A Riveting Disrupting Global Nonlinear Hard Landing

The US 1807 36/90/90/54 year asset debt valuation cycle.

Cycles  of debt expansion occur causing increases in asset valuations until bad debt cannot be sustained, then  bad debt liquidation and asset valuation declination synergistically feed on each other. 

1932 ended the US Second Fractal 90 year debt expansion and collapse cycle and November 2021 ended its Third Fractal apogee 90 year finale debt expansion and asset peak valuation cycle.  

A 1932  first subfractal 10-11/21/21 year debt expansion cycle ended in 1982 with  Volcker’s interest rate hike solution to contain consumer  price inflation.

The initial cycle of the 1982 Second Subfractal, secondary to the 1932 to 1982 51 year First Subfractal cycle, was composed of a 13 year 3/7/5 year cycle ending in 1994.  The second subcycle to this 13 year base is compose of a series of sub fractals: a 1994 16 year 3/7/8 year cycle ending in 2009 and thereafter 2 subseries; 2/4/5 years and 2/4/4 years. Each cycle unit has ended with an underlying trend line containing all of the preceding valuation lows as bad debt was liquidated.

If the asset debt system maintains its previous consistency,  a valuation nonlinear low for the SPX will be about 1000, a 75 % nonlinear decrease from the current valuation.  From 2009 the two cycles are each roughly 17/35/35  months.

Expect a riveting hard landing for asset owners as asset valuations fall to long term trend lines.

Leave a Reply