Deterministic Global Asset Debt Saturation Macroeconomics:  The US Hegemonic 1877 144 Year  Nonlinear Second Great Fractal Collapse : From the March 2020 Valuation Low: Two Self Organizing Fractal Series: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x (x = 12 days) and y/2y-2.5y/2y-2.5y (y = 16 days)

Over the Next 7-9 Trading Days Expected is a Nonlinear Equity and Commodity historical 144 year US Hegemonic Second Fractal Valuation Collapse 

From  the 2009 https//

July 2005 Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics – A New Science



And from The Economic Fractalist  Website:

The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves.  

 G. Lammert

 This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .

The Asset Debt Global Macroeconomy growth and decay of it’s debt dependent assets and those asset valuations are deterministic and self assembly into highly regular fractal units and patterns – just as galaxies, stars, and planets fractally self-assemble from the gravitational forces on massive clouds of precursor hydrogen gas.

Fractals are interpolated units and confluent occurences – one cycle merges with the next. 

Rather the previously described (18)36/90/89 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x three phase fractal series model; an alternate grouping is observable. That alternative interpolated grouping is a 1790 18 year initiating fractal  followed by two 36 year sequential sub-fractals composing a 71 year Great First Fractal base. The US Second Great Fractal consists of two sub-fractals of 56  and 89 years respectively  for a current Great Second Fractal  total length of 144 years.  More simply  from 1807,  a First and Second Great Fractal  series of 71 and 144 years  :: (x/2-2.5x) are observable  with the first 71 year Grand Fractal defining itself with the equity market valuation low bottoming  in 1877. 

Again from the observed economic nadir activity in 1877, this 71 year (x) First Great Fractal and the current (2-2.5x) Second Great  Fractal form an 1807 two phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x, with an expected great nonlinear collapse defining the Second Great Fractal as per the main page of this website. This  makes empirical sense and is at least as probable as the 1807 three phase series:  36/90/89 year ::x/2.5x/2.5x fractal model previously identified. 

The United States’ Asset-Debt Macroeconomic cyclical history since 1790:  A Brief Summary.

After a 1790 US  initiating fractal of 18 years ending in the panic of 1807,  two sequential 36 year US sub-fractal  cycles  self-assembled. The first 36 year cycle was caused by over investment  and speculation in land acquired by Jefferson’s 1803 Louisiana purchase. Individual state and  bank local money creation and over-investment  peaked  and collapsed in the panic of 1837 with an economic/commodity  nadir in 1842.   The second 36 year cycle  was caused by US railroad over-investment and speculation with global financial involvement  which peaked with gross overbuilding  and collapsed in the panic of 1873 with a nadir in stock valuations in 1877.

The panic of 1873 was a world wide event resulting in US depression level unemployment rates of 14% in the US and nearly 25% in New York City. Before the great depression of the 1930’s,  the decade after the panic of 1873 was known as America’s first great depression.

America’s  Second Great Fractal started at the nadir in 1877. The US Second Great Fractal is composed of two sub-fractals: a 56 year first sub-fractal with a nadir market valuation in 1932, and a 89 year current second sub-fractal.

The first 56 year subfractal asset debt macroeconomic peak valuation occurred in 1929 and nadired in 1932. The mass production of cars, radios, home appliances, easy credit expansion, and ten percent marginal position fueled the valuation peak. 

The second sub-fractal series starting in 1932 is composed of two further sub-fractals: a  51 year 10-11/21-22/21-22 (x/2x/2x) year sub-fractal ending in 1982 and the current 1982-2020 9/20/12  (x/2-2.5x/1.5X’) 39 year sub-fractal.   [X’ = 1.5 times {the length  of observed 2-2.5x second fractal cycle(20 years) divided by 2.5}]

The first 1932 to 1982 51 year sub-fractal was fueled by  ‘over-investment’ in World War II, post war Marshall plan spending, continued  US military industrial complex cold war spending, and new technologies, principally, the transistor.

The second 1982-2020  second sub-fractal  was fueled by 38 years of continuously and substantially falling US and global sovereign debt interest rates; derivative debt instrument creation; 1980’s and 1990’s new microchip, cable technologies and internet companies bubble; a historical foundational consumer 2008 property bubble with gross fraudulent property assessments and new financial debt instrument bundling, the emergence of China as the world’s dominant manufacturer with acceptance of other country’s sovereign debt for Chinese  products; transoceanic shipping;  the emergence of the Euro with  underwriting both good and very bad Euro projects; and the necessary global  deficit spending, money creation, quantitative easing, and zero rate interest policies associated with the 2008-2009 housing collapse; with the 2019-2020 corporate debt collapse, and with the current COVID’s global  stimulus  plans. 

The  January thru March 2020 global equity valuation collapse occurred in an easily recognizable quantitative fractal decay manner: 6/15/16 days  :: y/2.5y/2.5y.

3 trillion dollars in US COVID stimulus deficit spending and near zero rates  with some sovereigns offering negative rates  have caused another self assembly deterministic fractal equity valuation bubble growth rise from the March 2020 lows.

Tesla at a recent peak PE ratio of over 1100 provides a scope of the  magnitude of the current bubble valuations. 

From the March 2020 low the  current fractal growth progression as of 1 Nov 2020  is composed of two fractal series: 

Two Fractal Series: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x (x = 12 days) and y/2y-2.5y/2y-2.5y with (y = 16 days).

A nonlinear equity and commodity historical 144 year Second Fractal valuation collapse over the next 7-9 trading is expected. 

Leave a Reply