The Quantitative History of American Macroeconomics: The Greatest Ever Asset-Debt Macroeconomic Quantitative Collapse ::  The Terminal 51/113/103 Day :: x/2-2.5x/2x Growth Fractal

Nonlinear Asset Valuation Collapse… 

Starting near the time of the endorsement of the US  constitution, it is the current and contemporary  time  frame of January 2020, that  is the historical time frame of the quantitative  asset  peak valuation  and the terminal portion of the 90 year Third Great Fractal cycle of the Great US Hegemonic Fractal Growth Cycle –  ending in a  classic  maximally extended x/2.5x/2.5x of x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x  :: 36/90/90/54 year pattern.

Since its inception, US (and prior hegemonic and global) periodic  job growth is synergistically associated with  large expansions of credit and debt-based growth on that job expansion which causes further job expansion causing further credit expansion until a saturation area of asset production and relative overvaluation is reached.

It is the observational theory of this web site that this known qualitative cyclical process is a time dependent (dt) and easily recognizable quantitative process.

The system’s assets’s valuations turn negative when the acceleration dt/dt of debt expansion of the base population  slows to zero. The system then undergoes nonlinear asset valuation  collapse and devaluation as bad debt undergoes default and debt based assets are ‘revalued’ and repossessed at a lower valuation and placed on an oversupplied market relative to reduced jobs and nonlinearly contracted available credit.

Starting about 1790 and ending in 1807-08 , an 18 year ‘initiating  US fractal’ for a hegemonic three phase fractal cycle of debt dependent asset growth and terminal collapse was completed. 

This 18 year (1/2x) initiating fractal cycle generated a x/2.5x/2.5x cycle of 36/90 and currently 89 years with respective cycle ends in 1842-43, 1932 and a projected end in 2020-2021 for a 36/90/89-90 year  three phase fractal cycle.

The final cycle after 2020-21 is expected to be about 54 years. This will be a revealing and educational  cycle globally as it will become evident that current debt  and future  social debt obligations cannot be mathematically paid for by future inflationary  economic expansion by its base population as it has been in the past 235 years of  growth cycles.  The only  forced option is sovereign money printing to pay for the accumulated debt and  past social contract  promises. This option has as its 2008  precedent in  HR 1424.

Since the 1932 global  Great 2nd fractal low,  there have been two easily recognizable  three phase fractal series:

1. a 50 year three phase cycle  of 10+/21/21 years  :: x/2x/2x  ending in 1982 and
2. and 39 year three phase cycle of  9/20/11 of 11-12 years  expected to nadir in 2020 to 2021.

The 89-90 year Great US Third Fractal’s short 2009 terminal third fractal series of 11-12 years matches the ending of 12 year third fractal from 1921 to 1932 which ended the 1842-43 to 1932 90 year Great Second US Fractal. 

The 2009 three phase fractal series is a 31/53/currently 48 month cycle

The third final 48 month  fractal current  is a 11/26/currently 14 month sequence.

The 14 month sequence is composed of 51/113/currently 103 days or x/2-2.5x/2x growth sequence. Collapse is imminent.

Expect a well defined  self organized decay fractal over the 14 trading days of historical devaluation possibly a 4/8/6 day devolution.

The fractal pattern of summation commodity valuations, i.e., CRB is well aligned with that the US equities.  Just as the CRB index collapsed in parallel with global equity valuations in 2008-2009, expect a similar sharp decay pattern but over the next 14 trading days.

From the December 2018 low

7/18/18/10 of 11 weeks

From the 1 June 2018 low : 18/45/45/28 {(2)5/12/ 9 of 12)} days

The Great November 2019 Global Equity Nonlinear Crash:

As Deutsche Bank goes from its December lows: 7.5/18/15/10 of 12 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x so goes the Global Macroeconomic Asset Debt Valuation System:

In the face of global stagnation: default on bad global debt is at its qualitative  nonlinear break point.

The global system  now has the dual burdens  of enormous debt load and a non-expanding global economy.  In the setting of a  non-expanding economy to partially service and sustain the quality of  that debt, recognition will be made that the debt cannot be repaid and it will under default initiating a cascade of asset devaluation and larger secondary derivative bet devaluations.

From its December 2018 lows, the Deutsche Bank weekly fractal series conveys the true state of both the European and Global Macroeconomic system. Quantitatively Deutsche Bank’s weekly fractal series and current week of that fractal series exactly matches the Global Macroeconomy’s position of sudden nonlinear collapse.

The inability and failure to further expand and inflate to sustain debt quality represents the exact conditions of a terminal illness for global asset-debt system’s  peak cycle asset valuations. 

Like death, asset devaluation is a sudden nonlinear event.

Was the US Federal Reserve right in lowering interest rates and encouraging citizens to preferentially place their money in a stock market deterministically destined to collapse within a fixed time fractal frame?

The Reserve can make the claim that it was attempting to  do everything it  could to prevent the inevitable. 

For Deutsche Bank, its weekly fractal series is telltale of a nonlinear collapse occurring over the next 7 to 8 trading days. Deutsche Bank’s first and second fractals are in a classical Lammert Fractal pattern of x/2.5x :: 7.5/18 weeks.

Deutsche Bank’s third and fourth weekly fractals of the four phase series are interpolated into two subfractal series of 2/5/4/3 weeks and  3/7/6 of 8 week series with a peak valuation on week 15 of the interpolated series or week 2x of the x/2.5x/2x :: 7.5/18/15 week fractal growth series. The 4th week fractal is composed of 12 weeks starting from the 15 week high of the third fractal for a completed fractal series from the December low of 7.5/18/15/12 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x.  Nonlinearity and DB devaluation is expected in the next  8 trading days representing weeks 11 and 12 of the 4th descent fractal.

For the SPX from its December 2018 low,  the final series is x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x :: 32/79/77/42 of 50 days with the 1.5-1.6x 4th fractal in  a yx’y’  pattern with x’ representing a 32 day blow-off fractal.

The SPX December 2018  low’s first and second fractals of 32/79days :: x/2.5x  exactly matches Deutsch Bank’s December 2018 low’s first and second weekly fractals.  

The SPX’s third fractal has a secondary peak of  2.5x or 77 days. The first y descent of its 4th fractal  from the 77 day peak third fractal is part of a larger 16 day base descent fractal  for an expected 40 day second fractal. 

The blow off  x’ fractal is now at the 32nd day with a gap higher on Friday 15 November 2018 ending near the high of the day. The x’  32 day blow off fractal pattern (with a 16 day base descent fractal ) is composed of two subfractals: 4/9/6 days and 5/10/3 days with an expected  y’ descent of 8 days for a 16/40 day :: x/2.5x fractal series.

Expect the inevitable deterministic  and mathematical expected. Expect system nonlinear devaluation.