22 August 2023: Completed: day 3 of the 13 day Subfractal Three: the 27 July 2023 Wilshire 5/13/13 Day 3 phase decay series Analogous to the Aug to November 1929 11/26/28 day 3 phase decay series: Asset-Debt Saturation Macroeconomics

There are only two elegantly simple laws of time-based  fractal asset-debt macroeconomics: 

While money and credit growth (and contraction)by central banks and government spending is periodically irregular, equity and commodity composite valuations grow and decay by only two distinct  time-based fractal patterns(mathematical laws): a three phase pattern: composed of three subfractals:1/2/ and 3  ::  x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x – where x is the base first fractal time length in days, weeks, months, and years.

and a four phase pattern: composed of 4 subfractals: 1/2/3/ and 4  :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x, where x is the base first fractal time length in days, weeks, months, and years.   

The time length of subfractal 2 (2-2.5x) of the 3 and 4 phase fractal series often determines the ideal time length of subfractal 1 : (x’) upon which the lengths of sub-fractals 3 and 4 are based: e.g., the 4 phase  fractal pattern’s time lengths become x/(2-2.5x divided by 2.5 = x’)/2-2.5x’/1.5-1.6x’.

Using the Wilshire 5000, 31 July 2020, the Wilshire’s secondary high to its 8 November 2021 high was day 36 of subfractal three of a 18/44/36 day blow-off growth fractal series starting 13 March 2023.

For an ideal 4 phase fractal series of x/2.5x/2x/1.5x, the length
of subfractal four would equal 27 days, 1.5 times subfractal one, 18 days.

Decay starts in finale of growth valuation saturation.
A decay fractal series starting 27 July 2023 , which includes the peak on day 36, 31 July 2023 of 5/13/13 days would complete a three phase fractal and complete a subfractal four 27 day peak to nadir valuation process.

Subfractal two of this decay series lasted 13 days and is composed of a 3/6/6 day fractal.

Subfractal three of the 5/13/13 day series started on 18 August and completed day 3 of 13 days. Day 3 may have completed subfractal three’s maximal saturation growth. Using 30 minute fractals, two fractal series are observed: an 18 August 4 phase fractal series of 3/6/7/5 units followed by a 5/11/7 of 8 unit x/2-2.5 / 1.5-1.6x (final peak growth.) Like subfractal two, a 3/6/6 day three phase decay series for subfractal three seems likely.

Notice the tangent slope lines touching the lowest valuations of day 1 and day 5 of the 5 day subfractal one vice day 1 and day 13 of the 13 day subfractal two. The rate of deterioration is increasing.

If this model is correct, the slope of the 13 day subfractal 3 will be significantly and nonlinearly down.

The 27 July 2023 three phase 5/13/13 day decay fractal series is proportionally similar to the August-November 1929 11/26/28 day :: 3/7/7 week three phase incipient decay fractal series.

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