The Human Linear Reasoning Fallacy Of Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc …

An equity/commodity crash devolution occurs; the linear thinking masses attribute it to the US election results.

The 6 November US general election’s remarkable timing to the quadrillion dollar valued Global Asset Debt Macroeconomic System’s deterministic  final lower high valuation rapidly followed  by a nonlinear historical devolution is coincidental: true true and unrelated.

Survey the US measurable asset valuation saturation curves dating from 1788.

What political events, what wartime events are responsible for the periodicity of the equity and progenitor asset valuation saturation curves and the regular nonlinearities of asset valuation collapse?.

225 years of  Gompertz-like asset valuation saturation growth curves to peak valuation levels and their regular periodic  nonlinear asset valuation devolutions with slowing Gompertz-like devaluations to an asymptotic low levels are the result of  accumulation of bad debt creation via associated (bad)  easy lending rules getting ahead of the real economy’s ability to honor bad debt, that which can  not be repaid,  in conjunction with a system saturated and depleted  population of credit worthy new debtors associated with the timing of system accumulation of overproduced and over abundant and collapsing asset valuation collateral that occurs in an accelerating manner after the peaks of the bad debt credit cycles.

Gompertz-like asset devaluations and their asymptotic lows are associated with bad debt liquidation and system wide lower total valuation until prices match demand and remaining system money and credit creation.

What is remarkable is that the regular quantum periodicity of the cycles confer upon the Asset Debt Macroeconomic System the predictabilty and patterned properties of an Exact science.

Good credit creation and good lending  rules lead to good results and promote system stability with less profound effects on the real economy during natural nonlinear periodic asset valuations devolutions.

On the other hand,  bad credit creation and bad lending rules lead to asset production and asset pricing distortions in the real economy.

Money manipulation, uncontrolled by Sovereign good rules, whereby money and credit is miscreated by counterparty mirroring leads to system-valueless profiting by those who can and do create the bad rules. The real economic system distortion caused by the scamming the Sovereign’s money system, the Elitist  use of the Sovereign’s currency, and the Elitist entitlement to borrow at lower  interest rates and more accessible credit line and leverage profits from the resulting  asset valuation rise and fall in prices –  without regards to societal useful or real economic system useful end results causes – directly the extreme distortions and asset bubbles that result in exponentially leveraged damage during the natural perodicity of the Asset-Debt System’s inherent nonlinearities in Asset-Debt System saturation time areas resulting in inevitable and necessary asset valuation collapse.

But for the masses, the winners of the 6 November 2012 election will likely be held accountable for the Asset-Debt System’s natural nonlinearity via the post hoc ergo propter hoc programmed human neural networks of linear thought.

Global Debt which cannot be repaid on the the basis of new demand and related jobs in an asset over-produced  and over-valued  saturated macroeconomy – will inevitably undergo default.

All assets are dependent on this bad debt for part of their valuation. Growth and decay of asset valuations within the self balancing asset-debt system undergo quantum time based growth and quantum time based decay.

The asset debt macroeconomic system made its  transitional peak valuation day on 14 September 2012, the Wilshire’s secondary peak to its nominal high on 11 October 2007.

The Wilshire’s secondary high on 14 September 2012 was supported by competing US sovereign Ten Year Notes 280 basis point below those associated with the 11 October 2007 nominal high.

The Wilshire, representing only 15 trillion of the  Global Asset Debt Macroeconomy’s   1000 trillion total wealth is an accurate proxy for the Total System in terms of directional asset valuation growth or directional asset decay.

13 September vice 14 September 2012 was prospectively picked as the Wilshire’s final high based on the Asset-Debt system’s countervailing asset : sovereign long term US Ten Year Note  debt and its recurrent fractal x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x growth pattern since the early 1980’s.

14 September was in fact an exact x/2.5x/1.5x pattern of 4/10/6 days.

Intuitively, continuous growth in valuation of Hegemonic US Sovereign Debt (lower and lower trending interest rates and higher and higher trending valuations for US held bonds and US debt futures) is a natural occurrence  as the Asset-Debt System’s total  bad debt load becomes greater and greater.

This bad debt load which will not be repaid has been previously borrowed and spent in over producing assets such as real estate and causing overvaluation of existing assets. As well the facilitated creation of bad debt temporarily produces more demand and  wage earners than the system would produce if more prudent 1930’s global rules were in place with regards to debt creation and speculation.

The temporary wage earners then become a targeted albeit temporary  population of new borrowers – new borrowers in an excessively debt leveraged temporary economy with long term debt.

The system is inherently unstable because it is the primary business of the  international  Financial Industry to compete with each other for the population of debtors and to accumulate the maximum number and market share  of counter party borrowers.

As the bad debt load of the system increases over time, Hegemonic US Sovereign Held  Debt, which carries a 100 percent guarantee of repayment, increases in value with lower and  lower interest rates

This is the end of a great US bad debt credit cycle starting in 1858. The time dependent evolution of the  asset-debt system’s asset valuations are dependent in part upon the presumed value of the underlying bad debt load. Eventually with a slowing real economy and fewer wage dollars to support the bad debt load,   incipient net default occurs where net credit expansion slows, reaches a critical zero velocity level, and thereafter contracts in an accelerating nonlinear fashion.

While this growing level of default of bad debt is either not accurately measurable or is  but not well reported, the system’s proxy’s marker’s such as the world equities composite values, CRB,  XAU, and TNX provide the integrated asset debt system’s summary data in the daily valuation band valuations and more exactly in their deterministic quantum self assembly fractal growth and decay patterns over their daily, weekly, and monthly self-assembly evolving fractal patterns.

These predictable growth and decay patterns afford the asset-debt macroeconomic system the qualities of a hard science. Perhaps fractal growth and decay is the nature of harmonic self assembly energy elements within the apparent void that is the observable physical universe.

During asset-debt system collapsed based on default of bad debt,  the use of sovereign currency, directly traded for essential sovereign work and useful projects, is absolutely essential to moderate the consequence of collapse on the lives of the sovereign’s citizens.  Use of sovereign currency directly traded for the sovereign’s citizen’s useful work has the exact effect of credit creation of good debt, i.e., that which will be circulated in the system and that which will be repaid.

Use of the sovereign’s currency traded for services  offsets massive deflation and replaces a part of the massively vanishing  bad credit and moderates the pathway of resultant debt-asset system’s asset devaluations.

A US Governmental, Central Bank , and Treasury 21st century modified Real Bills Doctrine whereby sovereign  currency is traded for services is exactly what is needed to dampen the nonlinear contraction of bad debt load,  exiting asset valuation collapse,  and economic collapse.

 

14 September 2012 was the Wilshire’s secondary valuation high to its 11 October 2007 predicted nominal high.

As the hidden and accelerating Asset-Debt System’s Bad Debt Default and Bad Debt Valuation Collapse begins, and as net credit expansion velocity slows and turns negative, the asset-debt system’s easily observable asset valuations begin to undergo mathematical quantum fractal decay … which begins in mathematical simple fractal quantum terminal growth.

The Third x/2.5x/2x/1.5x or y/2.5y/2.5y Element Mathematical Model Possibility for Asset-Debt System Bad-Debt-Dependent-Default Asset Valuation Quantum Decay (Growth for Countervailing US Sovereign Debt Futures)
On 12 September 2012 the asset debt system evolved an eleven day  2/5/4/3 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5 growth fractal ending on 26 September 2012.   Alternatively a13 September 2012 2/5/5 day Integrated Growth and Decay Fractal evolved ending on 26 September 2012.  The second 5 day fractal of each series  had its peak valuation on 14 September 2012.

Day 16 of the 24 July 2012 8/21/16 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal series was  occurred on 21 September 2012 in the terminal half of both the eleven day and ten day fractal series.

The 11 day base 12 September 2012 fractal series is on day 23 of the second 2.5y decay fractal:  11/23 of 27/27 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y
The 10 day  base 13 September 2012 fractal series  is on day 23 of the second 2.5y decay fractal: 10/23 of 25/25 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y

With these 10 and 11 day base decay models starting on 12 September and 11 September 2012 respectively, lower valuations are expected next week with an underlying slope line containing all valuations from September 26 or day 1 of the second 2.5y decay fractal to day 25 or day 27, corresponding to 10 day  and 11 day bases respectively.