Mr. Musk has opined that he may be living within a simulation. If there were a trillion of such simulations with slightly different starting conditions, this particular simulation is where all of the initial conditions and their entry timings have been set to one of worse possible coincidental combinations.

It is opinion of this blog that the timing of the growth and decay of composite equity valuations in the global asset-debt macroeconomic system is a deterministic self-assembly process following simple time-based fractal laws of growth and decay. Tariffs or not, the transpiring time-based fractal crash would have occurred. Chinese property owners suffering deflation and recession and American workers at their service sector wage, debt load, and inflation limits especially with respect to housing and rental cost, are at the base of a collapsing asset-debt cycle that has reached peak composite equity valuation in all international composite equity markets, the European STOXX being the last on 3 March 2025.

In following/observing the evolution of a 3 February 2025 SPX 4-phase 8/19/16 of 20/13 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x of 2.5x/ 1.5-1.6x terminal fractal growth and initial crash decay series: use the primer below:

Credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur; with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself.

Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series:

a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x

In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals.

The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.

With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

Today’s SPX close was day 16 (2x) of 20 days (2.5x) of the SPX 3rd fractal and represents the final lower high valuation of the 3rd fractal. With institution of tariffs tomorrow, the next 4 days of decay, which is an expected natural self-ordered process, will be attributed to the tariff policy. There should be a decent bounce after the 4 day decay, with a 4th fractal lower low in a total of an additional 12 to 13 days.

The decay portion of the 4 phase fractal series includes a summation fractals 2, 3, and 4 and do not include the initial (green colored) 8 day 1st fractal growth. The summation of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals: 19/20/13 days totals 50 days which represents the primary 1st base decay fractal in an approximate 4-phase 50/100/100/75-78 day :: x/2x/2x/1.5-1.6x fractal decay series ending in April-May of June 2026.

Add 1.6y or 13 days to the previous post’s predicted SPX incipient 3 February 2025 3-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y :: 8/19/20 day fractal decay series, and a 3 February 2025 4-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y/1.6y :: 8/19/20/13 day fractal decay series is the newly predicted incipient fractal crash series.

From Sunday March 30, there are 18 more trading days until an initial primary low valuation.

It is the opinion of this observer, that the timing of this initial 4-phase crash fractal series is at the end a major asset-debt credit cycle – and near the end of maximum SPX timed-based fractal growth, – i.e. from 27 October 2023 to the peak SPX valuation on 19 February 2025, a 55/139/136 day :: {x/2.5x/(nearly 2.5x)} maximum growth fractal series was completed.

The interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: 1st and 2nd fractal series is expected to have a nonlinear ending with a nadir in 2025 or 2026. See below.

The incipient crash will likely – and with wide-spread market experts’ post hoc ergo propter hoc logic – be attributed to the new administration’s radical and chaotic policy changes with regard to long-standing alliances, new interest in colonialism, new tariffs, habeas corpus suspensions, non merit-based cabinet selections, use of DOJ in vendetta prosecutions, non-congressional authorized governmental and institutional budget and personnel cuts, et. al.

The previous 3 February 2025 3-phase Crash decay fractal is shown below:

The 3 February 4-phase growth and decay fractal series : 8/19/20/13 days with peak valuation on 19 February and in the 19 day second fractal is shown below.

Please review the previous posting for a primer on the time-based fractal self-assembly laws of global asset-debt system.

Irving Fisher (1929) “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”.

The diversity in the respective evolutions of quantitative fractal valuation growth and decay of the European(STOXX 600), United States, Chinese including HangSeng, Japanese and Indian composite equities, which account for more than 85% percent of total global market equity share, allows the pinpointing the US composite equities primary incipient daily decay crash fractal series.

Over the last several weeks, this web site has presented several different incipient primary fractal decay models similar to the 12/29/27 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal series in 1929 with the 3 Sept (DJIA) 1929 peak valuation contained in the 29 day 2nd fractal.

The 1929 crash occurred near the terminal portion of an 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with nadir valuations in 1842-43 and 1932. 2nd fractals are characterized (as noted in the 2005 opening page) by nonlinear gapped lower lows. There was a 90% devaluation in the terminal portion of the 90 year 2nd fractal from its 1929 peak to its 1932 nadir valuation.

The 2025 crash will occur in an interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with lows in 1994 and a 2nd nonlinear low expected in 2025-2026 after its 19 Feb 2025 peak and in the terminal portion of its 32-33 year 2nd fratcal..

This 1982 interpolated fractal sequence is occurring in a 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series which is expected to end in 2074.


Below is a primer review of the fractal time-based laws of the self ordering asset-debt macroeconomy’s growth and decay valuations of its composite assets.

Credit expands, assets are produced and over-produced and overvalued and over-consumed; composite asset valuations reach a singular peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay, recessions occur, excess debt undergoes default and restructuring, and composite asset valuations reach a nadir. The cycle repeats itself.

Empirically the cycles occur in 2 mathematical time- ordered and self-organizing fractal series manners:

a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x

In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals.

The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped lower lows between the 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped lower lows can be seen in weekly units between 1929 and 1932 of the US 90 year 2nd fractal, before the 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low and can be expected within last few months of the 32-33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.)

With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with intervening valuation above the connecting nadir trend-line.

The recent incipient crash fractal series decay models provided over the last several week have all lacked the requirements defining fractal groupings as described above.

The final SPX growth series started on 27 October 2023 and was a 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth series peaking on 19 February 2025 akin to 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation.

The incipient crash 3-phase fractal decay series for the SPX is a 3 February 8/19/12 of 20 day :: y/2-2.5y/2.5y fractal decay series.

Like 1929 the peak valuation on 19 February 2025 is contained in the (19 day) 2nd fractal. Trend lines defining fractal groupings are consistent with this model.