The asset-debt macroeconomic system’s global composite equity valuation, represented by the 100 + trillion dollar equivalent ETF ACWI, reached – ( and influenced by 2020-2021 US central bank QE and enhanced/ rocket fuel-propelled 5 year 8-9% average annual deficit to GDP ratio governmental fiscal spending) – peaked on 7 November 2024 with the observable rare technical exclamation point of a daily gapped higher high valuation over the 6 November 2024 valuation and ending near the high of the day.

The previous posting reviewed the two self-assembly simple fractal mathematical laws of the asset-debt macroeconomic system providing the characteristics of a patterned science.

7 November 2024 was analogous to 3 Sept 1929 which was part of a 27 day second fractal of a 9 Aug to 13 Nov 1929 13/27/60 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase decay fractal series.

In the previous two postings, prior proposed models for the 31 October 2024 decay series have been a 5/10/10 day and a 5/10/11 day 3-phase fractal decay series ending on 1 December and 2 December respectively.

However, a perfect 0.36 proportionality fit would be a 31 October 5/10/11.5 day 3-phase fractal decay series ending 3 December 2024 with a crash low on 3 December and a possible reversal from the low the same day, starting the next growth fractal.

Review of the Origin of the 0.36 Ratio

The US Hegemonic asset debt system is (appear to be) undergoing an 1807 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year deterministic growth and decay 4 phase fractal series. The 36 year first fractal ended in 1842-32. The 90 year second fractal ended in 1932 (8 July 1932). The 90 year third fractal peak occurred on 8 Nov 2021 and was composed of a 1932 10-11/21-22/21-22 year :: x/2x/2x fractal growth series ending in 1982 and a subsequent interpolated 13/32/32-33/19-20 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4 phase fractal series expected to end in about 2074.

The 0.36 ratio is determined by length of the 13 year 1982 to 1994 first fractal of the 1982 to 2025 13/32 year first and second series divided by the 36 year length of the 1807 to 1842-43 first fractal of the 1807 36/90 year first and second fractal series ending in 1932.

The DJIA valuation peak for 90 year 1842-43 second fractal occurred on 3 Sept 1929. The was the 87th year of the 90 year second fractal representing a time length ratio of 87/90 or 0.9666. The expected year peak for a 32 year second fractal (1994 to 2025) would be 32 times .9666 or 30.9 years consistent with the 7 November 2024 high.

The 9 Aug to 13 Nov 1929 incipient 3 phase decay series was a 13/27/30 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3 phase fractal decay series containing the 3 Sept 1929 high in the 27 day second fractal. This was 68 days in length. 0.36 x 68 days is equivalent to 24.5 days which would be consistent with a 31 October 2024 5/10/12 day 3-phase decay series ending 3 December with a possible growth reversal on 3 December after the nadir of the day and where the second 10 day fractal contained the 7 November 2024 all-time higher high gapped peak.

The observed 3 Sept 1929 to 8 July 1932 peak to nadir 35 month time length times 0.36 yields a value of 12.6 months which would place a nadir in October-November 2025.

All global equities, commodities, and crypto valuations will crash in the 31 October to 3 December 2024 5/10/12 day fractal decay series. Bad debt is denominated in currency and noncurrency overvalued assets will undergo liquidation to begin to re-balance that bad debt. Sovereign debt valuation will increase as money flows from these assets into sovereign debt and lowers interest rates.

The fractal growth and decay of the recently reviewed Shanghai property index, which a the proxy for the 50-60 trillion dollar equivalent, grossly overproduced, overvalued, and citizen over-owned wealth receptacle is shown below. The coming deflationary scenario for the Chinese asset-debt economy is likely the worse for all advanced economies.

Gold and Gold mining stock fractal series are shown below with expected nadirs on 3 December.

Finally a 25 October 2024 6/10 of 12/12 day 3 phase decay fractal series ending 3 December 2024 is shown below for the NIKKEI.

Crypto-currencies will likely follow a 4 November 2024 4/7 of 9/7/6 day 4 phase fractal series ending 3 December, where the final crash will occur in the final 6 day 4th fractal.

Crypto-currencies will likely follow a 4 November 2024 4/7 of 9/7/6 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x’/ 1.5x 4-phase fractal series ending 3 December, where the final crash will likely occur in the final 6 day 4th fractal.