Below is the final posting in 2006. This posting was lost in the conversion to the 2012 web.<\/p>\n
It is an important posting because it sets the parameters for proving that the debt and countervailing asset macroeconomic system has the self-organizing, self assembly, and patterned quantum mathematical evolving behavior that equals the self assembly, self organization, and patterned quantum mathematical behavior of subatomic and classical physics, of chemistry, of\u00a0 microbiology, and of embryology.<\/p>\n
Debt-asset Saturation Macroeconomics is a patterned science.<\/p>\n
Daily Update<\/strong><\/p>\n 19 October 06<\/strong><\/p>\n A Final Posting<\/strong><\/p>\n Saturation Macroeconomics and Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis- A Real Science?<\/strong><\/p>\n November 24 2006 – Day 398 of a 159\/398\/398 –<\/strong> Perhaps GM points the way afterall; as GM goes, so goes ….<\/strong> From AdamSmithhee:August 24, 2005<\/strong><\/p>\n Brad and Angelina Love Triangle Shocker<\/strong><\/p>\n Brad Pitt, former faithless husband of Jennifer Aniston, may be<\/strong> August 24, 2005 in People | Permalink<\/strong><\/p>\n Comments<\/strong><\/p>\n Limited<\/strong><\/p>\n I am riding on a limited express, one of the crack trains<\/strong> Kindly visit the Economic Fractalist http:\/\/www.economicfractalist .com\/<\/strong><\/p>\n Posted by: gary lammert | August 24, 2005 at 09:59 AM<\/strong><\/p>\n The above comment probably deserves to be nixed as spam, but for those<\/strong> Posted by: Adamsmithee | August 24, 2005 at 11:53 AM<\/strong><\/p>\n More nutty-theoried pseudo-scientific gobbledygook……<\/strong><\/p>\n From The Economic Fractalist.. 25 August 2005 posting…<\/strong><\/p>\n Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis – A Real Science?<\/strong><\/p>\n In order to qualify as a true science, the subject entity must be<\/strong> Valuation fractals represent a composite integration of primarily six<\/strong> There are three sequential identified ideal growth fractals followed<\/strong> Just as the complex system is an integrative process, valuation<\/strong> The subsequent growth fractals dating from August 2004 likewise have<\/strong> What are the rate limiting factors that result in growth saturation<\/strong> Assets have two important elements: relative valuations and saturation<\/strong> Ongoing wages and just as important the jobs that support those wages<\/strong> Lending practices and prevailing interesting rates, the latter a<\/strong> Ongoing debt load and the requirement to service that debt diminishes<\/strong> Cash is the money that is represented by greenbacks in circulation and<\/strong>
\n ideal X\/2.5X\/2.5X Maxium Growth Fractal…..<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n November 24, 2006 is day 58 of a 29\/73\/58 X\/2.5X\/2X GM Growth Fractal.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n getting a taste of his own medicine. It used to be that Brad, himself<\/strong>
\n a tireless campaigner for development, would cozy up with Angelina<\/strong>
\n during breaks on her tours of Africa. But now she’s traveling around<\/strong>
\n the continent with a new boy-toy, Jeff Sachs. Not to be outdone, the<\/strong>
\n anti-Sachs Bill Easterly has been appearing on MTV wearing a cool<\/strong>
\n black t-shirt, perhaps hoping he’ll get picked up by Jessica Simpson,<\/strong>
\n “GOP Babe of the Week” and noted aid skeptic. A surprising number of<\/strong>
\n development economists (i.e., more than zero) do turn out to be<\/strong>
\n stylish lotharios. Nonetheless, all the “Elvis of Economics” got to<\/strong>
\n travel with was a grizzled Irishman.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n of the nation.<\/strong>
\n Hurtling across the prairie into blue haze and dark air<\/strong>
\n go fifteen all-steel coaches holding a thousand people.<\/strong>
\n (All the coaches shall be scrap and rust and all the men<\/strong>
\n and women laughing in the diners and sleepers shall<\/strong>
\n pass to ashes.)<\/strong>
\n I ask a man in the smoker where he is going and he<\/strong>
\n answers: “Omaha.”<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n who like their nutty theories dressed up in pseudo-scientific<\/strong>
\n gobbledygook, the linked site is almost as good as anything by Laffer:<\/strong>
\n “This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability<\/strong>
\n of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a<\/strong>
\n grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the<\/strong>
\n masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and<\/strong>
\n very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal<\/strong>
\n and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt<\/strong>
\n obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate<\/strong>
\n and monetary policy.”<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n testable by scientific method and have underlying laws that operate in<\/strong>
\n the real physical environment. These laws must be repetitively<\/strong>
\n provable and have reasonable predictability for different<\/strong>
\n applications. Scientific testing in college biology, chemistry, and<\/strong>
\n physics laboratories usually results in<\/strong>
\n experimental values that roughly support the underlying mathematical<\/strong>
\n equations and theoretical constructs. If indeed complex economic<\/strong>
\n systems travel by the simple quantum laws that observational fractal<\/strong>
\n analysis suggests, a similar validity should be testable and provable,<\/strong>
\n retrospectively and prospectively, in the great laboratory of readily<\/strong>
\n obtainable asset valuation saturation curves.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n elements in the complex economic system: cash and savings; total<\/strong>
\n private, corporation and governmental debt load; ongoing wages;<\/strong>
\n assets; lending<\/strong>
\n practices; and prevailing interest rates. Each of these six broad<\/strong>
\n parameters has its own complex internal dynamics and summation<\/strong>
\n characteristics. In a very mechanistic fashion, following simple<\/strong>
\n near-quantum and near-quantum<\/strong>
\n related Fibonacci numbers, valuation fractals ‘grow’ to buying<\/strong>
\n saturation levels and thereafter ‘decay’ to lower selling saturation<\/strong>
\n levels. The fundamental point to this new potential economic science<\/strong>
\n is that the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly valuation fractals<\/strong>
\n represent the sum total integration of those six elements and their<\/strong>
\n complex interactive relationships. Pour into the economic vat: cash<\/strong>
\n for daily transactions, savings available for money to be borrowed at<\/strong>
\n given interest rates using<\/strong>
\n prevailing lending practices for both major purchases and minor credit<\/strong>
\n card purchases, balanced by on-going wages and debt servicing<\/strong>
\n obligations, balanced by relative valuation of assets and their<\/strong>
\n relative state of consumption, mix it up on a daily, weekly, etc.<\/strong>
\n basis – and – from the vat flows forth the daily, weekly, etc.<\/strong>
\n summation saturation curves dancing to a<\/strong>
\n rather precise near quantum fractal tune. While lower order time unit<\/strong>
\n fractals such as minutes and hours represent trading valuation<\/strong>
\n saturation points, intermediate fractals represent the larger picture<\/strong>
\n of on going velocity of money growth percolating through the system.<\/strong>
\n The higher order or 4-yearly, 17-18 yearly and 70 year fractals<\/strong>
\n represent both business cycle<\/strong>
\n and asset and debt saturation levels at the basic consumer level.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n by a decay fractal. The near quantum number time units for the three<\/strong>
\n cycles are x, 2-2.5x and 2x, respectively. A nonlinear devaluation<\/strong>
\n typically characterizes the second growth fractal somewhere between<\/strong>
\n the 2x and 2.5x<\/strong>
\n time period. The third growth fractal which ideally is 2x in length<\/strong>
\n can have an extension to 2.5x. This extension of the third growth<\/strong>
\n fractal has characterized both the current US equity and heavily<\/strong>
\n invested commodity areas, particularly oil and gold, for the entire<\/strong>
\n 128 week duration of the March 2000 secondary growth period.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n fractals which exactly represent them are likewise composite<\/strong>
\n integrations with nonlinear capacitor like decay devaluations.<\/strong>
\n Fractals incorporate the terminal portion of the preceding decay<\/strong>
\n fractal into the beginning of the<\/strong>
\n follow-on growth fractal. An elegant pristine example of this rolling<\/strong>
\n integration was the 40\/100\/100 day cycle exactly x\/2.5x\/2.5x that<\/strong>
\n resulted in the March 2005 top(((an errror of statement -the January 05<\/strong>
\n top))) for the DJIA. The first two fractals were ‘declining’ growth<\/strong>
\n fractals with a very characteristic nonlinear break at the end of the<\/strong>
\n second fractal in August 2004. That second fractal was likewise<\/strong>
\n elegant in its evolution in that it was composed of a 29\/72 day x\/2.5x<\/strong>
\n sub fractal sequence. The probability that these precise sequences are<\/strong>
\n random numerical sequential events approaches zero and elevates<\/strong>
\n fractal analysis, reciprocally, to a high probability real science<\/strong>
\n descriptive of the comple macro economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n followed the same very precise fractal growth evolution with a 52\/130<\/strong>
\n (x\/2.5x) day first and second fractal growth sequence with the typical<\/strong>
\n nonlinear drop between 2x and 2.5x of the second fractal. Anyone can<\/strong>
\n verify this pattern using any of the major US or European indices. The<\/strong>
\n third<\/strong>
\n fractal US equity sequence has been a 12\/30-31\/28 day sequence,<\/strong>
\n approaching the extended ideal form of x\/2.5x\/2.5x growth pattern. The<\/strong>
\n major European indices ,e.g., the FTSE, DAX, and CAC have a slightly<\/strong>
\n different mix of the<\/strong>
\n six aforementioned underlying elements and have extended their growth<\/strong>
\n – but are still confined within the 52\/130\/104 theoretical maximum and<\/strong>
\n the theoretical Fibonacci maximum of 52\/130\/(1.62 X 52 = 84-85)days.<\/strong>
\n These recurrent numerically ideal patterns since August 2004 once<\/strong>
\n again lend substantial credibility to the notion that the complex<\/strong>
\n macroeconomy operates according to some relatively precise laws of<\/strong>
\n fractal<\/strong>
\n design.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n points or asymptotes, decay selling saturation points or asymptotes,<\/strong>
\n and the general nature of fractal patterning? Each of the six<\/strong>
\n controlling parameters- assets, ongoing wages, lending practices,<\/strong>
\n prevailing interest rates, debt load, and cash and savings –<\/strong>
\n contribute to the saturation areas.<\/strong>
\n Some are more important than others in determining cycle lengths and<\/strong>
\n saturation points.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n ownership. If the valuation becomes too high or too overly consumed,<\/strong>
\n demand will decease. The timing for this decrease is exactly<\/strong>
\n represented by an asymptotic valuation saturation level or a single<\/strong>
\n high valuation point<\/strong>
\n followed by lower valuations. The valuation curves provide precise<\/strong>
\n ‘barometric’ information on instantaneous demand relative to valuation<\/strong>
\n level and relative to the consumption level. Some assets such as gas<\/strong>
\n and oil must be purchased to maintain livelihood. As global<\/strong>
\n consumption for the this<\/strong>
\n finite resource increases, resulting price increases squeeze the null<\/strong>
\n saving US consumer, far too many living from paycheck to paycheck, to<\/strong>
\n the financial breakpoint. Unnecessarily expensive US healthcare, 25<\/strong>
\n percent of the value of which goes to third party insurers and the<\/strong>
\n non-value added bill<\/strong>
\n collection system, can be considered yet another consumable asset,<\/strong>
\n that, like ‘uninsured equivalent’ gasoline prices, is driving many to<\/strong>
\n insolvency.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n are perhaps the most important rate limiting factor in determining<\/strong>
\n valuation saturation points. In the US jobs sphere, high paying<\/strong>
\n manufacturing jobs with the exception of the housing industry have<\/strong>
\n been significantly<\/strong>
\n outsourced. As the housing bubble crests, overcapacity will become<\/strong>
\n evident and high paying home construction jobs will contract. A<\/strong>
\n considerable subset of jobs in America have questionable value-added<\/strong>
\n real economic worth and<\/strong>
\n will be lightened during consumer retrenchment. It is easy to image<\/strong>
\n using the 1930’s as a template of a positive feedback contracting<\/strong>
\n system, whereby decreased ,e.g., construction jobs leads to decreased<\/strong>
\n consumer spending which<\/strong>
\n leads to further job contraction in other nonessential service areas<\/strong>
\n which leads to further spending contraction and so forth.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n Federal Reserve controlled parameter, work in synergy to foster money<\/strong>
\n creation and asset inflation. Fractional reserve lending practices<\/strong>
\n amplify the bank and money market savings used as a reserve base for<\/strong>
\n lending. Extremely low interest rates, i.e., a Fed fund rate of 1<\/strong>
\n percent coupled with a lending practice of LIBOR type loans, no money<\/strong>
\n down and interest only payments<\/strong>
\n creates the interesting situation in which the interest cost of money<\/strong>
\n is far below the real asset inflation rate. Not to borrow is to lose<\/strong>
\n money that would be made with the expected inflation. Conversely,<\/strong>
\n saving money under these interest rate and lending practice guidelines<\/strong>
\n results in loss of purchasing power. Credit card interest rates<\/strong>
\n reflect the needed higher<\/strong>
\n interest rates to overcome the default rate. The last year of higher<\/strong>
\n Fed Fund interest rates have resulted in both increased mortgage<\/strong>
\n payments and decreased bank profitability secondary to the contracting<\/strong>
\n spread of long term verses short term interest rates.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n cash available for asset consumption and investment. Percentage wise<\/strong>
\n the total debt load relative to wages and GDP has had relatively small<\/strong>
\n incremental<\/strong>
\n increases – a fact which has mistakenly reassured many linear thinking<\/strong>
\n economists. Debt load becomes very important and a primary factor in<\/strong>
\n the fractal decay process, where assets are liquated in an attempt to<\/strong>
\n pay down debt. Because debt is in a major way based on the value of<\/strong>
\n the asset, debt<\/strong>
\n load becomes relatively greater with ongoing declining asset values.<\/strong>
\n This process also represent a positive feedback system and is self<\/strong>
\n perpetuating. It results in a mechanistic devaluation and deflationary<\/strong>
\n process, lowering the value of nearly all non cash or non-cash<\/strong>
\n equivalent assets.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n greenback equivalent readily convertible debt instruments such as<\/strong>
\n treasuries, notes, bonds, bank deposits, and money market funds. In<\/strong>
\n short cash represents the dollars in circulation and savings. The<\/strong>
\n savings rate,<\/strong>
\n which the Federal Reserve has bemoaned to be dangerously low and was<\/strong>
\n reported to be zero in July, reflects the competition of the the<\/strong>
\n various Investment areas. With interest rates below the real(which<\/strong>
\n includes housing) asset inflation rates, deposited money in saving<\/strong>
\n instruments loses its purchasing power value each week that it is<\/strong>
\n malinvested in the bank or<\/strong>
\n interest bearing cash equivalent instruments. Deposited money in<\/strong>
\n saving instruments has been generally a bad investment in the last few<\/strong>
\n years.<\/strong>
\n During the decay fractal process, this scenario will be reversed with<\/strong>
\n money from ongoing asset liquidation flowing into cash and cash<\/strong>