Lammert Saturation Economics: The Self Assembly Asset- Debt System: 16 August 2012 the Predicted Final Lower High US 30 Year Interest Rate

This is a monster boom bust  cycle.

Inflation of real estate and western wages from 1945 to 2000 has consistently provided the increasing needed collateral and purchasing power for  greater and greater debt load leverage for which the US has reached an asymptote of about 50 trillion dollars over the last 4 years.

The European Union  and Euro were rolled out on a carpet of easy credit and debt issuance too good to be real.

At a 50 year  pinnacle of debt creation and accumulation – without more than a few years of negative US GDP growth – real estate itself, the principle major asset for the average citizen, was used as the global speculative asset in the 2000’s. This added an enormous   supplemental debt load on  the existing  50 year accumulated debt load.

Without the added speculative real estate bubble, the asset debt system would have corrected the accumulated 2000 debt load at a much lower total valuation level with sizable but less disruptive societal problems.

As well, US wage earners saw stagnant wages as US companies began manufacturing partnerships with non US much much lower paying wage countries. Those western citizen wage earners buying  well-hawked Central Bank Chairman cheer-leaded  houses from 2003 to 2008, had their hearts cut out and families traumatized sometimes to the nth degree  with homelessness.  Those in the US owning a house before 2000 took  on more debt to pay for vacations, second automobiles, children colleges fees, and some non essential niceties.

With the inevitable debt-asset first ‘minor’ crash in 2008 and early 09 and with the music stopping, the US wage earner was left standing, looking for a chair, while the US political system gave all the sit-down chairs to the financial industry.

The citizens were left to the care of America’s private enterprise sector supplemented by the US central bank’s QE 1 and  QE2.  This funding did provide a floor under the economy and certainly under the tax advantaged legislative favored equity asset class – again  primarily benefiting those previously escorted and seated in the velvet lined musical chairs.

Regardless of its massive debt load the US is the current hegemony in the world of nations.  Because so many countries and so many wealthy individuals own US dollars; its sovereign debt during global bad debt destruction will be a favored asset, even as the 30 year US bond reaches interest rates of less than 1. 25 percent.

As the world’s hegemony and with so many nations and individuals invested in US debt, the US Federal Reserve or its replacement can directly trade the nation’s currency for useful labor, services, and production.

After all, the ultimate measure of a currency is in the labor, services, production, innovations, goods, and societal utility elements for which  it can be traded.

Does the business of lending the nation’s currency and the interest on the nation’s currency belong to the nation or to the private issuers of money and reciprocal debt?

The tendency of the private issuers of debt , epitomized by the Financial Industry,  is to avariciously compete for the debtor population with abandon and imprudence – lending far too much of their reserves to too many debtors who have little probability of repaying it.

The debtor population is consumed – and saturated with debt.

Because ultimately it, the business of lending of money, is a competitve business of lending money, private competing issuers of debt will always create substantial bad debt – that which cannot be repaid- overproduced and overvalued assets, and  boom bust cycles.

On the contrary when government directly issues money in exchange for the labor of policeman, teachers, fireman, energy researcher and developers, military, contractors, agriculture supplementation, those involved with water purity and delivery, sanitation, infrastructure, electrical grid enhancement, et. al., there is a direct benefit to society.

This issued money directly by the Sovereign and traded for labor maintains the society during disruptive periods that have been principally created by the private financial sector and private lending issuers  by imprudently lending what the did not have in their vaults to those who could repay and creating the boom bust bad debt-asset cycles.

Wages derived from direct government issuance of its sovereign currency maintain debt repayment to private lenders, flow into the private business sector which would otherwise suffer from a huge demultiplier effect as was the case in the 1930’s when GDP dropped by 45 percent and ultimately stabilizes a system where the 0.1 percent are allowed to maintain trans-generational wealth.

During the natural accompanying  chaos in the Debt-Asset Macroeconomic system’s  expected deterministic and self-assembly 155 year US second fractal colossal deflationary collapse, trans-generational wealth rules may well be heaped upon the dung piles of history.

National currency directly  traded for labor and essential societal functions  during  global economic crises ultimately mostly benefits those who have the most to lose.




The 6-8 August 2012 Conclusion of the 4 July 2012 Wilshire First and Second Subfractal x/2x Self Organizing Series :: 16/32 Days – And Associated Nonlinear Loss of 1/2 Trillion Valuation.

US employment news, news about the Troika imprisonment bailout for the Greeks, US and European puny GDP estimations, baltic dry weight traffic, municipality bankruptcies, bank failures, MidEastern crisis news, political have and have-not diatribe polarization trifling driblets – are all true true and yet merely epiphenomena  dependent variables of the self assembly one quadrillion US equivalent dollar global asset-debt saturation macroeconomic system.

The Wilshire’s  third subfractal with a 7 day expected apogee  begins on 8 August 2012.

The Global Asset-Debt Self-Assembly Macroeconomic System – August 2012 as the Final Global Equity Lower High: The March 2003 to August 2012 x/2.5x/2x :: 21/52/42 Month Nikkei

From the 2005 Main Page of The Economic Fractalist:

” The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves.  

 G. Lammert

This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .”

Why August 2012 as the Final Lower Global Equity High?

 August 2012 completes a  21/52/42 month :: x/2.5x/2x ideal Nikkei three phase fractal growth series which began on 11 March 2003.  August 2012 is the 42nd month of the 42 month third  growth fractal of the 21/52/42 series.

The expected fourth fractal of this series would ideally be 1.5-1.6x or 32-34 months which coincides with the 1929-1932 and 2000-2003 peak to nadir equity valuations.

113 months compose the March 2003 to August 2012 Nikkei 21/52/42 month final Lammert growth fractal series.

This 113 months composes the third fractal of a much larger Nikkei fractal series: a 57/129/113 :: x/2-2.5x/2x Nikkei declining fractal growth series beginning in late 1987.

Inflation adjusted for late 1987 the Nikkei has lost well over 90 percent of its peak valuation.

Most substantially this is the terminal time  area of the US asset-debt system’s second fractal beginning in 1858.  A 155 year second fractal nonlinear asset devaluation transformation of historical proportions  will occur and is well timed with the European Euro debt-asset system debt default and disintegration and the correlative US state, county, and city  municipalities debt default and disruptive restructuring.