The Great Initial 2025 Crash: The Original 2005 4-Phase Lammert Fractal Series Model

The 4-phase self-ordering time-unit based fractal model for composite equity asset valuation growth and decay was described in the last paragraph of the 2005 single Web page of The Economic Fractalist.

The original 4 phase model of time-unit based fractal cycles was expanded to a x/2x-2.5x/2x -2.5x/1.5-1.6x fractal series which describes the 1807 US 36/90/90/54-58 year large scale fractal cycle ending in the 2070’s. As well, a 3 phase fractal cycle of x/2x-2.5x/1.6x to 2x to 2.5x self assembles for interpolated sub cycle valuation growth and decay.

The operative interpolated fractal series is a 1982 13/32 of 33 year fractal series ending in 2026 which is part of a greater 13/33/33/18-20 years ending in the 2070’s.

All asset valuations including debt as an asset valuation are denominated in the totality of all asset classes. As debt is expanded linearly, growth occurs in a steady, similar linear fashion. As asset classes become overvalued and overproduced relative to owed accumulated debt and total laborers and their total wages needed to support that debt, a nonlinear unraveling of the total asset worth occurs at the asset-debt system’s peak asset valuation intermittent saturation points.

The current 4-phase fractal model appears identical to the originally- described 2005 model.



Two Lammert fractal models: both endiing with an initial 20 November 2025 Crash Nadir ….

There are two operative Lammert fractal models using underlying low valuation trendlines to define fractal groupings. The European STOXX 600 is showing a technical final sharply higher blow-off to a new all-time high. Likewise the Nikkei, which appears to following a 7 April to 7 October 2025 21/53/52 of 53 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal blow-off series.



The MSCI world index composite is self-assembling, using the underlying trendlines, in a highly ordered Lammert fractal growth pattern since 7 April 2025. There are two models of interest: a 2 phase fractal series and a 4-phase fractal series … both ending with an initial crash nadir on November 20, 2025 plus or minus a few days.