Updated Friday 17 March 0545 EST
The US hegemony is undergoing an 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Asset/Debt Macroeconomic Great Fractal Series ending in 2074 with nadir valuation lows in 1842/43, 1932, and 2074 and a 90 year third fractal high in November 2021.
The terminal 4 phase fractal daily series for an interpolated 1981/82 13/31-33 years first and second series began with the SPX/Wilshire average low valuation on 12 October 2022 and will end on 30 March 2023 with nonlinear lower low devaluations over the last days of next 10 trading days involving equities, commodities, gold, and crypto and nonlinear elevations of US debt instrument valuations (lower interest rates) as money flows from equities into treasuries.
Banking Bad Debt Failure and Associated Derivatives
While the US regional banks were lending to risky tech and start-ups, both the big banks and regional banks bought large amounts of US debt instruments when the yields were near zero. When the Fed and other central banks raised rates by 3-5 % over the last 11 month period. the value of those previously acquired bonds/treasuries plummeted. US and European banks on paper have lost 100’s of billions of dollars.
Beneath the surface of the external financial news, tens to hundreds of trillion of dollars of counter-party derivative positions are now unwinding. That is the explanation for the coming possible 1987 type of nonlinear crash over the last of the next 10 trading days.
Central banks will be the lender of last resort to distress banks. The rub of QE/money printing central bank caused consumer price inflation which will then be remedied by QT interest rate hikes causing massive losses on earlier acquired long term debt instrument will be a cyclical feature of the 54 year 4th Fractal.
The Fed is in a conundrum for the March fed funds adjustments. They will either stand pat or raise the rates by 0.25%. The manufacturing index is plummeting consistent with the substantial coming recession. The central banks will be blamed for their poorly managed and timed QE/QT programs which are the only tools available to maintain the current unbalanced macroeconomic system. .