There Are Two identifiable October 2023 Interpolated First and Second Weekly and Daily x/2-2.5x Fractal series. 5 August 2024 represented the first interpolated fractal series’s low: 8 October 2024 is the second interpolated series’s Global Equity Crash Low

It is the hypothesis of this website that the growth and decay of the asset-debt macroecomic system’s asset valuations self assemble in a deterministic and optimal mathematical time-based fractal manner under two simple self-ordered fractal ‘laws’ or modes: a 4-phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x time-based fractal series and a 3-phase time-based fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x. The arbitrary nomenclature within the 4 phase series is as follows: x is termed the first fractal; 2-2.5x is the second fractal; 2-2.5x is the third fractal, and 1.5-1.6x is the fourth fractal. In the 3-phase series x, 2-2.5x, and 1.5-2.5x are respectively termed the first, second, and third fractals.

In the 4-phase fractal series, the third fractal ends on a high or lower high valuation, whereas the first, second, and fourth fractals end on the lowest valuation of the fractal grouping. In a three phase series, all three fractals end on a low valuation. With the exception of the third fractal in a 4 phase fractal series, fractal groupings are determined by initial time unit low and the terminal time unit low. The second fractal in both the 4 phase and 3-phase fractal series has as its hallmark characteristic, a nonlinear lower low gap decline in the last 2x to 2.5x time frame of the series – identifiable on the daily, hourly, and minutely time scales and sometimes on the weekly scales in longer (monthly) fractal series.

With sequential unprecended QE started in March 2020 and thereafter unprecedented QT starting late 2021 The macroeconomic system’s equity valuations grew in a 8-9/24/24 month :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal fashion from March 2020 to August 2024 completing the first, second, and third fractals of a 4-phase series. A characteristic nonlinear lower low gap can be seen on a weekly basis during the second week of June 2022 during month 21 of the 24 month second fractal (between 2x and 2.5x of the 9 month base March 2020 first fractal).

There are two observable interpolated October 2023
Weekly and Daily First and Second Fractals identifiable by the asset-debt system’s second fractal nonlinear gapped lower lows terminal second fractal endings. 5 August 2024 represented the first interpolateds series low: 8 October 2024 is the second interpolated series Global Equity Crash Low. The elegantly simple self assembly fractal math with be shown in subsequent postings.

There is an undeniable observable elegance to the simple self assembly growth and decay of asset valuations within the global asset-debt macroeconomic system.

The two simple self ordering time-based fractal laws governing all growth and decay of the system’s asset valuations are: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x.

On the longest observable time scale in years, the US hegemony is following an 1807: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x yearly fractal series of 36/90/90/54 years ending in 2074 with lows in 1843-43 and 1932 and a (global) peak asset valuation in November 2021. This global peak is better understood if one considers inclusion of Chinese property valuation.

An interpolated US fractal series started in 1982 (of 13/32 years ending in 2025) commenced with the peak double-digit Volcker fed funds rates which have been lowered in a cascadingly ratcheted manner with near zero rates after the 2009 global property bubble collapse and recently fed fund increases since 2021 to combat inflation caused in the main, by excessive global Covid QE programs. The length of US 3 month Treasury minus 10 year inversion QT program now exceeds the length (and depth) of the inversion leading to 1929.

World Equity growth since the March 2020 covid lows have followed an elegant 8-9/24/24 month :: x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal ending July-August 2024. The monthly sub fractals (following the self-ordering laws defined above) composing the 8-9/24/24 month fractal are shown in the graph below.

The last 10-11 months of the 24 month third fractal of 5/10/10-11 months are shown below in a series of weekly fractals :: 13/30-33 weeks.

A 33 week second fractal can be observed to be a 5/10/13/8 week fractal ending 30 August 2024 with week 26 (2x) containing July 16 2024.

The final growth from 28 June 2024 to the peak of 16 July follows a 3/7/4 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x growth fractal. A reflexic 4 phase decay/decay/growth/crash decay fractal series of 6/13/12/9 days completes week 8 of the 33 week 5/10/13/8 week fractal series ending 30 August 2024. The July -August 2024 decay will be the beginning of a valuation decay process lasting 12 -15 months with substantial counter valuation growth fractals.

Kindly review the 19 August 2024 post. With the exception of third fractal growth in a 4-phase series, Fractal groupings are generally defined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit of the grouping with all values within the intervening time unit being above the nadir points.

The crash devaluation of the ACWI world index reached a nominal peak on 16 July 2016. This was day 125 of an October 2023 59/125 day first and second fractal series and week 26 of an analogous 13/26 week first and second series. for the second fractal, after a 17 Jan 2024 20/47/49 day series, the peak valuation occurred in a 28 June 3-/7/4 day :: x/2.5x/1.5x growth fashion.

Integratively and with incipient decay beginning near end growth the 7 day second fractal of the 3-/7/4 day final growth series became the base first fractal of a 3 July 7/18/16 day 3-phase crash decay sequence ending 26 August. Note that the 7/18/16 day decay series meets the criteria of fractal groupings.