The idea construct for the theory of saturation macroeconomics is occam’s razor simplistic, money under the given central bank expanding and contracting money supply conditions both  via fractional reserve banking and since 2009  QE/QT expansion/constraints … flows to the maximum extent  into the most advantaged and leveraged asset classes, that is, the equity and property markets. The progression to  the maximal extent and peak valuation and subsequent nonlinear terminal nadir values is fractally time  based  and in accordance with two eloquently simple 3 and 4 phase time based sequences :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and x/2-2.5x/1.5x-2.5x. 

For the US hegemony the overall long term sequence is a 4 phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal pattern starting in 1807 and consisting of 36/90/90/54 years with a first fractal equity valuation low in 1842/43, a second fractal low in 1932,  a third fractal 90 year  high in November 2021, with an expected fourth fractal low in 2074.

From the property bubble low in March 2009, US equities have followed a 5/13/10/7 month pattern (x/2.5x/2x/1.5x); followed by a 3/7/6 month pattern (x/2-2.5x/2x); followed by a 8/17/17 month pattern (x/2x/2x), followed by a 10/26/16 month pattern( x/2.5x/1.5x) and finally a 8/18/11 of 12 month pattern (x/2.5x/1.5x), the the latest fractal sequence starting with both unprecedented money expansion and thereafter money contraction in response to, respectively, the Covid pandemic and resulting consumer commodity and price inflation secondary to  extraordinary money expansion.

The daily market valuations represent the real status of saturation investment under the changing central bank lending parameters. Does the real market valuation progression data fit an occam razor’s theoretical mathematical fractal constructs? 

From the 22 November 2021 secondary Wilshire peak and Nasdaq key reversal valuation day peak 43 days (7/14/14/11)/ 101 days/102 days/ 52 of 62-63 days (x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x).

Expect nonlinear lower low valuation declines over the next ten trading days

The final 32 weeks for Nasdaq is composed of a 21/53/55/31-32 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series. The final 31 days are composed of a 13 December 2022 5/12/10/2 0f 7-8 day fractal series.

Friday 13 January 2023 ; The Nonlinear Global Nadar Valuation. (Nikkei 21/53/42/30 Day x/2.5x/2x/1.5x Fractal)

Does the global Asset-Debt Macroeconomy self Organize into defined time-based fractal patterns under the conditions set by central banks and more recently consumer inflation?

That is the question this blog has attempted to answer. Do the two simple time-based fractal patterns: a 4-phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/(peak)/1.4-1.6 x pattern and a three phase x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x pattern define the math of an asset-debt self-assembly system with mathematical self-organizing characteristics similar to astrophysics, physics, chemistry,  biochemistry, and hence biology?

Certainly the US 1807 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x pattern ending with an 8 November 2021 high for the composite Wllshire and bitcoin in the 90th year third fractal fit three elements of the four element four phase pattern with lows in 1842-3 and 1932.

From 1932 to 1982 a x/2x/2x pattern is observable of10-11/21/21 years. Since 1982 a 13/28 year pattern is observable.

The  monthly self-assembly fractal groupings for US equities since the massive 2009 QE programs have been:

5/13/10/7 months :: a x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal pattern

3/7/7 months and 8/17/17 months both x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal patterns

10-11/26/16 months: a  x/2-2.5x/1.5x fractal pattern

and starting in March 2020. 8/17/11 of 12 months :: a x/2-2.5x/1.5x fractal pattern

After the pandemic start and a 6/15/15 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x crash devaluation nadiring in March 2020, global central banks and governments have created a short lived  super bubble involving real estate, equities, commodities, and used cars. 40 year high consumer inflation provided the feedback control measure on western central banks who have ramped up interest rates in a historical accelerated fashion with absolute levels not seen since 2007.  Qualitatively the crash in equities and commodities will later be explained by the interest rate increases and  the unmanageable debt burden on heavily indebted individuals, corporations, and sovereigns impacted by those increases. 

The Nikkei with Japan’s high total debt to GDP ratio is the best proxy for the asset-debt system and its self-organizing fractals.

The monthly/weekly, and daily self-assembly fractals for Japan’s Nikkei since March 2020 are:

Monthly: 8/17/11 of 12 months

Weekly: 33/72/42 of 45 weeks (72 week low 8 March 2022) :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x

Daily: the final 42 of 45 weeks:

    13/30/28 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x and 

     {(2)/5/10/7 =21}/53/42/30 days ::  x/2.5x/2x/1.5x

 The final 30 days from day 42 the secondary peak on 30 Nov2022 is a (2)/5 /12 of 13/13 days with a nonlinear nadir low ending on Friday 13 January 2023.