Does a deterministic self-assembly time-based fractal pattern govern the growth and decay of asset valuations in the asset- debt macroeconomic system? While central banks can and do control credit and debt expansion in the system, the countervailing limiting factor against continuous GDP expansion is aggregate consumer ability to expand collective personal debt in the framework of ongoing income and accumulated prior debt to make purchases in an asset over-valued environment.
The ACWI, the world equity proxy, is a descendant of the US 1807 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year 4 phase equity/commodity progenitor fractal series originating 15 years after the Buttonwood agreement in 1792.
Does – the 27 Oct 2023 to 17 June 2025 55/139/135/83 day :: x/2,5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series concluding 1982 to 2025 peak growth and initiating incipient decay in a 1982 to 2026 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series- represent a fractal replica of the US 1807 great 4-phase fractal series? Time will soon tell.
May 15 2025: The final 3 day SPX lower high blow-off 31 day 3rd Fractal Countertrend Growth Series.
The German Dax propelled by exiting US equity money and new German defense deficit to GDP spending exceeding 2 percent has recently reached record peaks.
From 3 February 2025 the SPX is self-ordered as a 14/31/28 of 31/20 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x’/1.5x’ 4 phase crash decay fractal series. The 1st 3 Feb 2025 14 day fractal is a growth series, the second fractal ending 7 April is a decay series, the 3rd Fractal is a 31 day countertrend growth series and the final 20 day 4th Fractal starting 20 May is a crash decay series ending about 17 June 2025.
This fractal series is interpolated within a final peak SPX valuation series starting 27 October 2023 and ending 17 June 2025, a x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 55/139/136/82 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series peaking on day 136 of the 3rd Fractal on 19 Feb 2025.
This is interpolated within the terminal portion of a 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series which is interpolated within a US hegemonic 1807 36/9/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series.
The terminal 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractal portion of the 3 February 2025 to 17 June 2025 decay series will become the first fractal of 4-phase fractal series ending in 2026.
The US ten year bond is undergoing a 3 day lower high blow-off yielding lower high interest rate yields.
The incipient crash fractal sequence of the 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series which includes the terminal 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x 19 February 2025 SPX peak valuation is a 3 February 14/32/26-32/20 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x’-2.5x’/1.5x’ 4-phase Lammert Fractal Series.
