**Saturation Asset-Valuation/Debt-Load Deterministic Self-Assembly Macroeconomics**

From the March 2020 SPX nadir valuation:

38/93/56 days :: 9/20/12 years (x/2-2.5x(x’)/1.5x’ )

38 days 8/16/16 days

93 days 7/16/11 and 11/28/25 days

56 days 9/19/18/13. days

From the 2009 https//theeconomicfractalist.blogspot.com

## July 2005 Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics – A New Science

LAMMERT NONSTOCHASTIC SATURATION MACROECONOMICS

THIS BLOG EXPLORES THE NEW SCIENCE OF NONSTOCHASTIC SATURATION MACROECONOMICS, A MAJOR OBSERVATIONAL DISCOVERY. THE MACROECOMONY IS A SELF BALANCING COMPLEX SYSTEM OF ASSETS AND DEBT OPERATING ACCORDING TO SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL LAWS OF GROWTH AND DECAY OF ITS ASSET VALUATION CURVES:: X/2.5X/2X/1.5X AND Y/2-2.5Y/1.5-2.5Y

And from The Economic Fractalist Website:

**The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. **

** G. Lammert**

This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .

The Asset Debt Global Macroeconomy growth and decay of it’s debt dependent assets and those asset valuations are deterministic and self assembly into highly regular fractal units and patterns – just as galaxies, stars, and planets fractally self-assemble from the gravitational forces on massive clouds of precursor hydrogen gas.

Fractals are interpolated units and confluent occurences – one cycle merges with the next.

Rather the previously described (18)36/90/89 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x three phase fractal series model; an alternate grouping is observable. That alternative interpolated grouping is a 1790 18 year initiating fractal followed by two 36 year sequential sub-fractals composing a 71 year Great First Fractal base. The US Second Great Fractal consists of two sub-fractals of 56 and 89 years respectively for a current Great Second Fractal total length of 144 years. More simply from 1807, a First and Second Great Fractal series of 71 and 144 years :: (x/2-2.5x) are observable with the first 71 year Grand Fractal defining itself with the equity market valuation low bottoming in 1877.

Again from the observed economic nadir activity in 1877, this 71 year (x) First Great Fractal and the current (2-2.5x) Second Great Fractal form an 1807 two phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x, with an expected great nonlinear collapse defining the Second Great Fractal as per the main page of this website. This makes empirical sense and is at least as probable as the 1807 three phase series: 36/90/89 year ::x/2.5x/2.5x fractal model previously identified.

**The United States’ Asset-Debt Macroeconomic cyclical history since 1790: A Brief Summary.**

After a 1790 US initiating fractal of 18 years ending in the panic of 1807, two sequential 36 year US sub-fractal cycles self-assembled. The first 36 year cycle was caused by over investment and speculation in land acquired by Jefferson’s 1803 Louisiana purchase. Individual state and bank local money creation and over-investment peaked and collapsed in the panic of 1837 with an economic/commodity nadir in 1842. The second 36 year cycle was caused by US railroad over-investment and speculation with global financial involvement which peaked with gross overbuilding and collapsed in the panic of 1873 with a nadir in stock valuations in 1877.

The panic of 1873 was a world wide event resulting in US depression level unemployment rates of 14% in the US and nearly 25% in New York City. Before the great depression of the 1930’s, the decade after the panic of 1873 was known as America’s first great depression.

America’s Second Great Fractal started at the nadir in 1877. The US Second Great Fractal is composed of two sub-fractals: a 56 year first sub-fractal with a nadir market valuation in 1932, and a 89 year current second sub-fractal.

The first 56 year subfractal asset debt macroeconomic peak valuation occurred in 1929 and nadired in 1932. The mass production of cars, radios, home appliances, easy credit expansion, and ten percent marginal position fueled the valuation peak.

The second sub-fractal series starting in 1932 is composed of two further sub-fractals: a 51 year 10-11/21-22/21-22 (x/2x/2x) year sub-fractal ending in 1982 and the current 1982-2020 9/20/12 (x/2-2.5x/1.5X’) 39 year sub-fractal. [X’ = 1.5 times {the length of observed 2-2.5x second fractal cycle(20 years) divided by 2.5}]

The first 1932 to 1982 51 year sub-fractal was fueled by ‘over-investment’ in World War II, post war Marshall plan spending, continued US military industrial complex cold war spending, and new technologies, principally, the transistor.

The second 1982-2020 second sub-fractal was fueled by 38 years of continuously and substantially falling US and global sovereign debt interest rates; derivative debt instrument creation; 1980’s and 1990’s new microchip, cable technologies and internet companies bubble; a historical foundational consumer 2008 property bubble with gross fraudulent property assessments and new financial debt instrument bundling, the emergence of China as the world’s dominant manufacturer with acceptance of other country’s sovereign debt for Chinese products; transoceanic shipping; the emergence of the Euro with underwriting both good and very bad Euro projects; and the necessary global deficit spending, money creation, quantitative easing, and zero rate interest policies associated with the 2008-2009 housing collapse; with the 2019-2020 corporate debt collapse, and with the current COVID’s global stimulus plans.

The January thru March 2020 global equity valuation collapse occurred in an easily recognizable quantitative fractal decay manner: 6/15/16 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y.

3 trillion dollars in US COVID stimulus deficit spending and near zero rates with some sovereigns offering negative rates have caused another self assembly deterministic fractal equity valuation bubble growth rise from the March 2020 lows.

Tesla at a recent peak PE ratio of over 1100 provides a scope of the magnitude of the current bubble valuations.

From the March 2020 SPX nadir valuation:

38/93/56 days :: 9/20/12 years (x/2-2.5x(x’)/1.5x’ )

38 days 8/16/16 days (9 weeks)

93 days 7/16/11 and 11/28/25 days (20 weeks)

56 days 9/19/18/13. days (12 weeks)

The Great US 144 Year 1877 Second Fractal Nonlinear Crash Devaluation

Negative Interest rates for Western sovereign long term bonds will be the norm after the week of 14 December 2020. They must be. There is no other mathematical way to pay the interest on the accumulated debt and to pay for accumulated social obligation payments of the last 90 years. German long term bonds, the marker of the worth of the Euro system, have recurrently (and in a fractal manner) visited negative returns since August 2019. 30 year German bonds will provide greater than negative 1 percent returns over the next three trading days. Importantly, the negative German sovereign long term rates in August 2019 predated the arrival of covid and exactly reflected (reflects) the accumulated unrepayable bad debt of the Euro currency system.

Current (and future) bubble valuations of the global equity and commodity indices are a direct function of these negative Euro (and currently low US interest) rates. With negative sovereign returns, money is preferentially funneled into financial assets. Those currently with capital and access to borrowing at negative returns – the banks, the connected, and the wealthy – are and will be even more so (inappropriately) advantaged in the future, over the non-connected working class.

What will the global new system of established sovereign negative interest rates and necessary central bank-politician driven inflationary financialization of assets bring to real operating working-class base economy?

The disparity and divide between that working class and the first money use advantaged class of the nonworking wealthy, the connected, and the banks will exponentialize in the follow-on 90-140 year US Third Fractal.

Even in the current environment of extremely low or negative interest rates and the borrowing of 30+ percent of the national GDP to maintain the priming of the pump during covid, a saturation of equity and commodity valuations must occur. The deterministic timing occurs at the end of the 1877 144 year US Second Fractal.

Since the low in March 2020, bubble financialization of assets have occurred in the disparate real environment of sharply contracting Western economies and GDP’s.

144 year UC Second fractal nonlinearity will occur.

All global indices are at the same maximum valuation saturation at the nonlinear very edge of the very great US 144 year Second Fractal ledge.

Using the French CAC as a proxy: From the March 2020 lows:

12/27/24/19 days :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x

17/40/34/ 23 of 26 days :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x

The March 2020 terminal weekly fractal pattern of 9/20/12 of 13 weeks is self similar to the terminal 1982 9/20/12 yearly fractal series, a fractal subsection of the 1877 144 year US Second Fractal previously described.