All posts by Gary Lammert

Presidents Hoover and Trump, Victims Of Timing: the Nov 2024 Crash Is Still On …

The American people have spoken: inflation and open borders are more important issues than abortion rights and perceived threats to democracy. The macroeconomic asset debt system is indifferent to the occupation of political offices … this is true in America, China, Europe, Japan, Russia, et. al. Excessive debt and overproduction and overvaluation of assets .. based on that excessive debt … have inevitable negative outcome consequences.

The day after the US elections, 6 Nov, a great divergence occurred between the European stock composite and US equity composites. The European STOXX 600 ended down 0.54%, while near the same trading hour, the US SPX was up over 2%.

As Ford goes … so goes the US economy; transportation is needed at the base of the macroeconomic pyramid to move people to work and product to market.

Below is the depiction of the current fractal progression for Ford from 5 August 2024.

The 5 November 2024 Global Equity Crash: Initial Synchronized Second Fractal Nonlinearity

From the 2005 Main page of The Economic Fractalist : “A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle (SECOND FRACTAL) and characterizes this most recognizable cycle.”

The 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal cycle ending in 2074 had in the terminal portion of its 90 year 2.5x second cycle or fractal ending in 1932, relative nonlinearity in equity and commodity valuations from 1929 to 1932.

After a 1932 10+/21-22/21-22 year :: x/2x/2x growth fractal ending in 1982, a 13/ 32 year interpolated 1st and 2nd fractal series from 1982 to 2025 is expected to end in a relative nonlinear devaluation of equities and commodities. The 90 year 2nd Fractal ending in 1932 with a 36 year first fractal occurred over 32 months from its final peak to its nadir. With a 1982 year 13 year first fractal, by proportionality, this might occur in 9-10 months.
Below are four first and second fractal series dating from about 1982, March 2020, and 27 October 2023.
The first is composed of a 1982 49-51 quarter/ 126 quarter :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series ending in about June 2025.
The second is a March 2020 19/39 of 46-48 month :: x/2-2.5x first and second fractal series.
The third is a 27 Oct 55/139 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series ending on 5 August 2024.
The fourth is a 27 Oct 74/185 day :: x/2.5x first and second series ending 5 November 2024.

A 1982 49-51 quarter/ 126 quarter :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series ending in about June 2025. the first 49-51 quarter fractal is composed of a 10/25/16-18 quarter fractal series. The last three quarters of the 51 quarter first fractal appears to be shared with the 126 quarter 2nd fractal. The 126 quarter second fractal is composed of a 60 quarter sub cycle and a 67 quarter subcycle as below.

The first 60 quarter subcycle of the second fractal of a 1982 49-51 quarter/ 126 quarter :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series ending in about June 2025.

The second 67 quarter sub cycle of the second fractal of a 1982 49-51 quarter/ 126 quarter :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series ending in about June 2025.

A March 2020 19/39 of 46-48 month :: x/2-2.5x first and second fractal series.

A 27 Oct 55/139 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series ending on 5 August 2024.

A 27 Oct 74/185 day :: x/2.5x first and second series ending with an initial crash on 5 November 2024 and continuing with lower growth and greater decay cycles with a nadir in about June 2025.

A 5 November 2024 Election Day Crash: the 11 Sept 6/12/15/10 day :: x/2x/2.5x/1.6x 4-phase Lammert Crash Fractal Series

Within the US hegemonic 1807 great 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5 fractal series of 36/90/90/54 years (with nadirs in 1842, 1932, and 2074) is the interpolated 1982 1st and 2nd fractal series of 13/32 years ending in approximately October 2025. A 14 week fractal series from 5 August to 5 November 2024 will form the incipient crash first fractal base for the weekly decay series ending in about Oct 2025.

Since 1982 the US GDP has expanded from 3.3 trillion to 29 trillion, a 9 fold increase, while US debt has expanded from 1.1 trillion to 35 trillion, a 32 fold increase. Excess dollars created by governmental fiscal policy and facilitated by central bank monetary policy have flowed preferentially into equities aided with 20 years of corporate-lobbied legislative buy-back laws while US middle class manufacturing jobs have been expatriated in support of corporate financial goals over national security goals.

US % GDP-deficit spending in 2020 was 14.66, the highest since WW2 with persistent 11.7, 5.3, 6.1, and 6.7 % deficit spending in subsequent years yielding a 4 year average of 2-3% annual GDP growth, touted to be the envy of G7 countries.

Below is current fractal model of the 5 August 2024 to the 5 November 2024 crash which consists of two daily fractal subseries. This will complete a 16/40 week 1st and 2nd fractal series starting 27 October 2023.