{"id":6365,"date":"2025-07-14T20:14:53","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T20:14:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/?p=6365"},"modified":"2025-07-14T22:12:44","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T22:12:44","slug":"after-the-16-july-2025-acwi-global-equity-valuation-peak-a-crash-devaluation-will-occur-over-4-5-weeks-the-fractal-progression-of-a-us-real-estate-composite-proxy-vnq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/2025\/07\/14\/after-the-16-july-2025-acwi-global-equity-valuation-peak-a-crash-devaluation-will-occur-over-4-5-weeks-the-fractal-progression-of-a-us-real-estate-composite-proxy-vnq\/","title":{"rendered":"After the 15 July 2025 ACWI Global Equity Valuation Peak or Secondary High Peak, A Crash Devaluation Will Occur Over 18 trading days &#8230; The Fractal Progression of a US Real Estate Composite Proxy: VNQ &#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Playing For Change  - La Bamba\" width=\"474\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/mWaxkdHfYzI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Buffet indicator, total equity market cap to GNP, shows equity valuations are at a historical bubble high at about 208%. This is especially remarkable because of the relatively high ten year US Note interest yields.<br><br>In April the last reported  S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index was 329.608, also a historical high valuation, in spite of relatively high mortgage rates .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From its 7 April 2025 nadir valuation, ACWI, the global equity composite proxy, is following a 10\/25\/20 day :: x\/2.5x\/2x 3-phase fractal series followed by a 3\/8\/7 day x\/2.5x\/2.5x final blow-off ending with a targeted all-time peak (or secondary peak to the current 10 July peak) valuation on 15 July 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AXWI-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"664\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AXWI-2-1024x664.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6381\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AXWI-2-1024x664.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AXWI-2-300x195.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AXWI-2-768x498.png 768w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AXWI-2.png 1351w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>From this  15 July 2025 historical global peak or secondary peak valuation, a historical initial crash devaluation will occur over 18 trading days  completing a 19 February  2025 prior high 34 day (x) (5\/13\/12\/7day) \/ \/7 April 68 day 15 July 2025 peak (2x) and 85 day 2.5x nadir  34\/85 day 1st and 2nd  fractal series.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/spx-di.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"548\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/spx-di-1024x548.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6388\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/spx-di-1024x548.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/spx-di-300x160.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/spx-di-768x411.png 768w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/spx-di-1536x822.png 1536w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/spx-di.png 1658w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><br><br><br>VNQ, a proxy for composite US real estate valuation, shows two series of 3-phase  fractal series progressions  from the March 2020 low: a 8+\/24\/14 months :: x\/2.5x\/1.5x series, followed by a 7\/16 of 17\/14-17 month :: x\/2.5x\/2-2.5x series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/vnq-monthly-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"828\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/vnq-monthly-1-1024x828.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6384\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/vnq-monthly-1-1024x828.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/vnq-monthly-1-300x243.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/vnq-monthly-1-768x621.png 768w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/vnq-monthly-1.png 1315w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>On a weekly basis the second 3-phase series 7\/16 of 17\/14-17 month is a 29\/\/(13\/28\/28 of 32 )\/\/58-71 week :: x\/2.5x\/2-2.5x fractal decay series ending near the US 2026 midterm elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><br><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/VNQ-2-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"709\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/VNQ-2-1-1024x709.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6385\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/VNQ-2-1-1024x709.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/VNQ-2-1-300x208.png 300w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/VNQ-2-1-768x532.png 768w, http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/VNQ-2-1.png 1415w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Buffet indicator, total equity market cap to GNP, shows equity valuations are at a historical bubble high at about 208%. This is especially remarkable because of the relatively high ten year US Note interest yields. In April the last reported S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index was 329.608, also a historical high valuation, in spite of &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/2025\/07\/14\/after-the-16-july-2025-acwi-global-equity-valuation-peak-a-crash-devaluation-will-occur-over-4-5-weeks-the-fractal-progression-of-a-us-real-estate-composite-proxy-vnq\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">After the 15 July 2025 ACWI Global Equity Valuation Peak or Secondary High Peak, A Crash Devaluation Will Occur Over 18 trading days &#8230; The Fractal Progression of a US Real Estate Composite Proxy: VNQ &#8230;<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6365"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6365\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6390,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6365\/revisions\/6390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}