Every individual asset class including commodes and cryptocurrencies can be thought of as being denominated in the total valuation of all (global)assets. When stock valuations decline, bonds lose book value, or debt is defaulted, the total global valuation is diminished. Two to ten year US Treasury yield inversion is the hallmark of Federal Reserve credit tightening and has preceded recessions in 1972-4, 1980-2, 1990-91, 2001, 2007-2009, and 2019-20. This time is different, a much greater % to total debt to GDP exist and a colossal quantitative amount of bad debt needs to be liquidated. The Zombie corporations like many ditsy start-up tech companies, the ARKk ETF, and airline companies have led and will lead the equity valuation decline.

The peak for the CAC and secondary peak for all other equity markets occurred near 14 April 2023, a 33/72 (ideal base 29 x’)/58 week :: x/2.5x’/2x’ fractal growth series. The 58 week third fractal is composed of two weekly series: a four phase growth and decay series of 5/11/10/7 weeks and a 6/13/12 week three phase growth series. A 9 week decay series is coming next.

The final daily series for the French CAC’s second 6/13/12 week fractal series series is 26/62/52 days starting at the low on 29 Sept 2022. and ending at the 52 day high on 14 April 2023. The 52 day series is composed of a 9/22/22 day fractal. Interpolated within this is a 13 March 2023 10/14 of 21/21/13 which completes a 26/62/52/39 day series. The 39 day 9 week decay series would serve as a base for a 9/18-19/18-19 week series completing a four phase March 2020 33/72(ideal base 29)/58/43-44 week series.

The French CAC represents the leading edge of the March 2020 Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomy. Unlike other countries, France adopted nuclear energy policy which provides 70 % of its national energy. unlike other western countries France’s consumer inflation problem peaked earlier this year at less than 6 percent because of its energy choices.

The French equity curve is following a March 2020 33/72/58 peak valuation with a gapped blow-off on 14 April 2023, representing the 58 week 3rd fractal.

This pattern is the identical to the Nikkei’s, whose 58 week lower high lower valuation is secondary to Japan’s requirement to import energy. Japan is following a 2009 45-/89/54 month :: x/2x (2.5x’)/1.5x’ three phase fractal series.

Saturation Macroeconomics

An interpolated 30 January 2023 10/23/23 day 3-phase fractal decay series is a replica replay of the August 1929 series of 11/26/28 days.

Qualitaive:

The qualitative correcting force for the macroeconomic system is the (absurd) unbalance between accumulative bad debt load which cannot be repaid and economic expansion derived from that bad debt in terms of new asset development, asset over valuation, asset overconsumption relative to wages and individual cumulative wealth, and job growth.

This is the force behind all historical equity and commodity corrections. Since 2009 with global central banks’ enormous system-saving QE and money printing, this unbalance has been arguably unprecedented. Add now the sudden 13 month appearance of QT, to combat commodity and wage inflation, with money withdrawal and dir/dtt interest rate (ir) acceleration increases by central banks. This QT has created a historically massive fault line under the global macroeconomy’s asset valuation crust.

Will there be a nonlinear event in such an unbalanced setting? With high probability, a rarer rainbow-colored swan is likely.

Quantitative:

But the macroeconomic is quantitive, self organized into exquisitely elegant and simple mathematical saturation peak valuation defined growth and nadir valuation defined decay fractals. For the already very leveraged US economy, unprecedented QE started in March 2020, in response to alpha and later delta Covid variants. a first and second fractal series of 7 and 17 months ended on 24 January 2022.

The 3rd fractal 14 month (7/17/14 :: x/2.5x/2x ) lower high was on 2 February 2023 with a final lower lower high on 9 March 2023.

From 24 January 2022, two fractal series defined by abosulte lows and a second series third fractal 48 day lower lower high valuation are observable: 30/72/71 days and 19/48/48/28 days. This would place the ‘final’ low of the second series on 17 April 2023 matching a 30 January 2023 10/23/23 day 3-phase decay series (replica of August 1929) low on 17 April 2023.