Gold, Composite Equities, and The Hegemonic Long Term US Debt

It has always been the thought that even the old grizzled fractalist would be fooled by the final equity high. By simple fractal math the composite equity final high could be a 24 July 2012  7-8/17-20/9-16 day :: x/2-5x/1.1x -2x final fractal growth pathway.

But an equity break-down on the second equity subfractal with an ascendent beginning of US long term debt as the favored much  safer investment has a qualitative appeal. Us Ten Year Notes and 30 Year Bond assume the dominant investment vehicle role timed with the collapse of bad private and poorer country, city, state, county, business et. al debt denominated in other stronger sovereign currency.

Nearly all are aware of the dysequilibrium of the system and collapsing velocity of new money growth by newly created debt. QE3-nth is at hand with the intent to prevent total implosion and chaos  in the debt asset system.

The long term patterned progression and behavior  is the science of the mechanistic deterministic nonstochastic self organizing patterns of the quadrillion dollar equivalent  debt-asset macroeconomy’s highly traded asset classes of debt, equities composites, and commodities.

This is a qualitative guess that the system’s asset historical  devaluation is imminent and that the peaks in the composite equities, commodities, and the reverse of the value of held US debt, the lower high interest rate ….  occurred on 21 August, 23 August, and 21 August 2012 respectively.

Even if the short term daily fractal prognostication is wrong, the long term quantum fractal progression of the macroeconomic countervailing asset classes; sovereign hegemonic debt on the one hand and on the other commodities and equities shows a well defined self assembly pattern to macroeconomic system elevating it and its mathematical patterned behavior to a science….

“Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable. Valuations confirm (conform) to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data emanating from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. Information from this site is not intended to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool. This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate and monetary policy.

The cyclical nature of the macroeconomic system operates by causality rather than chance. Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by interest rates – the cost of money. Lowering nominal interest rates, below asset inflation controlling rates, leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This expansion engenders unbalanced forward consumption, consumer saturation, overproduction, and inflation of assets and consumer items. With the addition of ongoing wages of the consumer masses, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic imbalances will self correct.    

Market overvaluation saturation and decay corrections to new lower saturation points occur in a fractal manner. Cyclical patterns can readily be identified on valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The transitional asymptote of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves which bring market valuations to lowered levels where intelligent buyers reenter the market.    

Human psychology is a decidedly lagging indicator and follows as an end effect of the mechanistic saturation and decay evolutions in the market. Market contrarians understand these turning points and anticipate the directional changes of the markets based both on market asymptotic overvaluation saturation areas or decay end-point saturation characteristics and counter intuitively by recognizing the lagging psychological parameters of extreme optimism or pessimism in reaction to the mechanistic respective high and low points.    

Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units.    

The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves.  

 G. Lammert

This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .”

 

 

 

Will both US political parties realize that necessary QE program implementation  to maintain essential services  and US employment will only serve to stem the severity of the coming  system collapse  as rapidly as they supported the financial industry in 2008?

Will they make an American emergency coalition for a national treasury real bills doctrine and program where US currency is traded for peaceful US citizen valued labor. Will other countries follow suit and use their currency for similar peaceful purposes in this generational debt-asset macroeconomic collapse.

Time will soon tell.

And why is it that the equity composites will not make a final high in its third final growth fractal of a 24 July 2012 series of 8/17-20/11-16 days?

It is because at the very end of the 1982 9/23 year equity first and second fractal series and at the precipice of global debt default as evidence by the US bond’s 8/20/20 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal ending on 23 August 2012,  the US hegemonic 30 year bond will then assume a (nonlinear) role of the global asset-debt system’s preferred asset for money equivalent placement.

 

 

The 4 June 2012 to 25 July 2012 Nikkei : This is Non Stochastic Saturation Macroeconomics.

Lammert Saturation Economics prospectively predicted the 11 October 2007 Wilshire high valuation.

From the Mainpage of TEF: The Economic Fractalist:

The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves.  

 G. Lammert

This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .

Saturation Macroeconomics: the debt-asset macroeconomic system as a predictable science.

What is science, but patterned behavior?

Physics, chemistry, and biology are all characterized by self assembly patterned behavior.

The patterned self organization of the subatomic particles in precise ratios to form protons and neutrons; the self assembly nature of protons, neutrons, and electrons in forming the elements of the periodic table; the further self assembly of those elemental unique atoms into molecular arrangements and the precise chemical reactions and biochemical reactions producing the more complex organic amino acids, nucleic acids, self assembly proteins forming the cell’s and neuron’s cytoskeleton microtubules and forming  the long chained amino acids self conformational-folding enzymes which self regulate cellular activity; the sperm egg DNA programed self assembly process that unfolds in a mechanical deterministic way and represents the improbable science of embryology, the larger collection and self organization of matter creating solar systems, galaxies; and the sum total fields produced by the known universe self organizing collections of matter and its newly corroborated Higgs boson.

The earth’s quadrillion dollar equivalent debt asset macroeconomic system is puny compared to the universe’s smaller and larger self assembly systems – but that system and saturation macroeconomics  is part of the larger deterministic system and it too has the property of self assembly.

Saturation macroeconomics, one day, will become recognized as an equivalent science.

One fifth to one quarter of the debt-asset macroeconomic system’s one quadrillion dollar equivalent valuation is debt. 99 percent (if one considers corporations and the financial industry as people) is owed by the 99 percent who trade future labor and service for immediate consumption of available assets. On the other side is the 0.05 % Trans-Generational Wealthiers, who own the debt (and the future labor and services of the 99 percent). The Trans Generational Wealthiers consider the owed debt as a positive asset entry on their total wealth valuation ledger.

Observe the 30, 50, 80, 223 years patterned valuation charts of the Wilshire (and its progenitor equity class earlier railroad and canal stocks). What particular individual news or political events caused the Wilshire’s and its progenitors’ regular periodic patterns?

The answer is none.

While the Wilshire currently valued at 14 3/4 trillion dollars represents less than 0.15 % of the quadrillion dollar equivalent global asset-debt total valuation; it represents on a daily, weekly, monthly, yearly basis: the exact summation of the total asset-debt system’s operational status at any particular point in time.

Those periodic rising and declining valuation patterns of the Wilshire were caused by credit expansion, immediate consumption, asset production and oversupply, asset overvaluation, saturation of the worthy and not so worthy debtor population, and  finally bad credit liquidation.

After 223 years of patterned behavior since the signing its constitution, the hegemonic US and the world have reached an apogee of bad debt creation, asset oversupply (and overvaluation), and a generally forwardly consumed saturated status.

Can the timing of the global equity crash be accurately predicted?

It is in the US long term sovereign debt valuation saturation curves that the dominant pattern exists for determining the timing of the secondary peak valuations and, thereafter, the historical nonlinearity of valuations in the countervailing equity and commodity asset classes.

Retrospectively, does not the 30 year US bond purchased at 6–7 percent in the late 90′s looks like one of the best of all quality ‘investments.’

As the world undergoes weaker (non US) sovereign debt default, US school, city and county and perhaps state debt default, similar global local municipal debt default, industrial debt default(consider the recent articles about the debt  and liquidity problems involving the saturated container shipping industry as representative of the inevitable global declining trade activity), private citizen credit card, college loan, car loan, and first and second mortgage debt default….

The massive default on non-sovereign debt is at hand and quality sovereign debt, i.e.,
US thirty year bond interest rates will plummet to less than 0.5 percent.

Can the US repay its sovereign debt?

It can and it will; It will repay every dime, nickel, and penny.

The US, as the sovereign hegemony, is the sole owner of its dollar denominated monetary system.