 and 12/28/2022 (trading holidays account for the difference of starting dates.) The CAC reached its all time average day valuation high on 4/24/2023, day 30 of the series’ third fractal. The Wilshire’s valuation peaked earlier on 8 November 2021. Both composites are following a March 2020 low 33/66/66-67 week :: x/2x/2x high/lower high valuations. From its 4/24 peak valuation the 22 day 4th decay fractal appears to a 4/21/2023 4/9/7/6 day series with the Wilshire a trading day ahead of the CAC. The Wilshire is currently on day 7 and CAC currently on day 6 of the 9 day second fractal. The 7 day third fractal can be expected to be a valuation increase lateral and upward. The final 6 days would be trade nonlinearly lower with some short counter rallies.

From 1981 to 1993 there is a 10/26/16 quarter first base fractal series totaling 50 quarters. (the 1987 crash was quarter 11, the end of a second sub-fractal of a 26 quarter 5/11/12 quarter series)The 30 year second fractal is composed of 4 sub-series:
1994-2002: 34 quarters: 3/8/6/4 (18) and 3/8/8 (17)
2002-2009: 27 quarters: 3/7/8 (16) and 2/5/5/3 (12)
2009-2016: 29 quarters: 2/5/4/3(11) {(6) composed of a 3/6/8 month fractal series)} and 3/7/6 (14)
2016 to 2024 32 quarters: 4/8/6 (16) 3/7/6/?4 (17)

The total quarters for the first and second fractals are currently 50/116 pacing the timing between 2x and 2.5x (100 and 125) of the second fractal, where terminal nonlinearity could result in 50 percent valuation losses with a lower low valuation in 4 quarters (2024).

This quantitative asset-debt system mathematical fractal model has the appeal of internal consistency.

The March 2020 28/70/67 of 70 Week May 2023 Global (non debt) Asset Crash Devaluation

Over the next 3 weeks and 15 trading days, basic use and precious metal commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and global equities will undergo a severe crash devaluation reflecting both the historical money supply increase in the covid QE period and the subsequent consumer inflation central bank QT response with historical draconian money supply contraction. Only in the 1930s has money contraction occurred to this degree.

An average total asset growth and decay series from the March 2020 low of 28/70/67 of 70/42 weeks :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x is undergoing self-assembly.

This will complete the first and second fractal of an interpolated 1982 13/31/31-32/20-19 years series, which is part of the US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year series with a low in 1842/43, a low in 1932, and a third fractal high valuation in November 2021.

Expect rapid lowering of Fed Funds interest rates after the crash.

The March 2022 QT Reckoning 14 April 2023 4th Fractal Crash Devaluation: the Asset-Debt System’s March 2020 33/72(ideal base 29 week)/58/43-45 week Self-assembly 4 Phase Fractal Series

Every individual asset class including commodes and cryptocurrencies can be thought of as being denominated in the total valuation of all (global)assets. When stock valuations decline, bonds lose book value, or debt is defaulted, the total global valuation is diminished. Two to ten year US Treasury yield inversion is the hallmark of Federal Reserve credit tightening and has preceded recessions in 1972-4, 1980-2, 1990-91, 2001, 2007-2009, and 2019-20. This time is different, a much greater % to total debt to GDP exist and a colossal quantitative amount of bad debt needs to be liquidated. The Zombie corporations like many ditsy start-up tech companies, the ARKk ETF, and airline companies have led and will lead the equity valuation decline.

The peak for the CAC and secondary peak for all other equity markets occurred near 14 April 2023, a 33/72 (ideal base 29 x’)/58 week :: x/2.5x’/2x’ fractal growth series. The 58 week third fractal is composed of two weekly series: a four phase growth and decay series of 5/11/10/7 weeks and a 6/13/12 week three phase growth series. A 9 week decay series is coming next.

The final daily series for the French CAC’s second 6/13/12 week fractal series series is 26/62/52 days starting at the low on 29 Sept 2022. and ending at the 52 day high on 14 April 2023. The 52 day series is composed of a 9/22/22 day fractal. Interpolated within this is a 13 March 2023 10/14 of 21/21/13 which completes a 26/62/52/39 day series. The 39 day 9 week decay series would serve as a base for a 9/18-19/18-19 week series completing a four phase March 2020 33/72(ideal base 29)/58/43-44 week series.