The Patterned Science of Asset-Dedt Saturation Macroeconomics: Incipient 54 year US Hegemony Fourth Fractal Nonlinear Collapse: The Great Global Equity and Commodity Crash Ending Mid October 2022

From the Global Equity March low in 2020, the concluding cycle fractal pattern is 5/13/10/7 months :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x. The  terminal 7 months are composed of a 5/12-13/12-13 week :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal series.

On 8 November 2021, the composite US Wilshire reached its current peak valuation of nearly 49 trillion dollars (48 trillion, 952 billion, 510 million dollars). On that date 8 November 2021, the deterministic Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic Self-Assembly and Self-Balancing System  reached its maximum time based x/2.5x/2.5x multi-year maximum fractal growth pattern for the global system’s current US hegemony dating from 1807 of 36/90/90 years with a US Great Second Fractal 90 year low in mid 1932. The US Louisiana purchase property bubble peaked  and collapsed with the US Panic of 1837, concluded  with the system’s nadir of commodity price valuations in 1842/43, and ended the US First Great Fractal starting in 1807.  The US Fourth Great Fractal of expected 1.5x length or 54 years started at the US Great 90 YearThird Fractal’s peak in November 2021 and  is expected to conclude in 2074.  Since 2009 the Global Asset-Debt System’s unbalanced debt and social contract obligations have required both money creation and near zero  prime interest rates to sustain the system’s social and debt obligations. The principal future countervailing elements  for the necessary  default continuation of the Asset-Debt System  to offset existing debt and social obligations are 1. rising US property valuations which have proven to be easily inflated with financial engineering (2002-2008), historically low interest rates (2009-2021) , and outright money creation (2009-2021), 2. these future rising property valuations will be offset by commodity inflation caused by that financial manipu;ation and by ending global energy and commodity resources, 3. these dwindling finite commodities will be  offset by biotech and genetic engineering and   innovation and hopefully thorium and other fission nuclear reactors capable of producing carbonless energy, and 4. an unstable collective enforcement under the umbrella of continued nuclear weapon production with advanced delivery technology. For humanity this  is a scary, tenuous next half-of-a-century US Fourth  Fractal future with significant base population social and economic stress. The  development of non=democratic autocratic governments  in the West, in Japan, and in India is a likely political outcome of the US 54 year Fourth Great Fractal of the  Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomy.

There is an interlinked symbosis between Central Banks who have an obligation to control inflation for the world base population and the natural self=balancing mechanics of the global Asset-Debt system. Bitcoin in USD which represents the new most efficient transactional contract for the users of the asset-debt global system and is at 27/65 of 68 months first and second fractal sequence … This current natural progression is in the context of the United States 1807 great fractal cycle of 36/90/90/54 year cycle ending in 2074.

On 5 Nov 2021 The US Composite Wilshire peaked at 48809.39 trillion dollars. This was the 90th year of a US Great 90 year Third Fractal starting in 1932 and completing a 1807 maximum 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x self-assembly asset-debt macroeconomic fractal growth series. Since 1982 higher high equities valuations have been propelled by cascading lower interest rates and since 2008, by near zero prime rates and outright central bank money creation to monetize the 2005-2008 toxic-asset-debt bubble and to later monetize the 15-20 % unemployment rate created by the pandemic.

Global central banks’ policies have averted a 1930’s type of depression. Since 2020 too low of interest rates associated with mortgage backed securities for too long of time have created Western property and equity super bubbles with 30-40% housing appreciation over two year’s time, transient dr/dt record growth of equity valuations, and ongoing continuing higher and higher commodity inflation with a 60 percent relative divergence of lower equity prices and higher commodity prices since the November 2021 Wilshire high. The higher commodity prices are impactful and have left the majority of consumers on the thinest of viabilty edges. And in principally consumer-based economies, this inflation is resticting purchases and resulting in lower company profit margins and relatively high inventories – the opposite of what is expected in a supply-line limited system. In response to the historical increases in consumer inflation central banks have allowed market-based increases in interest rates of sovereign debt instruments which have far outpaced the central bank prime rate increases. The former rate increases have resulted in 30 year mortgages rates above peak rates for the last 12 years. These rates have reduced the population capable of buying an availble over-priced house to a historically small proportion.

Western countries are faced with the dual prospects of increasing commodity inflation and 15-20 trillion losses in equities. Increasing energy cost and grain shortages secondary to Russia’s illegal action will continue global inflationary pressures.

China, the world’s new manufacturing Hegemony, has unstable and mighty fraility in its 1989-equivalent Japan-like property supper bubble with a 40 times asset valuation to annual income ratio.

Evergrande’s valuation collapse and the Bank of Shanghai valuation collapse are congruent. Expect a transient nonlinear decline for a global equities and commodities at the x/2.5x :: March 2020 33/83 week first and second fractal time units.

Next: Ark Restaurant: A microcosm of America’s service- sector- dependent Asset-Debt Macroeconomic Asset-Debt System

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