A 4/24/2023 22 Trading Day 50 Percent Nonlinear Decline in Global Composite Equity Valuations


There is a mathematical fractal case for an interpolated 1981-82 13/30 year first 13 year base fractal and 30 year second fractal major terminal nonlinearity. This interpolated series is contained within a larger US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series with lows in 1807, 1842-43, 1932, and 2074 and a 90 year third fractal high in November 2021.

Both the French CAC and Wilshire are following a x/2.5x/2x/1.5x :: 15/37/30/22 day fractal series starting 12/30/2022 and 12/28/2022 (trading holidays account for the difference of starting dates.) The CAC reached its all time average day valuation high on 4/24/2023, day 30 of the series’ third fractal. The Wilshire’s valuation peaked earlier on 8 November 2021. Both composites are following a March 2020 low 33/66/66-67 week :: x/2x/2x high/lower high valuations. From its 4/24 peak valuation the 22 day 4th decay fractal appears to a 4/21/2023 4/9/7/6 day series with the Wilshire a trading day ahead of the CAC. The Wilshire is currently on day 7 and CAC currently on day 6 of the 9 day second fractal. The 7 day third fractal can be expected to be a valuation increase lateral and upward. The final 6 days would be trade nonlinearly lower with some short counter rallies.

From 1981 to 1993 there is a 10/26/16 quarter first base fractal series totaling 50 quarters. (the 1987 crash was quarter 11, the end of a second sub-fractal of a 26 quarter 5/11/12 quarter series)The 30 year second fractal is composed of 4 sub-series:
1994-2002: 34 quarters: 3/8/6/4 (18) and 3/8/8 (17)
2002-2009: 27 quarters: 3/7/8 (16) and 2/5/5/3 (12)
2009-2016: 29 quarters: 2/5/4/3(11) {(6) composed of a 3/6/8 month fractal series)} and 3/7/6 (14)
2016 to 2024 32 quarters: 4/8/6 (16) 3/7/6/?4 (17)

The total quarters for the first and second fractals are currently 50/116 pacing the timing between 2x and 2.5x (100 and 125) of the second fractal, where terminal nonlinearity could result in 50 percent valuation losses with a lower low valuation in 4 quarters (2024).

This quantitative asset-debt system mathematical fractal model has the appeal of internal consistency.

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