Global composite equity indexes; real estate index funds, the proxy for real estate;  debt, and commodity valuations of the asset-debt global macroeconomy are perfectly and exactly correctly priced along their respective  minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly and yearly time fractal unit saturation trading curves.  This system is comprehensively integrative and perfect in its valuation process.

Each composite asset is perfectly valued with  its individual denomination based in the ongoing totality of the cumulative valuation worth of the  entire asset debt macroeconomic system. 

This blog observes the elegantly simple fractal growth and decay patterns defined both by  nadir composite valuations by which the asset debt macroeconomic system is defined  and the progression of those valuations, which  occur in well-defined  quantitative fractal patterns. This underlying growth, decay, and the quantitative mathematical cyclical fractal nature of the system  represents the patterned science of the global asset debt macroeconomy.

The nadir to nadir cycles occur because of unrepayable bad debt  accumulation relative to  asset over valuations of the system caused directly by that relative excessive  expansion.

The 90 year third fractal nonlinear devolution conclusion of the US hegemonic 1807 36/90/89 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x Great Fractal series is near. A 54 year 4th fractal will end the US hegemonic series in 2073.

The 1932 89 year US third fractal is composed of two yearly subfractals: a 10/20-1/20-1 year x/2x/2x fractal ending in 1982 and a 9/20/12 :: x/2-25x/1.5x  year fractal  series ending  in 2020.

The third of third fractal beginning in December 2018 is composed of two weekly decay subfractal series of 6/15/15 weeks :: y/2.5y/2.5y and 8/18/16 of 18 weeks :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y and one interpolative 11/28/28/18 week decay fractal series:: y/2.5y/2.5y/1.6y.  The  expected low for the system is  28 May 2020.

N. Roubini offers the qualitative pathway forward for the Global Asset Debt Macroeconomic System.

The terminal  weekly fractal series starting in December 2018 for the 36/90/89 Year :: x/2.5x/2.5x  1807 Three Phase  US Maximal  Growth Fractal Series   is  11/24/28/ 12 of 16 weeks ::                                X: 2-2.5x/2.5x/1.5x.

The inevitable system asset valuation collapse caused by maximum unrepayable bad debt accumulation which has  directly caused  historical asset overvaluation, finds its terminal end in a December 2018 x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 11/24/28/12 of 16 weekly fractal series grouping.

An 80-90 percent nonlinear 4 week drop in equity and commodity valuations is expected from the current early May 2020 valuation level.

This will upend the local US system’s established retirement 401 K’s, state pension plans,  and  will revaluate and re-equilibrate  asset valuations in terms of remaining unencumbered foundation-of the-real-economic-pyramid citizen ongoing productivity earnings and savings.

The fact is: there is not much US citizens’  savings.  As well, currently there is no wind for the sails of  US service sector earnings to support new debt.

The coronavirus epidemic has temporarily obfuscated the natural course of deterministic asset debt saturation macroeconomics.

Mathematical algorithms in the future will show the delta between the natural evolution of peak bad debt accumulation and liquidation  and the significantly obfuscating  variable of 30 million unemployed US service workers in the US and, globally, for example, 4 times that many in India.

That delta will be significant: instead of an 80 percent drop in 4 weeks from the current equity valuation and commodity  levels, there will be a 90 percent drop.

The flash crash nonlinearity of 6 May 2010, precisely a decade ago,  was also, likewise precisely,  secondary to the nonlinear  laws of second fractals in asset debt saturation  macroeconomics, as was  the nonlinear drop  between week 22 and 23 of the second fractal in the December 2018 11/24/28/12 of 16 week terminal fractal series.

At the base of the economic pyramid, consumer saturation ownership of daily used commodities facilitated by easy credit and citizen high personal debt; asset overvaluation of major purchase items facilitated with 1930’s era low interest rates;  historically high corporate debt load with non value added and formerly illegal buy back purchases  of  corporate stock which have been  further  facilitated by  corporate  tax cuts unlinked to product  creation and innovation; financial derivative products exponentializing risks in a nonlinear down market; and unfunded pensions represent  the basis of  a debt dependent crash of historical proportions.  This inevitable and inexorable crash was expected   in 2020 and completed an 1807 US hegemonic Great Saturation Fractal Series of x/2.5x/2.5x :: 36/90/90 years with nadirs in 1842-3 after the panic of 1837 and in 1932 after the crash in 1929.  With the exception of pensions and derivatives, the foundations for the debt dependent asset overvaluation and asset over ownership saturation  1837 and 1929  crashes were similar to the current one.  Now superimposed on that expected 2020 devaluation  is the  sudden unemployment of 20-25  percent of the global workforce secondary to the pandemic.

Starting in February 2020, the ongoing daily decay fractal series  is 10/24/19 of 24 days.  Even with the unlimited support of central banks expect a nonlinear fractal devaluation of 80 percent and more of the global market’s  current valuation.