{"id":7423,"date":"2026-10-31T08:53:31","date_gmt":"2026-10-31T08:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/?p=7423"},"modified":"2026-11-01T18:21:51","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T18:21:51","slug":"not-1929-3-november-is-19-october-1987","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/2026\/10\/31\/not-1929-3-november-is-19-october-1987\/","title":{"rendered":"3 November 2026: A Replay of 19 October 1987"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/SPX-3-Nov-crash-Nadir.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"825\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/SPX-3-Nov-crash-Nadir-1024x825.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7437\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/SPX-3-Nov-crash-Nadir-1024x825.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/SPX-3-Nov-crash-Nadir-300x242.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/SPX-3-Nov-crash-Nadir-768x619.png 768w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/SPX-3-Nov-crash-Nadir.png 1205w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Baby Can I Hold You Tonight - Pavarotti and Tracy Chapman Live\" width=\"474\" height=\"356\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/qQdnl0_IuRg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Nasdaq-futures-new.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"766\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Nasdaq-futures-new-1024x766.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7436\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Nasdaq-futures-new-1024x766.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Nasdaq-futures-new-300x224.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Nasdaq-futures-new-768x575.png 768w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Nasdaq-futures-new.png 1422w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nasdaq-100-new-not-futures.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nasdaq-100-new-not-futures-1024x700.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7432\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nasdaq-100-new-not-futures-1024x700.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nasdaq-100-new-not-futures-300x205.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nasdaq-100-new-not-futures-768x525.png 768w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nasdaq-100-new-not-futures-1536x1050.png 1536w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nasdaq-100-new-not-futures.png 1569w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1932-to-present-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"893\" height=\"721\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1932-to-present-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7439\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1932-to-present-2.png 893w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1932-to-present-2-300x242.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1932-to-present-2-768x620.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 893px) 100vw, 893px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Does the US and global asset-debt macro-economy deterministically self order, self-assemble its asset valuations in precise growth patterns to governmental-and-private-debt dependent asset peak valuations and thereafter collapse in a highly predictable manner following two elegantly simple, time-based fractal patterns?<br><br>The world is coming to a 19 Oct 1987-like nonlinear crash event. By the current Lammert fractal model, that nonlinear gapped lower low valuation crash will come on 3 Nov 2026, election day, held to a 20% loss for the day by trading halts. The 3 November 2026 SPX nonlinear gapped lower low valuation will represent the most characterizing portion of a terminal 2nd fractal occurrence at the extreme end of a 33 year 2nd Fractal of a 13\/33 year : : x\/2.5x 1st and 2nd Fractal Series starting in 1982 and peaking 6 October 2026. A nonlinear 2nd Fractal Crash could have occurred anywhere in the 2x to 2.5x :: 26-33 year terminal portion of the 33 year 2nd fractal. With unprecedented peacetime US governmental deficit to GDP annual spending of 5.8-14.9% from 2020 to 2026 and with recent massive private debt expansion for AI\/chips\/data-centers, the SPX peak on 6 October 2026 occurred near the maximum 26-33 year :: 2x-2.5x fractal growth time duration. Unlike 19 Oct 1987, which occurred in a long robust growth and credit expansion period, 3 Nov 2026 will occur under the umbrella of an ongoing enormous private bad-debt-dependent collapse.<br><br>64% of global currency debt is denominated in US dollars. Gold, bitcoin, US, and world equities will undergo an initial nonlinear valuation collapse on 3 Nov 2026, followed by further liquidation of assets in a market response to repay private dollar-denominated debt.<br><br>Silver, was down about 6% today on Friday 30 Oct and 72 dollars from its 121 USD peak in late Jan 2026. That 58-59% loss provides qualitative bell weather guidance to the ongoing direction of asset valuations \u2013 with the notable exception of US sovereign debt whose purchase at 5.3-5.7% in early October (near the SPX 6 Oct 2026 peak) will be realized as a most prudent investment.<br><br><strong>1929<\/strong><br><br>The SPX initial 4-phase crash decay fractal series from the 3 Sept 1929 peak was a 7\/18\/18\/10 day :: y\/2.5y\/2.5y\/1.5y Lammert 4-phase crash fractal decay series ending with a nadir on 13 Nov 1929. (Stocks traded on Saturdays in 1929).<br><br><strong>3 Nov 2026: A Replay of 19 Oct 1987  &#8216;Current Lammert Fractal Model<\/strong>&#8216;<br><br>The SPX terminal fractal growth from the 30 March 2026 low was a 25\/60\/49 day :: x\/2-2.5x\/2-2.5x\u2019 series with a peak valuation on 6 October. The Nasdaq containing over-invested over-valued AI-related stocks showed an opening gapped blow-off on 6 Oct 2026, higher than all previous 33 year valuations and ending on the low of the day, technically very characteristic of a conclusive peak valuation. The SPX final lower lower high occurred on 14 October extending the 30 Mar 2026 terminal 3-phase fractal growth series to 25\/60\/54 days :: x\/2-2.5x\/2-2.5x followed by a curvilinear 3\/6\/4-5 day :: x\/2x\/1.5x fractal series reaching a final lower lower high on 28-29 Oct 2026 day 4-5 of the 3\/6\/5 day series. A nonlinear lower low gap occurred between 29 October\u2019s close and 30 October\u2019s opening demarcating terminal lower high valuation from an imminent crash decay.<br><br>A 14 October 2026 3-phase 3\/6\/8 day :: xy\/2xy\/2.5xy :: 3 day decay\/ 6 day slower decay\/ terminal 4-5 day lower lower high growth, and a terminal day 6, 7,and 8 crash decay series would result in a crash nadir on 3 November 2026. If US equity trading is halted at 20%; the final nadir will be on 4 or 5 November 2026, but the 7 1\/2 hours per the 3 November trading day distributed over those 2-3 halted trading days would likely be conserved.<br><br><strong>SPX 33 Year 2nd Fractal Lower Low Gapped Nonlinearity on Monthly Charts<\/strong><br><br>The 33 year SPX 2nd fractal nonlinearity of the 1982 13\/33 year :: x\/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with a 2nd fractal characteristic gapped lower low on 3 November 2026 will likely be apparent, retrospectively, on SPX monthly charts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1929 and 2026 Peak to Nadir Valuations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The SPX 3 Sept 1929 peak to the 8 July 1932 nadir valuation terminated an 1807 36\/90 year :: x\/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series and occurred over about 33 months. The SPX  6 Oct 2026 peak valuation to its final nadir valuation concluding a 1982 13\/33-34 year :: x\/2.5x 1st and 2nd Fractal series will occur over a much shorter tome frame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Big Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US is operating under a 1807 36\/90\/90\/54-57 year :: x\/2.5x\/2.5x\/1.5-1.6x 4-phase Lammert fractal series with the 1982 13\/33-34 year :: x\/2.5x fractal series representing an interpolated fractal series within the larger 1807 fractal series.  A 1807 36\/90\/90 year :: x\/2.5x\/2.5x interpolated 90 year 3rd Fractal peak occurred in Nov 2021. SPX valuation was propelled higher to reach a peak on 6 Oct 2026 by historically large US governmental deficit to GDP annual spending and recently enormous private debt credit expansion for AI\/ chips\/LLM\/data centers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Does the US and global asset-debt macro-economy deterministically self order, self-assemble its asset valuations in precise growth patterns to governmental-and-private-debt dependent asset peak valuations and thereafter collapse in a highly predictable manner following two elegantly simple, time-based fractal patterns? The world is coming to a 19 Oct 1987-like nonlinear crash event. By the current Lammert &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/2026\/10\/31\/not-1929-3-november-is-19-october-1987\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">3 November 2026: A Replay of 19 October 1987<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7423"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7423\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7447,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7423\/revisions\/7447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}