The current fractal Macroeconomic model to the October 2023 low is

an 18 August 2023 6/15/13/10 day 4 phase :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.6 x fractal series ending on October 16 2023. This a smaller interpolated fractal series is a terminal component of a large March 2020 8/20/18/12 month series ending in September 2024.

Two solid (absolutely no sarcasm intended) US  Republican citizen representatives, serving as senior leadership on the House Ways and Means committee) recently   presented a solid Ron Paul, Ross Perot-like sobering mathematical argument (below) against the sustainability  of America’s spending, obligations, verses its tax revenue numbers with the social security trust fund going bust in 2033. What they said within the context of a family or a business’s budget analogy was unequivocably true, but isn’t the  real state of affairs of the US asset-debt macroeconomic system within the context of the larger global system. Nobel prize winners like Paul Krugman and Milton Friedman understand (understood) the ‘real’ math of the asset debt macroeconomic system, whose basis, by customary nomenclature is indeed fraudulent.

The bottom line in the big picture – of the 1807 36/90/90/54  year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x  (November 8/2021 Wilshire inflation adjusted third subfractal 90 year valuation high) US hegemonic Lammert (longwave)  Great Fractal Series – is that the US Federal Reserve {backed by the hopefully reliable US nuclear deliverable arsenal} acts exactly like a Parker Brother’s friendly Monopoly game personal  banker.  When a player loses the game and goes bankrupt, the friendly personal banker  in this sovereign Monopoly game can magically extend a loan (from its own ex nihilo persona) to the loser player to continue playing … 

This has already happened in Japan with currently a debt to GDP ratio of 240% with an annual  tax-dependent federal spending to debt ratio of about about 20 % (like the US’s ratio). The Bank of Japan (Fed equivalent) holds most of Japan’s debt.

Debt creation and debt burden happens more easily with near zero to negative interest rates on sovereign debt as has happened during recessions since 2009. More recessions can be expected – but not as severe as 1929-1932 when the symbiotic government-central bank printing press was not nearly as well oiled).

Last week completed a 9/22/18 week :: x/2-5x/2x 3 phase growth fractal series for the Shanghai Composite, exactly matching the Shanghai Property index: 9/21/18 weeks :: x/2-2.5x/2x. For the Shanghai property series this is subfractal 3 of a 5/12/12 of 13 month or a 5/12/10/3 of 7 month series. The Shanghai composite is following a March 2020 monthly 8/19/18 of 19-20 three phase fractal series or a 8/19/16/3 of 12 monthly four phase fractal series.

The March 2020 Shanghai Composite monthly fractal series matches numerically the Wilshire composite’s,

Both composites have a 2/4/4 or 8 month subfractal 1 base.

Subfractal 2 of 19 months for the Shanghai consists of two series: a 2/5/5 monthly series followed by a 2/4/4/3 monthly series. The Wilshire composite’s19 month subfractal 2 consists of a 4/9/10 month fractal series.

Subfractal 3 for the Wilshire consists of a reflexive decay and growth series 2/5/5/3 series and ends at month 16 with two weekly growth series a 2/5/5/3 weeks series [[12 weeks]] followed by a 2/5/5 week series (10 weeks).

An interpolated fractal series of [[12]]/28-30/28-30 weeks would complete a March 2020 8/19/16/12 month fractal series.

The global asset valuation collapse (including real estate prices)- propelled to extreme valuation heights by historical increases in liquidity, money expansion, and personal, corporate, and governmental debt expansion via low interest rate easy credit and central bank augmented residential and corporate loans – will take the Wilshire and SPX back to their 31 year 1993-4 to 2023-2025 trend line of a 1981-1982 subfractal one (13 years) and subfractal two (31 year) series.

Monthly September 2014 Bitcoin Fractal Series and Recent 9 March 2020 Monthly Ten Year Note Fractal series in the Asset Debt QE/QT 21st Century Macroeconomic System and in the Longer US Hegemony 19th century 1807 36/90/90/54 Year 4 Phase Lammert Fractal Series.

I. Current Monthly Model for the Wilshire March 2020 low fractal series: 8/20/16/12 months :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x.

II. For System Simple Fractal laws, see 31 August 2023 section on A Primer on Fractal Series.

The Wilshire 13 August 2023 52/130/130 day fractal series mathematical model still holds with an 18 August 2023 6/15/4 of 15 day low on 5 October 2023 and further low near the end of November 2023 completing the 130 day subfractal 2.

Ten Year Note interest rates likely reached a peak yesterday rising from 0.4 % on 9 March 2020 to 4.62 % on 19 Sept 2023, a relative increase of 1150 %. From the 9 March 2020 low the ten year note followed a 7/16/17 month fractal growth series followed by a 5/11/10 week fractal growth series of 21/52/44 days.

Money exiting from stocks will drive interest rates lower.

Bitcoin in USD, traded 7 days a week, is following a 17 August 5/11/11 day fractal series followed by a 10 September 5/5 of 11/11 day series ending on 5 October.

The long term Bitcoin in USD monthly fractal series starting in Sept 2014 began as a complex initiating fractal series of (2)/4/8/6 months ending in January 2016. Why initiating? The trading market was just beginning with the Jan 2016 low valuation was below the initial Sept 2014 low. The last 6 months of this complex 17 month series served as an initiating base fractal (6 months) for a 15 month subfractal 1 of a 15/37/33 month series ending in November 2022. A 22 month lower low would complete a 15/37/33/22 month 4 phase fractal series.
For the 22 months a November 2022 3/6/4 of 6 month series ending in November 2023 could be followed by a 2/5/5 month series ending in August 2024 to complete a self-assembled four phase Jan 2016 15/37/33/22 month :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x fractal series.

With residential and equity assets inflated and with easy loose money lending created by a 380%-460% one year M1 money supply increase from Feb 2020 to April 2021, a very hard deleveraging landing is expected with the completion of an composite equity 12/1981 to 8/2024 13/32 year :: x/2-2.5x subfractal 1 and subfractal 2 fractal series and an expected 32 year subfractal 2 trend line low valuation of 750 to 800 value on the SPX.