The French CAC represents the leading edge of the March 2020 Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomy. Unlike other countries, France adopted nuclear energy policy which provides 70 % of its national energy. unlike other western countries France’s consumer inflation problem peaked earlier this year at less than 6 percent because of its energy choices.
The French equity curve is following a March 2020 33/72/58 peak valuation with a gapped blow-off on 14 April 2023, representing the 58 week 3rd fractal.
This pattern is the identical to the Nikkei’s, whose 58 week lower high lower valuation is secondary to Japan’s requirement to import energy. Japan is following a 2009 45-/89/54 month :: x/2x (2.5x’)/1.5x’ three phase fractal series.
An interpolated 30 January 2023 10/23/23 day 3-phase fractal decay series is a replica replay of the August 1929 series of 11/26/28 days.
Qualitaive:
The qualitative correcting force for the macroeconomic system is the (absurd) unbalance between accumulative bad debt load which cannot be repaid and economic expansion derived from that bad debt in terms of new asset development, asset over valuation, asset overconsumption relative to wages and individual cumulative wealth, and job growth.
This is the force behind all historical equity and commodity corrections. Since 2009 with global central banks’ enormous system-saving QE and money printing, this unbalance has been arguably unprecedented. Add now the sudden 13 month appearance of QT, to combat commodity and wage inflation, with money withdrawal and dir/dtt interest rate (ir) acceleration increases by central banks. This QT has created a historically massive fault line under the global macroeconomy’s asset valuation crust.
Will there be a nonlinear event in such an unbalanced setting? With high probability, a rarer rainbow-colored swan is likely.
Quantitative:
But the macroeconomic is quantitive, self organized into exquisitely elegant and simple mathematical saturation peak valuation defined growth and nadir valuation defined decay fractals. For the already very leveraged US economy, unprecedented QE started in March 2020, in response to alpha and later delta Covid variants. a first and second fractal series of 7 and 17 months ended on 24 January 2022.
The 3rd fractal 14 month (7/17/14 :: x/2.5x/2x ) lower high was on 2 February 2023 with a final lower lower high on 9 March 2023.
From 24 January 2022, two fractal series defined by abosulte lows and a second series third fractal 48 day lower lower high valuation are observable: 30/72/71 days and 19/48/48/28 days. This would place the ‘final’ low of the second series on 17 April 2023 matching a 30 January 2023 10/23/23 day 3-phase decay series (replica of August 1929) low on 17 April 2023.
This is an interpolated part of the 1807 36/90/90/54 year US hegemonic Macroeconomic Asset-Debt system.
This fractal pattern would be consistent with an equity 2 February 2023 peak valuation 9/21/21 day decay fractal and a 2 February 8+/20/21 day US debt instrument growth fractal (lower interest rates) as money flows from equities into US Debt instruments.