Mr. Musk has opined that he may be living within a simulation. If there were a trillion of such simulations with slightly different starting conditions, this particular simulation is where all of the initial conditions and their entry timings have been set to one of worse possible coincidental combinations.

It is opinion of this blog that the timing of the growth and decay of composite equity valuations in the global asset-debt macroeconomic system is a deterministic self-assembly process following simple time-based fractal laws of growth and decay. Tariffs or not, the transpiring time-based fractal crash would have occurred. Chinese property owners suffering deflation and recession and American workers at their service sector wage, debt load, and inflation limits especially with respect to housing and rental cost, are at the base of a collapsing asset-debt cycle that has reached peak composite equity valuation in all international composite equity markets, the European STOXX being the last on 3 March 2025.

In following/observing the evolution of a 3 February 2025 SPX 4-phase 8/19/16 of 20/13 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x of 2.5x/ 1.5-1.6x terminal fractal growth and initial crash decay series: use the primer below:

Credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur; with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself.

Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series:

a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x

In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals.

The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.

With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

Today’s SPX close was day 16 (2x) of 20 days (2.5x) of the SPX 3rd fractal and represents the final lower high valuation of the 3rd fractal. With institution of tariffs tomorrow, the next 4 days of decay, which is an expected natural self-ordered process, will be attributed to the tariff policy. There should be a decent bounce after the 4 day decay, with a 4th fractal lower low in a total of an additional 12 to 13 days.

The decay portion of the 4 phase fractal series includes a summation fractals 2, 3, and 4 and do not include the initial (green colored) 8 day 1st fractal growth. The summation of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals: 19/20/13 days totals 50 days which represents the primary 1st base decay fractal in an approximate 4-phase 50/100/100/75-78 day :: x/2x/2x/1.5-1.6x fractal decay series ending in April-May of June 2026.