On 9 Dec 2024 the global Equity composite ACWI reached an all high at 123.58. This day of peak valuation growth occurred exactly on a x/2.5x/1.618x 27 Oct 2023 :: 55/139/89 day fractal series. The SPX reached its maximum a trading day earlier, still very close to a third fractal Fibonacci time ratio of its 55 day base first fractal.

Like the Spanish empire of the 16th century, the American hegemony, is burdened with massive unrepayable debt and the accumulated interest on that debt. While short term US treasury rates are controlled somewhat by the Central Bank (and more so by the preceding low inflation environment secondary to 1990’s NAFTA and the 1999 China WTO agreements), long term US rates are controlled more by market forces. With American companies and ultimately consumers expected to pay increasing tariffs, the market is demanding higher interest US rates on long term instruments for anticipated inflation. After more than 760 days, uninversion of the 3 month minus ten year US note occurred on 13 December 2024 with a rising positive value of 0.32 on 8 January 2025.

The European manufacturing economy is crippled with ever high energy cost and the Chinese economy is imploding domestically with its internal property collapse and its dependence on exporting manufactured goods to a world of highly indebted consumers and defensive tariff-proposing governments.

A 1982 first and second fractal series 13/32 year :: 50/125 quarter :: x/2.5x nonlinear collapse in global equity valuations would abruptly change inflation expectations with a collapse in long US term interest rates.

This is expected to happen in this quarter and the next quarter.

The US hegemony is following an 1807 36/90/90/54 year x/2.5x/2.5x/2x Fractal pattern expected to end in 2074-75.

Nadirs occurred in 1842/43 and 1932 with a 90 year third fractal peak on 8 November 2021. The SPX is following an interpolated 1982 13/32/32/20 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5 self-ordered 4-phase Lammert fractal series..

The valuation fall from the SPX’s 2024 high of 6100 could be as low as 900 or 85% if the SPX nadirs near its 32 year second fractal trend line.

A 4-phase 27 October 2023 to April-May 2025 fractal collapse of 13/30/24-25/16 weeks :: x/2-2.5x/2x”/1.5x’ is shown below, as well as the 5 August 2024 to 10 January 2025 110 day third fractal lower high of the 27 October 2023 55/139/110 :: x/2.5x/2x final Lammert 3-phase growth series.

9 December 2024 was the 27 October 2023 x/2.5x/(Fibonacci) 1.618x :: 55/139/89 day maximal daily 3-phase fractal growth series for both the composite ACWI, the 100+ trillion global ETF proxy, and the 1929 survivor Tricontinental Corporation equity fund.

Will a 5 December 2024 18 day : 4/8/8 base and a Decay Fractal series of 18/45/45 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y take both indices to the natural nonlinear nadir low valuation?

The 27 October 2023 to 5 August 2024 55/139 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series occurred with a nonlinear lower low gap between day 137 and day 138 and again between day 138 and 139, one day beyond the usual maximum 2.5x second fractal time limit with a reversal on day 139 ending near the high of the day.

It is possible a partial extra day could occur for the 5 August 2024 to 14 December 2024 27 day/currently 67 of 68 day first and 2nd fractal series.

For the next 30 years with the immutable central bank remedy of monetization of debt , maximum 2.5x length of second fractals … in the first use of money and debt creation arena, the equity market -and by the advantaged wealthy who can and will readily borrow – will occur and should be expected.

The elan of the December 2024 US Super Equity Bubble is divorced from the underlying realities of the citizens’ economy; manufacturing indicators down for 24 months, full-time jobs decreasing, high consumer debt load, and debt payment delinquencies increasing.

The 68th/69th day of the x/2.5x 27/68-69 day 5 August 2024 will be a nonlinear lower low. How low will the low be? Time will tell.

Is Tri-Continental Corp that dates before and survived 1919 the coal-mine canary? A lower low gap occurred on Friday the 13th.

On an optimistic note: perhaps Elon Musk’s unique abilities can be coordinated to target the production of enough thorium reactors to produce 50% of America’s energy requirements by 2035.