{"id":6148,"date":"2025-03-14T22:32:44","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T22:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/?p=6148"},"modified":"2025-03-16T21:13:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-16T21:13:02","slug":"the-2025-global-equity-crash-peak-3-phase-lammert-spx-fractal-series-valuation-growth-and-incipient-4-phase-lammert-fractal-series-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/2025\/03\/14\/the-2025-global-equity-crash-peak-3-phase-lammert-spx-fractal-series-valuation-growth-and-incipient-4-phase-lammert-fractal-series-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"19 Feb 2025 SPX Peak Valuation and the Initial 2025 Global Equity CRASH Fractal Series Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The US asset-debt macroeconomic hegemony’s composite equity class peaked in November 2021 completing a x\/2.5x\/2.5x 1807, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractal 36\/90\/90 year :: x\/2.5x\/2.5x maximum peak valuation. What propelled it to its new 27 October 2023 55\/139\/138 day :: x\/2.5x\/2.5x SPX 19 Feb 2025 and 21 Feb 2025 peak and secondary valuation – about 30% higher than the Nov 2021 peak?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The answer is US federal deficit to GDP % spending which in 2020 was nearly 14.7% and greater than that % in 1942, America’s first year in WW2. Deficit spending was 11.7% in 2021 and has continued to be historically high at 5.3 to 6.3% in subsequent years. Even frozen with the CR at last year’s level, recession will place the % at a higher level than 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current fractal decay model takes in consideration the fractal evolution of the HangSeng, Shanghai, European, and Nikkei markets.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Within this model a prior interpolated Feb 19 2025 3\/8\/8 day decay series model predicted and posted on 28 Feb 2025 is observable. This prior model that does not meet the underlying trend line requirement that defines fractals. See old model below:<\/p>\n\n\n

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The Wilshire has already lost over 5 trillion of its worth since its Feb 2025 peak. The current 4 phase SPX decay fractal series model of 7\/14 of 16-17\/17\/11 days :: y\/2-2.5y\/2-2.5y\/1.5y matches the weekly Wilshire 4 phase decay series shown below. Decay starts on week 29(or technically week 30 noting that the first week of 5 August 2024 was upgoing) of the 3rd growth fractal of a 13-\/30\/30 week :: x\/2.5x\/2.5x 3- phase fractal growth series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 2\/3 of 4\/4\/3 week :: y\/2y\/2y\/1.5y 4-phase decay fractal is observable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that the 27 Oct 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 trend line has been breached and already there is a nonlinear gapped lower low ON A WEEKLY chart. The gapped lower low so early in the decay fractal series and on a weekly time unit basis portends severe devaluation near term.<\/p>\n\n\n

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As a reminder, the interpolated primary series is a 1982 13\/32-33 year :: x\/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series.<\/p>\n\n\n

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