The Great Nonlinear 1987-Like Valuation Collapse of Global Composite Equities and Commodities of the 1932 US 89 Year Great Third Fractal: From the December 2018 Low: x/2-2.5x/2-2.x/1.5x :: 11/26/26/15 of 16 weeks

The  Case for the Observational Fractal Science of Quantitative Asset Debt Saturation Macroeconomics

From the December 2018 Composite Equity nadir valuation low: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5y :: 11/26/26/15 of 16 weeks : on a daily basis nonlinearity can be observed between the 22nd and 23rd week of the second 26 week fractal. (see main page regarding second fractal nonlinearity)

This correlates to 3/7/7/4 of 5 months.  On a daily basis for the CRB, the fractal progression is 5/11/10/4 of 7 days.  An 1987 like collapse is expected over the next three trading days.

This web site makes  the observation  that the asset debt economic  system is mechanistic and quantitative in its nature following simple growth and decay fractal valuation patterns  so precise that ‘the mathematical laws’ and ‘self assembly’ of asset valuation  growth and decay are similar to physics and chemistry and biology.

 Asset Debt Saturation Macroeconomics likewise has the quality and property of a science.

The simple ever recurring and easily observed quantitative fractal ‘mathematical laws’ determined by the nadir asset valuation are:(y connotes final valuation low for the individual fractal series pattern)



and x/2-2.5x/1.5 to 2.5y 

(the second fractal length of 2-2.5x determines the ideal base first fractal length; the third fractal is a 1.5 multiple of this ideal base.

Qualitatively, the facilitated creation of excessive debt leads to overvaluation, overproduction, and over-ownership of assets. The system is self correcting with liquidation of bad debt and a lower re-equilibrium of asset valuations with a lower total denominator of composite system wealth near the nadir of bad debt liquidation and lower asset composite valuation. 

All individual asset valuations are denominated in first time derivative of the composite of all other valuations.

The fractal mathematical laws  of the composite asset valuations of the asset debt system are elegantly simple. 

While Central Banks’ interventions can cause observational rises of subfractal components, the fractal grouping patterns are still there.

In fact the observational patterns show the direct effect of central bank intervention. 

The US  Hegemonic Asset Debt Macroeconomic  grand Fractal series had an initiating fractal base of about 18 years near the initiation of its constitution in 1790.

The  first fractal started in 1807-8 and ended after the panic of 1837 in 1842-43 for a base fractal of 36 years. Its 90 year second fractal ended with nadir composite equity valuations in  1932.  Its 89 year third fractal is expected to end very shortly (three trading days) in 2020.  A fourth fractal is expected to end in 2074. (1.5y) The US 54 year fourth fractal will be supported with necessary debt creation. 

A Look at the 1982 second subfractal series: 9/20/12 year :: x/2-2.5x/1.5y concluding US 1932 third fractal series:

The monthly fractal progression of US composite Equities from the low in 2003 was made of two fractal series: 6/13/15/10 months :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.6y and a decay fractal of x/2-2.5x/1.5y : 9/20/12 months: The ideal base of a second 20 month fractal is 8 months with 1.5 times 8 months yielding a 12 month third fractal.

What was the composite equity and CRB valuation  fractal effect of the global Central Bank intervention  on the 2008-2009 collapse? The 2/5/5/3 month fractal series composing the 12 month  third decay fractal begins a valuation climb in March 2009 at the beginning of  its third 5 month fractal.

Note the  x/2-2.5x/1.5y fractal similarity of the 1982 9/20/12 year fractal series (completing the 89 year US Third Fractal) to the 9/20/12 month fractal series completing the second 20 year subfractal series which started in 1990. 

Sans global  central Bank coordinated intervention, the expected unassisted starting point for the observed March 2009  composite  nadir was at the end of the 2/5/5/3 month natural self assembly fractal series or September 2009

From the expected September 2009 low (unassisted by Central Bank assumption of toxic debt and collaborative interCentral bank money printing and  interbank borrowing),  the two monthly subfractal series –  2/5/4/3 and 3/7/8 months ::  x/2.5x/2x/1.5y and x/2-2.5x/2-2.5y, respectively – make up a 26 month base first fractal sequence of the final 12 year third subfractal.

The final 12 year third fractal sequence of the 1982  9/20/12 year :: x/2-2.5x/1.5y decay fractal series (this second fractal subseries follow a 1932 10-11/21/21-22 53 year  first fractal subseries ) is composed of 26/53/52 of 53 months. (x/2-2.5x/2-2.5y)

The second 53 month subfractal of the 26/53/52 of 53 series is composed of two fractal subseries 3/7/6 months and 8/17/17 months (x/2-2.5x/2.5x both subseries)

The third 52 of 53 month series is composed of 10/26/18 of 19 months.  The integrative final series is 10/25/20 months)

The first 10 month fractal is composed of a 2/4/4/3 month series; the second 26 month fractal is composed of a 5/11/11 month series, and the third 19 month series a 3/7/7/4 of 5 months series.

The patterned asset composite valuation activity of the  Asset Debt macroeconomic system is directly observational and is indisputable. What causes the ideal self assembly of mathematically precise  fractal asset valuation  growth and decay patterns?

What causes the  mathematical laws and derived numerical constants of physics and the naturally occurring  self assembly of subatomic particles, atomic particles, molecules, plant and animal embryological development, stars, solar systems, galaxies and the universe? 

The observational  self assembly highly patterned fractals defining the counterbalancing growth and decay of valuations of composite assets composing the asset debt macroeconomic system  confers upon that macroeconomic  system the properties of a science.


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