{"id":5395,"date":"2023-06-25T19:54:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-25T19:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/?p=5395"},"modified":"2023-06-25T19:56:11","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T19:56:11","slug":"quantitative-saturation-fractal-macroeconomics-the-march-2020-y-2-2-5y-2-2-5y-33-72-68-of-72-week-decay-series-and-the-four-week-july-2023-equity-commodity-and-crypto-global-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/25\/quantitative-saturation-fractal-macroeconomics-the-march-2020-y-2-2-5y-2-2-5y-33-72-68-of-72-week-decay-series-and-the-four-week-july-2023-equity-commodity-and-crypto-global-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Quantitative Saturation Fractal Macroeconomics: \u00a0The March 2020 Y\/2-2.5y\/2-2.5y :: 33\/72\/68 of 72 Week Decay Series And The Four Week July 2023 Equity, Commodity, and Crypto Global Crash\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Above: x\/2.5x\/2x Nikkei Growth followed by y\/2-2.5y\/2-2.5y Decay<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observable within the US hegemony 1807 great fractal pattern of x\/2.5x\/2.5x\/1.5x :: 36\/90\/90\/54 years with equity valuation lows in 1842-43 and 1932, and third\u00a0fractal 90 year peak valuation in November 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also observable is an interpolated \u00a01981-82 fractal pattern of 13\/30 years :: x\/2-2.5x.\u00a0 This 1981-82 first and second fractal series began with US central bank QT resulting in a May-July 1981 peak prime rate of 20.5% to control inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historical %-GDP Deficit US defence spending initially maintained composite equity prices. Thereafter. over the next 40-42 years – falling interest rates, globalization of manufacturing with grossly cheaper\u00a0labor cost,\u00a0transoceanic shipment of goods, trade of hegemony\u00a0petro-dollars and Euros\u00a0for those manufactured goods, \u00a0repeal of 1930’s investment laws, looser bank lending regulations, lower corporate taxes, increased corporate buy-backs, financial engineering with tranching of CDO’s\u00a0and CLO’s, gross assessment and lending fraud, and US, Euro, and Chinese central bank QE and lending programs with low, near zero and negative sovereign bond\u00a0rates – have pushed composite equity valuations and property valuation to the November 8 2021 zenith and recent secondary peak valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During this 40 year time plus period, there have been over-investment bubbles propelled by the \u00a0above cited stimulus\u00a0modalities \u00a0in 1987, 2000, 2008, 2020, and 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the interpolated 1981-82 first and second fractal series, a sudden nonlinear ending is expected between 2x and 2.5x of the x base fractal. With x equal to 13 year, the nonlinear ending is expected between 26 and 32 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US, Japanese, and Chinese equity markets; cryptocurrencies, gold, and  global CRB indices  all  have synchronized monthly and weekly  fractal patterns, for crash devaluations over the next 4 trading weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current weekly and monthly \u00a0fractal patterns began at the March 2020 global covid pandemic low valuations in March 2020. In an unprecedented\u00a0fashion, the US money supply over 12-18 months was increased by 25 % resulting in inflation\u00a0and thereafter decreased by 5 percent in the QT phase to control the resulting inflation. The 2020-2021 unprecedented increase in money supply, low interest rates and MBS programs have resulted in a supple bubble of equity and property valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The y\/2-2.5y\/2-2.5 decay fractal series for the composites from the March 2020 low are 14\/72\/72 weeks. Currently the decay series is 33\/72\/68 of 72 weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nikkei and its proxy DXJ fund have done among the best of global equities with a 33\/72\/66-67 week :: x\/2-2.5x\/2x valuation growth pattern.\u00a0 See above green graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DXJ and Nikkei have matching first and second fractal patterns: 33 weeks: 6\/15\/14 weeks and 72 weeks 14\/30\/30 weeks. DXJ’s current \u00a067-68 third fractal blow-off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DXJ diverges slightly from the Nikkei and is composed of a 10\/21\/25 week fractal series followed by a blow.-off series of 4\/8-9\/4 of 8 weeks for a total of 72 weeks. The final four weeks\u00a0 are expected to complete a composite decay series of 33\/72\/72 weeks or 8\/18\/17 months. See above red graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the Hang Seng index the March 2020 first and second fractals are likewise composed of 33\/72 weeks. The third 72 week decay fractal is composed of 10\/25\/25\/11 of 15 weeks. The second\u00a025 week fractal of this x\/2.5x\/2.5x\/1.5x series took the HSI below its 2011 low – a telltale valuation sign of what s to come in the next four weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fractal patterns predict a Chinese property valuation crash and banking\/equity crash (Shanghai Property Index and Bank\u00a0of Shanghai\/Shanghai Composite) \u00a0over the next four weeks. These patterns will be self-evident and detailed in follow-on postings as will the closing fractal patterns for crypto, gold, oil, and the CRB composite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That the macroeconomy operates in a self-organizing fashion allows the label of a science to its intrinsic nature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Above: x\/2.5x\/2x Nikkei Growth followed by y\/2-2.5y\/2-2.5y Decay Observable within the US hegemony 1807 great fractal pattern of x\/2.5x\/2.5x\/1.5x :: 36\/90\/90\/54 years with equity valuation lows in 1842-43 and 1932, and third\u00a0fractal 90 year peak valuation in November 2021. Also observable is an interpolated \u00a01981-82 fractal pattern of 13\/30 years :: x\/2-2.5x.\u00a0 This 1981-82 first … Continue reading Quantitative Saturation Fractal Macroeconomics: \u00a0The March 2020 Y\/2-2.5y\/2-2.5y :: 33\/72\/68 of 72 Week Decay Series And The Four Week July 2023 Equity, Commodity, and Crypto Global Crash\u00a0<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5395"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5395\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5400,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5395\/revisions\/5400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.economicfractalist.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}